Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today

The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Cardinals

Red Sox vs Cardinals Over / Under today: 8 Runs

Red Sox / Cardinals TV Channel: FOX

The Boston Red Sox (-145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (+120) on April 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 pm in St. Louis, MO.

This season, the Red Sox are 4-9 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 7-5 ATS.

Red Sox vs Cardinals Starting Pitchers Today:

Red Sox starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 0-1, 9.40 ERA

Cardinals starting pitcher: Kyle Leahy 1-1, 5.40 ERA

Red Sox vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineRed Sox-1.5 +120O 8 -115-145Cardinals +1.5 -145U 8 -105+120

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 59.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 44% ROI)

Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.35 Units / 55% ROI)

Caleb Durbin has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)

Wilyer Abreu has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+8.90 Units / 148% ROI)

Trevor Story has hit the RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+8.05 Units / 201% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Jordan Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games (+24.10 Units / 241% ROI)

Ivan Herrera has hit the Walks Over in his last 9 games (+13.85 Units / 154% ROI)

Jordan Walker has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.80 Units / 54% ROI)

Masyn Winn has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 25% ROI)

Masyn Winn has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+7.80 Units / 25% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.25 Units / 17% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.60 Units / 31% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.40 Units / 13% ROI)

The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 40 away games (+0.70 Units / 1% ROI)

Cardinals Best Bets Today:

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.90 Units / 37% ROI)

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.50 Units / 25% ROI)

The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+6.50 Units / 17% ROI)

The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.95 Units / 47% ROI)

The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.05 Units / 34% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 3-10 against the Run Line (-7.05 Units / -49.13% ROI).

4-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.8 Units / -44.44% ROI

6-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -11.97% ROI

7-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 2.41% ROI

Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cardinals are 7-5 against the Run Line (+0.5 Units / 2.79% ROI).

8-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 30.48% ROI

6-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -3.57% ROI

6-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.9 Units / -6.12% ROI

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals

The Red Sox are just 4-8 (.333) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.

The Red Sox are just 4-9 (.308) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 0-8 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .027.

The Red Sox were 37-14 (.725) when they scored in the first inning in the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .636.

Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Cardinals are 8-5 (.615) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals were just 7-11 (.389) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cardinals are 28-18 (.609) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2024 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .499.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters have chased 24% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Red Sox are batting .258 against LHP since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB.

Red Sox hitters came to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,740 of their 6,208 plate appearances (28%) in the 2025 season — highest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have struck out in just 16% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Cardinals are batting just .121 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Cardinals hitters slugged just .380 against RHP in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Cardinals hitters had an OPS of just .692 (4,388 PA’s) against RHP in the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Cardinals hitters have an OPS of just .945 (1,270 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers since the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 3.84 (705.1 IP) on the road in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2025 season — 4th highest in MLB.

Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% this season — lowest in MLB.

Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 19% against Cardinals pitchers this month (8 games) — lowest in MLB.

Batters facing the Cardinals pitchers put 41% of their swings in play in the 2025 season — tied for highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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