Dan Johnson takes you through his preview, prediction, and best bet for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox.
Boston rolls into St. Louis still trying to find innings that carry. Twelve games in, the Red Sox sit at 4-8, scoring 3.67 runs per night, with stretches where traffic builds and then disappears before it turns into anything. The Cardinals have been steadier at 7-5, and the split that matters tonight already shows up—at-bats against left-handed pitching that extend, put the ball in play, and force pitchers to work through contact instead of around it. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the St. Louis Cardinals and the Boston Red Sox.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
It’s a revenge game for this Red Sox offense, probably. Former Boston-cup-of-coffee-tripper Dustin May’s 15.95 ERA is loud, but the real driver is the contact profile underneath it: 94.1 mph average exit velocity allowed, 55.2% hard-hit rate, 10.3% barrel rate, and a .403 xwOBA. That is sustained damage, not sequencing noise. Boston doesn’t need six hits in an inning to score—it needs one ball squared up and a little traffic. Connelly Early, on the other side, brings a cleaner surface line (2.89 ERA) but a very different risk profile: lower strikeout shape, more balls in play, and dependence on sequencing. That becomes important against a St. Louis lineup that owns a .797 OPS and .358 OBP vs left-handed pitching, meaning Early is far more likely to pitch through contact than escape innings with strikeouts. Both offenses have a path, here.
The player layer sharpens how those paths actually materialize. Boston’s production is concentrated, right now, and that’s their weakness. Wilyer Abreu has been the standout with a 240 wRC+ vs righties, while Willson Contreras (136 wRC+) and Ceddanne Rafaela (121 wRC+) provide secondary support. But the drop-off is steep: Trevor Story (17 wRC+ vs RHP), Marcelo Mayer (26), and Caleb Durbin (16) have yet to contribute consistent pressure, though they’re trending up. That means Boston’s path is won’t necessarily be relying on top-half damage and, maybe one additional scoring pocket. This could be a return to form for the whole lineup, as my colleague Zach Thompson notes here, and here.
St. Louis is more balanced in this specific split. Lefty-bashers Jordan Walker (an absurd 392 wRC+ vs LHP) and Ramón Urías (also absurd 311) give them real right-handed thump against Early, while Victor Scott II (164) adds a contact-and-speed element. The Cardinals don’t need one bat to explode—they can stack singles and force Early into multi-run innings.
Red Sox vs. Cardinals pick, best bet
On the surface, Boston’s offense hasn’t been good enough to justify an over. They are sitting at 3.67 runs per game, with a .666 OPS, and their likely lineup still has multiple dead zones that can kill rallies. There’s also the argument that May’s prior history against Boston hitters is stronger than his current form—.172 average, .199 wOBA allowed in 33 PA—which suggests the matchup may not be as one-sided as the Statcast page implies. But that resistance breaks when you isolate current contact quality. May isn’t just allowing base runners—he’s allowing impact contact at scale, and Boston doesn’t need to be elite to reach four runs against that profile. Add in that St. Louis’ bullpen has been merely average recently—4.90 ERA over the last 10 games—and the game doesn’t end when May exits. Boston has multiple entry points to reach this number.
The game shape reinforces that over more than any early-inning angle. Boston doesn’t need to win the first five—it needs nine innings of scoring opportunity against a starter allowing a .403 xwOBA and a bullpen that hasn’t shut games down. St. Louis’ ability to hit lefties also keeps this from turning into a low-event game script; if the Cardinals push back early, it forces Boston to keep scoring instead of coasting. This is a game that can sit 2-2 or 3-2 by the middle innings, then open just enough late to push Boston across the number.
Best bet: Red Sox team total over 3.5.
Best bet: Red Sox TT o3.5 runs (-135) at Cardinals
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