Eric Rosales
• Betting Analyst
27+ years betting experience
Updated:
Jun 25, 2026 , 09:02 AM ET
• 4 min read
Seth Lugo gives the Royals a huge pitching advantage today, per our MLB expert.
EXPERT PICK – MONEYLINE
Kansas City +124
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals.
The Kansas City Royals will look for a second straight series win when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday, June 25.
With a distinct pitching advantage, my Royals vs. Rays predictions and MLB picks have the AL Central bottom-dwellers coming up aces as the road dog against a Tampa side that’s struggling to string together wins.
Who will win Royals vs Rays today: Royals moneyline (+124)
The Kansas City Royals‘ offense has done heavy lifting this series, but pitching should carry them Thursday.
Seth Lugo has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of his last four starts, and the Tampa Bay Rays have historically been kept off balance with his high-spin curveball with a sinking and four-seam fastball.
Tampa’s offense is batting .222 in the series with 26 strikeouts. On the mound, the Rays will use opener Casey Legumina and funnel innings into a taxed bullpen (4.59 ERA).
With the cleaner starting edge and a more stable path through nine innings, I’d back the Royals up to -120.
COVERS INTEL: Lugo has dominated the Rays in his career, going 3-0 in three starts with a 1.86 ERA and 15 strikeouts. He’s pitched into the sixth inning in each of those starts.
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Royals vs Rays Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-103)
Even though Lugo has proven to shut the Rays down, Kansas City could be doing much of the heavy lifting to get to the Over themselves.
They’ve hit .283 collectively as a team in this series, pounding out 26 hits and 17 runs, and they’ll get to work over a not-so-great bullpen again Thursday.
For their struggles this series, totaling just eight runs in three games, the Rays are generally a better scoring team at home, where they own the best record in the AL.
They’re just outside the Top 10 in runs scored at home, at 4.69. The Over has hit in each of the last two games, and I like the trend to continue — though I would play it tight to that 8.5 line.
Eric Rosales’ 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 11-11, -0.27 units
Over/Under bets: 14-7, +7.13 units
Royals vs Rays weather
Dome.
Royals vs Rays odds
Moneyline: Royals +127 | Rays -133
Run line: Royals +1.5 | Rays -1.5
Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Royals vs Rays trend
Five of KC’s last six games have gone Over the total. Find more MLB betting trends for Royals vs. Rays.
How to watch Royals vs Rays and game info
Location
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
Date
Thursday, June 25, 2026
First pitch
12:10 p.m. ET
TV
Royals.TV, Rays.TV
Royals starting pitcher
Seth Lugo
(3-4, 3.69 ERA)
Rays starting pitcher
Casey Legumina
(2-1, 3.45 ERA)
Royals vs Rays latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.
Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.
When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.
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