Generally speaking, the Phillies bullpen has improved as the season has moved along. The unit as a whole rebounded from a very rough start to pitch more akin to what was expected before the season started. However, one key cog that hasn’t quite settled into a groove is Matt Strahm.
Strahm was roughed up a bit in the first game of the doubleheader yesterday, as he blew a two-run lead and allowed the Braves to then tie the game at 4-4. He allowed three hits, all of which were for extra bases with a home run and two doubles. It wasn’t the only time this week Strahm has surrendered a lead. He surrendered a one-run lead in the eighth on Sunday in Sacramento when he allowed two runs and ultimately suffered the loss.
For the season, Strahm’s numbers aren’t terrible. He entered the nightcap of yesterday’s doubleheader with a 3.86 ERA across 26 appearances. However, he’s allowing more baserunners than he has in the past during his tenure in Philadelphia, as his WHIP sat at 1.23 before yesterday’s games. Opponents are hitting over .250 against Strahm as opposed to a .165 batting average against last season and a .215 BA against in 2023.
Perhaps the most concerning thing is Strahm’s drop in velocity. The 33-year-old lefty doesn’t throw hard to begin with, but his average fastball velocity is down to 91.9 MPH from 93.4 MPH last season. His slider’s velo is holding, but he’s seen a significant decrease in whiffs on that pitch, down to 18.2% from 32.4% last season.
It must be said however, that Strahm’s peripherals paint a different picture. His 2.10 FIP and 2.55 xERA show that he is outperforming his traditional numbers by at least a small amount. In fact, his xFIP of 3.16 is nearly identical to last season’s number of 3.15. Strahm’s xwOBA of .264 is among the top 10 % of the league and he is among the league’s best at avoiding barrels (1.7%) and enticing hitters to chase (39%).
Pitchers go into slumps just like hitters, and maybe that’s all that’s wrong with Strahm. This week could easily just be a blip on the radar for the rest of the season. Orion Kerkering has recently shaken off his rough patch, so there’s reason to believe that Strahm can as well. Perhaps Strahm is being penalized in perception because he was so good last year that he set an unattainable standard. After all, Strahm was only one of seven relievers to have a 2 fWAR season in 2024. It’s very difficult for a reliever to post a 2.1 fWAR season, let alone do it in back-to-back years.
But with José Alvarado’s suspension, the Phillies need Strahm to be much closer to his 2024 self than he has shown so far this season. He is now their unquestioned top left-hander in the bullpen and arguably their best high leverage arm. The only lefty behind him currently in the bullpen is Tanner Banks. Strahm is likely going to be forced to pitch more than either he or the team would like as they try to piece their way forward without Alvarado.
So, are you concerned with Matt Strahm? If so, how much? Or is this just a case of a relief pitcher struggling over a small sample? Or could it be a harbinger of things to come?