The San Diego Padres (36-27) and Milwaukee Brewers (35-30) wrap up their 3-game series Sunday. First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is set for 1:05 p.m. ET (Roku). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Brewers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

After a 2-0 win in Friday’s series opener, the Padres dropped a tough one Saturday night, losing 4-3 to the Brewers. Starter Stephen Kolek left after 5 2/3 shutout innings (3 H, 4 BB, 2 K) with a 1-run lead, but the bullpen gave up 3 runs. 1B Luis Arraez drove in 2 runs with a ninth-inning double and C Elias Díaz went 2-for-3 with an RBI. San Diego has lost 3 of its last 4 games.

Brewers RP Trevor Megill blew a 2-run lead in the ninth, but 3B Caleb Durbin saved the day with a leadoff walk-off home run as the Brewers cashed as -144 home favorites as the Under (8) hit. Milwaukee has won 10 of its last 12 games.

Padres at Brewers projected starters

RHP Ryan Bergert vs. RHP Freddy Peralta

Bergert (0-0, 3.60 ERA) went 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 3-2 road victory in his first MLB start Tuesday against the San Francisco Giants after 4 relief appearances.

2025 MLB stats: 1-0, 2.00 ERA (9 IP, 2 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 4.0 K/9 in 5 games (1 start)2025 AAA El Paso stats: 0-1, 3.75 ERA (36 IP, 15 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 9 starts25-year-old rookie’s first time facing Brewers

Peralta (5-4, 2.92 ERA) is making his 14th start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 71 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 4-2 road loss against Cincinnati Reds Tuesday2025 home stats: 3-0, 1.55 ERA (29 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 5 startsCareer vs. Padres: 2-1, 3.94 ERA (16 IP, 7 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 12.9 K/9 in 5 games (2 starts); last start in 2023

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Padres at Brewers odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:58 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Padres +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Brewers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-170) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)Padres at Brewers picks and predictionsPrediction

Brewers 5, Padres 2

PASS.

I like the Brewers (-160) to win the series on Sunday, but I’ll take my wager to the run line.

BET BREWERS -1.5 (+140).

After winning 5 of 6 games on the road, the Brewers look to kickstart their 10-game homestand with a series win on Sunday.

Milwaukee has won 8 of its last 10 games overall and owns a strong 19-11 record at American Family Field, thanks in large part to its pitching. The Brewers boast a 3.29 team ERA at home, with Peralta leading the charge. Peralta has been nearly untouchable in Milwaukee and holds a clear edge in this matchup. Padres 3B Manny Machado is just 1-for-10 against him, and C Elias Díaz is hitting only .125.

Given their current form, home-field advantage, and pitching edge, the Brewers are in a great spot to win the series on Sunday.

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

The first 2 games of the series have gone Under, and the trend favors another low-scoring finish. The Under has hit in 7 of the last 10 games for both the Brewers and Padres. Peralta is 8-3-2 to the Under this season, and Bergert’s lone start also stayed Under. Back the Under again.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.