The 2025 trade deadline was an eventful one for the Twins. By letting go of some key contributors (Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and more), they received a mix of prospects and controllable big-leaguers. One of those players, Taj Bradley, has already been a positive contributor. However, another acquisition from the deadline made the Opening Day roster, and it hasn’t been as fruitful a start for James Outman.
Outman was acquired in a trade with the World Series champion Dodgers on July 31, in which the Twins sent Brock Stewart to Los Angeles. Stewart pitched in only four games for the Dodgers post-trade, allowing 2 earned runs in 3 2/3 innings. He’d then miss the rest of the season due to a right shoulder injury, which resulted in surgery. As for Outman, he wasn’t much better for the Twins at the back end of last year, hitting .147/.221/.337 in 104 plate appearances across 37 games. The former 7th-round pick struck out 45 times last season, while only walking 8 times. His overall advanced metrics from last year weren’t great, either. His bat speed was around league average at 72.6 MPH, but his expected slugging average, average exit velocity, Squared Up%, Whiff%, and Strikeout% were all scary.
His first full season with Minnesota has begun with worse results from Outman, as many Twins fans have noticed. He’s appeared in 11 games but has only amassed 15 plate appearances, hitting .000/.067/.000 with 8 strikeouts. It’s been quite a fall from grace for Outman, who was third in NL Rookie of the Year Award voting back in 2023, finishing behind unanimous winner Corbin Carroll and starter Kodai Senga. Outman hit .248/.353/.437 with 23 home runs in 567 plate appearances that year, amassing 3.4 bWAR. The advanced metrics from that year look noticeably better, though Outman did overperform his batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA by considerable amounts when compared to the expected values.
Outman is obviously nowhere near his offensive output from the 2023 season, but let’s try to be positive for a moment. He’s been bad, sure, but he isn’t playing every day. Byron Buxton locks down the center field spot, as does Matt Wallner in right, with Austin Martin and Trevor Larnach splitting time in left. Outman’s appearances are primarily limited to defensive and baserunning situations in the later innings, which should work to some extent. Outman has been a plus baserunner during his MLB career. He’s shown that this year, stealing two bases already, and has 21 career stolen bases. Defensively, his arm strength is his calling card, as he’s been in the 78th percentile or above in each of his MLB seasons. His other defensive metrics haven’t graded out well as of late, as his OAA has dropped each year since that impressive rookie campaign in 2023. However, Outman is almost certainly still a better defender than Larnach, while Martin is around the same defensively as the former Dodger. If he were out there more often, Outman might be showing more of what he can do. The fact that the Twins have faced a disproportionate number of lefties this spring has only made the job of all their lefty batters harder.
What does the path forward look like for the Twins outfield? As stated previously, Outman isn’t playing a whole lot, and that’s unlikely to change. Meanwhile, beyond the active big-league roster, the team has fellow trade acquisition Alan Roden and top prospects Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Gabriel Gonzalez waiting for a chance at Triple-A St. Paul.Â
How soon might it make sense to jettison Outman (he can’t be optioned to the minors) and turn to one of those guys? In truth, letting Outman keep trying it for a bit makes more sense. The blockage I mentioned above will constrain any new player added to the mix. Roden, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez all need playing time. Thus, they’re better off in the minors, until something changes.
Should one of the big-league incumbents get hurt, the player called up to replace them on the roster is likely to leapfrog Outman into regular duty. Unless and until that happens, though, letting Outman keep sponging up the work of the last position player on the roster is the best move. As ugly as his performance has been, he’s only meant to be lightly used, anyway. Still, eventually, he has to do something right, or else be shoved aside in the name of finding wins.