It’s Atlanta Braves baseball! Let’s break down everything you need to know about this evening’s matchup.
First Pitch: 1:35 PM ET
Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
TV: BravesVision
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
Weather: 77° and partly sunny, wind N at 6 mph
RF Ronald Acuña Jr.
C Drake Baldwin
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
DH Michael Harris II
3B Austin Riley
LF Mauricio Dubón
CF Eli White
SS Jorge Mateo
Quick thoughts:
SS Trea Turner
DH Kyle Schwarber
1B Bryce Harper
LF Felix Reyes
RF Adolis Garcìa
3B Alec Bohm
2B Edmundo Sosa
CF Dylan Moore
C Rafael Marchán
Quick thoughts:
Quick snapshot:
Pitch mix:
vs LHH: 48% slider, 27% sinker, 25% four-seamer
vs RHH: 43% sinker, 43% slider, 13% changeup, 1% sinker
What to watch:
As always, it’s Philly’s Big Three, who have different levels of success off of Sale. Kyle Schwarber has two homers and four RBI in 17 ABs, hitting .294, while Trea Turner is batting .313 (16 ABs) and Bryce Harper just .167 (12 ABs).
Quick snapshot:
The arsenal:
Knuckle Curve (29%, 78.5 mph)
Four-seamer (29%, 91.7 mph)
Sinker (20%, 90.8 mph)
Changeup (12%, 85.2 mph)
Cutter (10%, 86.1 mph)
How he attacked hitters (all graphics courtesy of Thomas Nestico)
vs LHH: Fastballs early, knuckle curve or sinker as the putaway pitch, changeups mixed throughout
vs RHH: Balanced three pitch mix between sinker, curveball, four-seamer. Knuckle curves are most prevalent late in the count, four-seamer is the second putaway pitch
Sequencing:
How to read a plinko chart: Each circle represents the usage of a pitcher’s arsenal in a given count (color key is on the bottom of the graphic). The thickness of the connecting lines reflects how often each count occurs, helping show how a pitcher navigates an at-bat.
Likely available:
Used recently:
While Tyler Kinley and Dylan Lee both pitched last night, I’d imagine that they’re on the table if needed to secure a series win this afternoon.
Potential limitations:
That being said, last night was Lee’s third appearance in four days and Kinley threw 24 pitches, so if you can give them the day off, that’d be nice.
Quick takeaway:
Likely available:
Used recently:
Potential limitations:
… and those pitch counts are climbing, with virtually the entire Philly pen in the orange for pitch count. However, even Orion Kerkering (37 pitches in the last three days) is likely on the table if it’s the difference in a much-needed series win or their sixth consecutive series loss.
Quick takeaway:
I expect manager Rob Thomson to use any and all of his relievers to secure a win, especially in light of Dave Dombrowski-favorite Alex Cora being fired in Boston yesterday.
Aaron Nola’s fastballs have been some of the worst in the sport this year, with that pitch group coming in at a 3rd-percentile mark of -6 Run Value. Can Atlanta’s hitters take advantage?
Philly hitter to watch: Alec Bohm. The slumping third baseman has a surprising .313 average off of Chris Sale in 16 career ABs, although it comes with an unfortunate .666 OPS.
Atlanta’s favored by a run and a half (FanDuel) in what’s expected to be a low-scoring game. This pitching matchup feels pretty slanted towards the Braves, considering each starter’s recent performances and Atlanta’s history against Aaron Nola. But this is Braves/Phillies, and nothing about these matchups is ever normal.
If you’d rather watch than read this, here’s the Braves Today live stream from this morning, after lineups were announced.