The Milwaukee Brewers are set to begin a 10-game homestand that features the Padres, Braves, and Cardinals on Friday evening. The first of those opponents, the San Diego Padres, will be in town through Sunday for three games. Milwaukee is on a roll, with nine wins in their last 10 games to improve to 34-29 on the season, though they remain five games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. Where their fate has changed, however, is in the NL Wild Card race, as they’re just a 1⁄2 game behind the Cardinals and Giants for the final playoff spot.

The Padres sit at 35-25 this season and have won three straight series with the chance to make it four on Thursday in their series finale with the Giants. They’re currently the second Wild Card, 1.5 games behind the Phillies.

On the injury front, Milwaukee’s Brandon Woodruff faced another setback in his latest rehab appearance, taking a 108.2-mph liner off his elbow. Luckily, the X-rays were negative, but it’s unclear how this will impact his return. Outfielders Blake Perkins and Garrett Mitchell have both had their returns pushed back to late June or July, while Nestor Cortes is out until the All-Star break. Prospects Tyler Black and Jeferson Quero are both mostly healthy, though it’s likely they’ll remain at Triple-A Nashville for at least a little while.

For San Diego, Yu Darvish, Michael King, Joe Musgrove, Jhony Brito, Logan Gillaspie, and Bryan Hoeing are all out for a depleted pitching staff. Veteran outfielder Jason Heyward is out until July or August with an oblique strain, and Xander Bogaerts is considered day-to-day with left shoulder soreness after exiting Wednesday’s game early.

Christian Yelich remains atop the home run leaderboard and his season stats look a whole lot better than they did two weeks ago, as he’s now hitting .237/.316/.430 with 13 HRs, 41 RBIs, 33 runs, and 10 steals. Jackson Chourio slugged his 10th homer of the year on Wednesday and has paired that with 12 steals and a team-high 18 doubles. Rhys Hoskins, William Contreras, Sal Frelick, and Brice Turang have also been key contributors this year. As a team, the Brewers are hitting .239/.315/.368 (.683 OPS ranks 24th) with 58 homers (23rd), 288 runs scored (eighth), and 82 steals (second).

Fernando Tatis Jr. is the leader of San Diego’s offense, with a .273/.345/.485 line and a team-high 13 homers. Manny Machado is hitting .314/.380/.484 with seven homers, while Gavin Sheets is having a nice season with an .809 OPS and 11 homers. Jackson Merrill has only played in 35 games due to injury, but he’s still hitting .319/.358/.507 with five homers. Overall, this is a pretty dangerous offense. As a team, the Padres are hitting .249/.315/.381 (.696 OPS ranks 19th) with 53 homers (25th), 251 runs scored (20th), and 46 steals (16th).

Jared Koenig and Abner Uribe are tied for the team lead with 30 appearances each for the Crew, with Uribe’s 1.53 ERA and 39 strikeouts leading the bullpen. Grant Anderson, Nick Mears, and Trevor Megill have all been solid, while DL Hall, Rob Zastryzny, and Aaron Ashby have also been lights out so far. As a staff, the Brewers have a 3.91 team ERA (17th), including a 3.48 starter ERA (sixth) and a 4.42 reliever ERA (21st). They’ve struck out 512 batters (15th) over 557 1⁄3 innings.

Jason Adam leads one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 1.45 ERA across 31 innings. He’s joined by Jeremiah Estrada (2.36 ERA, 40 Ks in 26 2⁄3 innings), Adrian Morejon (2.92 ERA, 22 Ks in 24 2⁄3 innings), and closer Robert Suarez (1.98 era, 29 Ks in 27 1⁄3 innings with 19 saves). Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui, Sean Reynolds, and David Morgan are also featured out of the ‘pen for San Diego. As a staff, the Padres have a 3.56 ERA (eighth), including a 3.90 starter ERA (17th) and a 3.14 reliever ERA (fourth). They’ve struck out 523 batters (12th) in 534 innings.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, June 5 @ 7:10 p.m.: Chad Patrick (2.97 ERA, 3.29 FIP) vs. Randy Vásquez (3.99 ERA, 5.34 FIP)

Patrick, 26, has been better than advertised through 13 games (12 starts) this season. While his rotation spot very well could be given to Brandon Woodruff upon his return, he’s certainly made his case to remain with the major league squad. Through 63 2⁄3 innings, he has a 2.97 ERA and 3.29 FIP with 57 strikeouts. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in every appearance. His last appearance came in Milwaukee’s 17-7 blowout win over the Phillies, where he went six innings and allowed two runs on five hits with six strikeouts. This is his first career appearance against the Padres.

Vásquez, 26, is in his third MLB season and his second with the Padres after being included in the Michael King-Juan Soto trade in December 2023. He’s made 12 starts this season with a solid 3.99 ERA, though his 5.34 FIP is the worst of his career, mostly due to low strikeout numbers (35 in 58 2⁄3 innings) and a lot of walks (career-high 30 this season). He went 3 1⁄3 innings in his last start, allowing four runs on six hits and three walks with three strikeouts against the Pirates. He went five scoreless innings and struck out three in his lone appearance against the Brewers last June.

Saturday, June 6 @ 6:35 p.m.: Jose Quintana (2.77 ERA, 4.51 FIP) vs. Stephen Kolek (3.47 ERA, 3.90 FIP)

Quintana’s 2.77 ERA far outpaces his 4.51 FIP through seven starts, but part of that can probably be attributed to very low strikeout numbers (27 in 39 innings). Still, he’s kept runs off the board, allowing 14 runs (12 earned) and collecting a 4-1 record to this point. He went five innings in a no-decision against the Phillies in his last start, allowing two runs on four hits and four walks with three strikeouts. He’s made nine career appearances (seven starts) against the Padres, with a perfect 3-0 record, 4.25 ERA, and 31 strikeouts over 42 1⁄3 innings.

Kolek, 28, is in his second MLB season and first as a starter, making 42 appearances out of San Diego’s bullpen last season. He had a 5.21 ERA a year ago, but his 3.57 FIP was a much better mark. This season, he has a 3.47 ERA, 3.90 FIP, and 27 strikeouts over 36 1⁄3 innings spanning six starts. His last start was a strong one, as he went 5 2⁄3 innings scoreless, allowing just three hits and a pair of walks while striking out three. He pitched in relief twice last season, allowing one unearned run over three innings of work with two strikeouts.

Sunday, June 7 @ 12:05 p.m.: Aaron Civale (5.19 ERA, 5.50 FIP) vs. Ryan Bergert (2.00 ERA, 4.63 FIP)

Despite his high ERA mark, Civale has pitched better than those numbers indicate. Since allowing five runs in three innings of work against the Yankees back in April, he’s made three more starts, all of which resulted in two runs or fewer and all of which resulted in wins for the Crew. His last start came against the Reds, when he allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk with five strikeouts over a season-high 5 1⁄3 innings, picking up his first win of the year. He’s made two career starts against the Padres, with a 3.24 ERA and 11 strikeouts in 8 1⁄3 innings.

Bergert, 25, is ranked as San Diego’s No. 21 prospect by MLB Pipeline. He’s made five appearances this season, spanning nine innings with two runs allowed and four strikeouts. He made his first MLB start on Tuesday night against the Giants, going five frames with two earned runs on six hits and two walks with a pair of strikeouts. This marks his first appearance against the Brewers.

How to Watch

Friday, June 5: FanDuel Sports Wisconsin and MLB.TV (out-of-market viewers); listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Saturday, June 6: Nationally televised on FOX; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Sunday, June 7: Nationally televised on Roku; listen via radio on the Brewers Radio Network

Prediction

This is another tough matchup for the Crew, but Milwaukee is extremely lucky to be missing the top part of the Padres’ rotation in Dylan Cease and Nick Pivetta. These squads are fairly even on paper, and I’ll give the red-hot Brewers a 2-1 edge over the Padres to kick off their homestand.