The NCAA super regional has arrived, and with it are a number of intriguing college baseball matchups.
Several under-the-radar teams will take center stage as seven of the 16 host teams were knocked out in the regional round. Most notably, after a season in which four SEC teams went to Omaha, just four of the 13 SEC teams that earned regional berths even made it to the super regional, and two of those teams (Tennessee and Arkansas) are playing each other.
The Tennessean assigned each super regional a competitiveness score based on each team’s average ranking across five different metrics − Warren Nolan’s RPI and Elo, D1Baseball’s Diamond Sports Ranking, the Kevin Pauga Index (KPI) and the Massey Rankings. The average ranking of the two teams in each super were subtracted to give a competitiveness score.
Here are the most intriguing matchups:
The most competitive super regional goes to …
One super regional stands out above the rest in the two teams being evenly matched. In fact, Auburn and Coastal Carolina are just 0.4 apart in their average ranking, with the Tigers just edging out the Chanticleers.
To make it more entertaining, Coastal Carolina and Auburn win games in very different ways. The Chanticleers have a formidable pitching staff ranked second in the country in ERA, while Auburn is a more offense-focused team led by star catcher/outfielder Ike Irish.
After the Auburn Super Regional, the next two most evenly matched are the Corvallis Super Regional between Oregon State and Florida State and the Louisville Super Regional between Louisville and Miami.
Is Florida State a road favorite?
Oregon State, playing the 2025 season as an independent, secured the No. 8 national seed while Florida State was No. 9. That gave the Beavers the right to host the super regional, but metrics like the Seminoles a bit better, ranking them the fifth-best team in a super regional compared to the eighth-best for Oregon State. The Seminoles can also start things off with star southpaw Jamie Arnold on the mound. But will that be enough to overcome the home-field advantage?
The biggest favorites to get to Omaha
As with any team that faces off against a 4-seed in a super regional, Duke is the biggest favorite to get to Omaha. The Blue Devils have never hosted either a regional or a super regional before and now face a home series against Murray State.
The Racers have proven to be frisky, eliminating Ole Miss and beating Georgia Tech, so it won’t be a cakewalk for Duke especially with star outfielder AJ Gracia suspended for the first game. But the path for the Blue Devils is there.
After the Blue Devils, North Carolina (against Arizona) and LSU (against West Virginia) are the biggest favorites.
One Omaha dark horse
The team has gone under the radar all season, but UTSA knocked out No. 2 national seed Texas and now will head to Los Angeles for a super regional with UCLA.
That super regional has a competitiveness ranking of 8.8, making it the fifth-most competitive super regional matchup. UTSA, making its first super regional appearance in program history, has the chance to get all the way to Omaha.
This year’s super regionals are much more competitive than last year’s
Last year, only one super regional (Georgia vs. NC State) had a competitiveness rating under 10. This year, five of the eight super regionals do. Whether you prefer a matchup of big-name heavyweights (Tennessee vs. Arkansas), a mid-major darling vs. an SEC stalwart (Auburn vs. Coastal Carolina), two teams from opposite sides of the country (Florida State vs. Oregon State) or a matchup of two underdogs looking to restore their team’s Omaha histories (Louisville vs. Miami).
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.