The Chicago White Sox and Texas Rangers are both atop their respective divisions, albeit in a weak American League. These two clubs thrive on different ideologies, with the former largely leaning on a standout offense while the latter rides its pitching for the most part. That creates an interesting clash at Globe Life Field for the first game of this series tonight, with first pitch set for 8:05 p.m. ET.

Let’s five in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s White Sox vs. Rangers game, courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

White Sox vs. Rangers prediction, preview

As mentioned in the intro, both of these clubs are the current leaders in their respective divisions. The White Sox are 52-46 on the year with a slim one-game lead in the AL Central, plus a +45 run differential. The Rangers, meanwhile, are barely above .500 at 50-49 and have a -31 run differential, and they’re just half a game ahead of second in the AL West.

Let’s start with the starters, shall we? The White Sox deploy RHP Erick Fedde, who has bounced between a featured and a bulk role throughout the year with a 5-6 record across 19 appearances (nine starts). He comes into this outing with a 4.15 ERA, but a 1.42 WHIP and 60 strikeouts across 89.0 IP aren’t much to write home about. In particular, a low 15.4% K% is dragged down by chase and whiff rates in the third and fifth percentile, so he won’t be fooling many batters. As for the bullpen, Chicago sits 12th in cumulative ERA at 3.88 with a 1.33 WHIP and an 11.8% K-BB%.

Looking towards Texas, the Rangers send out star RHP Jacob deGrom. He’s 7-5 across 18 starts this season with an unusually high 3.49 ERA, but a 1.01 WHIP and his 122 strikeouts over 100.2 IP are much more typical for the former Cy Young arm. He carries an elite 30.4% K% into this contest and still delivers high velocity on the fastball with an average pitch of 97.2 mph, simultaneously keeping walks to a minimum with a 5.5% BB%. The club’s relievers are 17th in ERA at 4.22 with a 1.31 WHIP and 12.1% K-BB%.

There’s a big difference in quality between the starting arms, but that trend carries over to the bats as well. Chicago averages 4.79 runs per game and is 12th in team OPS at .729, also ranking third in ISO at .171 with the fourth-most home runs of any club (131). In the split against right-handed pitching, the White Sox slash .242/.320/.414 for a .734 OPS, hitting 91 of their homers against such arms. The Rangers’ lineup is generally much less productive with 4.16 runs per game and only 3.93 a night at their own ballpark at that. Despite a .719 OPS that falls 16th and a respectable .154 ISO, the run creation doesn’t always follow, even with the ninth-best average with RISP at .262. They’re also on the worse end of their splits tonight with a .243/.317/.394 slash line for a .711 OPS against righties, though 83 of the club’s 112 home runs have come off similar arms.

White Sox vs. Rangers pick, best bet

On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rangers are a -171 favorite on the Moneyline, largely thanks to deGrom’s presence on the bump. The White Sox come in with +141 odds to win outright with the run total set at a modest 7.5 tonight.

It’s tough to ignore that deGrom will likely set Texas up nicely tonight, and the bullpen is also quite solid as well. Beyond that, Globe Life Field is arguably the least hitter-friendly ballpark in the entire MLB, which doesn’t exactly help the case for scoring on either side. With that in mind, we’re looking elsewhere for betting value.

That leads us to the pitcher prop market, where a strikeouts bet for deGrom simply makes too much sense. The standout ace ranks eighth in the AL in strikeouts this season and has a 95th-percentile K%, also generating an 85th-percentile grade in chase rate and a 96th-percentile mark in whiff rate. “Well, he can strike pretty much anyone out,” might be the next words out of your mouth here. That would be correct, but even more true against this Chicago lineup — the White Sox have a K% of 23.8% that slots in sixth highest among all MLB clubs. While he has just seven games of over 7.5 strikeouts in 18 starts this season, three of those have come in deGrom’s last four starts and he’s done so four times in seven outings since June 1. With the strikeout stuff working well, I like the over on this at plus value tonight.

Best bet: Jacob deGrom over 7.5 strikeouts (+120)