Sean Barnard takes you through his preview and prediction for Saturday’s game between the Boston Red Sox and St. Louis Cardinals.

It is a loaded day of MLB action with all 30 teams facing off across the slate. With the first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET, the Boston Red Sox will take on the St. Louis Cardinals.

This is the second game of the three-game series in this interleague matchup. St. Louis won the series opener 3-2 on Friday, and the next two matchups will wrap up their lone series against each other this season.

The Red Sox enter as a 1.5-run favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Cardinals sit as a +119 underdog. The run total is set at eight runs.

Red Sox at Cardinals prediction, preview

It has been a frustrating start to the season for the Red Sox, who enter with a 4-9 overall record. The loss to the Cardinals yesterday snapped a two-game winning streak, their lone positive stretch this year. On the season, Boston is 3-10 to the run line, and the over/under is 6-7 in this year’s matchups.

Ranger Suarez is set to make the start for the Red Sox on Saturday, who has not lived up to his early expectations. The free agent addition boasts a concerning 8.64 ERA, allowing eight earned runs and 13 total hits across his 8.1 innings pitched. Suarez has faced the projected Cardinals lineup in just 12 at-bats and allowed three hits in his career. St. Louis is posting slash lines of .250/.250/.250 without a run tallied in this small sample size.

The Red Sox bats have been equally a part of their slow start to the year. As a team, Boston is posting slash lines of .221/.303/.344 with just a .646 OPS. Wilyer Abreau has been the biggest bright spot, leading the American League with 20 hits and a .392 batting average. Abreau also leads the Red Sox with three home runs and is tied with Trevor Story with a team-high nine RBIs. Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Willson Contreras, and Marcelo Mayer also play key roles.

The St. Louis Cardinals enter with an 8-5 record on the season and sit second in the NL Central. They enter this matchup on a three-game winning streak and have won four of their past five. On the season, St. Louis has gone 7-6 to the run line, and the over/under is 6-6-1.

Kyle Leahy will be on the mound for the Cardinals Saturday night. The 28-year-old is in his fourth season with the organization and is posting a 5.40 ERA through his opening two starts. Leahy has allowed 13 hits and six earned runs across his first 10.0 innings pitched, with five strikeouts tallied. The Red Sox have faced the Cardinals’ starter in just seven at-bats and tallied three hits in these opportunities. Caleb Durbin is 2-3 against Leahy with an RBI, and the Red Sox as a team are posting slash lines of /429/.429/.571 in this small sample size.

At the plate, the Cardinals enter this matchup posting collective slash lines of .228/.329/.359 with a .688 OPS. Jordan Walker is tied for an MLB-best five home runs, along with a team-high 15 hits and 12 RBIs. Alec Burleson has added 12 hits and 10 RBIs, while Ivan Herrera has shown impressive patience at the plate with an American League-leading 13 walks. Pedro Pages, Masyn Winn, and Ramon Urias also play notable roles.

Red Sox at Cardinals pick, best bet

It has been just about a nightmare start to the season for the Red Sox, given the caliber of talent this roster offers and expectations entering the year. But this is a chance to get back on track and begin building momentum, which I expect them to take full advantage of.

Ranger Suarez has disappointed in his opening two starts, allowing four earned runs in each and failing to make it past 4.1 innings. But the left-hander is one of the more mentally strong pitchers in the league and feels primed for a bounce-back game. Suarez has been passable in limited sample sizes against these opponents and will settle in as the season progresses to reach All-Star-caliber impact. Facing a Cardinals team that ranks 24th in the league in hits, this is a good place to start.

In contrast, Kyle Leahy should have a lower level of confidence. He has not thrown more than 88.0 innings in a season in his MLB career and enters this year with a 5.40 ERA. He battles some walk issues at times and allows hard contact to opponents. Leahy has given up five and eight hits and six earned runs through his opening two starts, while being kept on a relatively short leash. Expect Boston to tag him for some runs on Saturday.

If he is to be chased early, the St. Louis bullpen offers a 5.02 ERA and 1.52 WHIP on the season. They have conceded 48 hits, 29 earned runs, five home runs, and have walked 30 batters already this season.

Given the concerns with the pitching matchup, my lean is toward the game total going over the run line. But I am backing Ranger Suarez to do enough to put forth a respectable start and give the Red Sox a chance to win. With concerns about the Cardinals’ bullpen as well, I am backing the Red Sox to cover the 1.5-run line. They are a far better baseball team than they have played to this point, and expect Boston to capitalize on this opportunity to get back on track.

Best bet: Red Sox -1.5 (+123)

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