The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Diamondbacks

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs

Diamondbacks / Phillies TV Channel: FS1 | DBTV | NSPA

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-135) on April 11, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 pm in Philadelphia, PA.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 8-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 3-10 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:

Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 0-0, 6.76 ERA

Phillies starting pitcher: Taijuan Walker 0-2, 8.72 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneylineDiamondbacks+1.5 -190O 8.5 -105+115Phillies -1.5 +155U 8.5 -115-135

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

Jose Fernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 games (+10.00 Units / 143% ROI)

Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.90 Units / 35% ROI)

Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.85 Units / 50% ROI)

Brandon Pfaadt has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.35 Units / 43% ROI)

Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.90 Units / 67% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:

Bryce Harper has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.75 Units / 35% ROI)

Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+10.50 Units / 37% ROI)

Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Bryson Stott has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 35% ROI)

Brandon Marsh has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+8.50 Units / 142% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.45 Units / 24% ROI)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 16 away games (+12.20 Units / 65% ROI)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 45 games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 50 games (+9.30 Units / 17% ROI)

The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)

Phillies Best Bets Today:

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+7.50 Units / 12% ROI)

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)

The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)

The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+6.35 Units / 15% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 11-3 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 34.94% ROI).

8-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 22.64% ROI

9-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 29.68% ROI

4-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -37.91% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 3-10 against the Run Line (-7.1 Units / -50.35% ROI).

6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.8 Units / -21.33% ROI

7-5 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.5 Units / 10.38% ROI

5-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.55 Units / -18.02% ROI

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Diamondbacks are just 74-15 (.831) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .908.

The Diamondbacks were just 67-7 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.

The Diamondbacks were just 61-17 (.782) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Diamondbacks are just 67-19 (.779) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Phillies are 17-52 (.246) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Phillies were 15-45 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.

The Phillies are 44-28 (.611) after a loss since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .482.

The Phillies are 29-99 (.227) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .133.

Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks hitters struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are batting .268 against LHP since the 2024 season — best in MLB.

Diamondbacks hitters have struck out in just 17% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .502 (144 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Phillies are batting just .159 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Phillies hitters have chased 20% of pitches out of the zone on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Phillies hitters had an OBP of just .292 (730 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 5% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 21% in the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends

Phillies pitchers have walked 7% of batters since the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers have walked 6% of batters this season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2025 season — best in MLB.

Phillies pitchers walked 7% of batters in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

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