The Milwaukee Brewers’ season has mostly been a success to this point, but a six-game losing streak has them at 12-9, which is somehow only good for fourth place in the National League Central.
Nothing about the Brewers’ performance suggests that they should be a fourth-place team, but they’ve also shown themselves to have flaws, which may indicate that they won’t cake walk to a division title again.
It’s not easy to say at this point in the season how good or bad a team might be, but by looking at some of the trends and assessing how likely they are to continue, we can start to flesh out the bigger picture. Here are the trends we believe are likely to last versus those we believe are unsustainable.
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Real: Brewers offense is an issue without injured stars
Milwaukee lost Jackson Chourio before the season began, Andrew Vaughn one game in, and Christian Yelich after just 15 games. They’ve won their last two series after the aforementioned six-game slide, but the offense hasn’t scored more than five runs in regulation.
The good news, of course, is that all of the aforementioned stars should be back before the All-Star break. But until then, Brice Turang and William Contreras are seemingly being asked to carry the load by themselves.
Fake: Chad Patrick as Milwaukee’s ERA leader 
Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Chad Patrick throws during the first inning of their game against the Toronto Blue Jays Wednesday, April 15, 2026 at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
If we want to talk about the larger trend of the Brewers’ starting pitching thriving, as die-hards expected them to do in a post-Freddy Peralta trade world, we can certainly do so. But Patrick’s 0.95 ERA through four outings and 19 innings is unsustainable.
Patrick’s 3.97 FIP to this point is actually higher than his 3.53 mark of last season, when he put up the exact same 3.53 figure as an ERA, yet somehow went 3-8. If he’s mid-threes the rest of the way, Milwaukee will take it.
Real: Joey Ortiz’s job is in jeopardy 
Apr 14, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Joey Ortiz (3) hits a sacrifice bunt during the sixth inning of their game against the Toronto Blue Jays at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-Imagn Images | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel-Imagn Images
Coming into the season, the 27-year-old Ortiz knew he had to answer questions about his league-worst offense from a year ago. Instead, he’s once again plummeted toward the bottom of the OPS leaderboard, with a dismal .464 mark entering Monday.
Unlike last year, however, the Brewers have options. They can call up Jett Williams, their No. 3 prospect, or Cooper Pratt, their No. 4, who recently signed an eight-year extension. The defense has been good, but that can only take you so far in this league.
Fake: Luis Rengifo’s brutal start
If the Brewers can look for anyone to turn things around in the coming weeks, it’s probably Rengifo, who has a .494 OPS of his own, but who has also been victimized by bad luck.
According to Baseball Savant, Rengifo’s 53-point difference between wOBA and xWOBA is the 34th-largest in the sport so far. That doesn’t mean he’s close to being an All-Star, but it probably indicates that he can be closer to a league-average bat in the weeks and months to come.
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