The Washington Nationals (30-35) visit the New York Mets (42-24) on Tuesday. The opener of a 3-game set at Citi Field in Queens is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Nationals vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 2-2
Over the weekend, Washington lost 2 of 3 games to the Texas Rangers, and the Nationals are just 2-5 over their last 7 games. Over that stretch, the Nats have scored just 11 total runs while posting an anemic .490 OPS.
The Mets are back at home after a 5-2 road trip that included a 3-game sweep at the Colorado Rockies. Both losses on the trip were in 1-run games, and New York is 8-2 across its last 10 games and is 12-3 since May 24.
Nationals at Mets projected starters
LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. RHP Griffin Canning
Gore (3-5, 2.87 ERA) is making his 14th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 12.9 K/9 through 75 1/3 innings.
Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-0 win vs. Chicago Cubs WednesdayCareer vs. Mets: 1-3, 4.55 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 29 H, 16 BB, 29 K in 6 startsOwns an 0.47 ERA over his last 3 starts
Canning (6-2, 2.90 ERA) is making his 12th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 59 IP.
Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 6-1 win at LA Dodgers WednesdayCareer vs. Nationals: 1-0, 3.18 ERA (17 IP, 6 ER), 17 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 3 starts
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Nationals at Mets odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:06 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML): Nationals +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Mets -160 (bet $160 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-160) | Mets -1.5 (+135)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)Nationals at Mets picks and predictionsPrediction
Mets 4, Nationals 3
No interest: PASS.
New York is clearly playing better ball of late, and the Mets have won 8 of the last 10 series meetings. But pitching — and some actual vs. expected results with the starters and both bullpens — tilt this series opener toward the visitors.
Gore’s line is for real. He has thus far this season missed bats at a would-be career-best 16.4% (swinging-strikes) clip, and he has registered his fine 2.87 ERA in and around the traffic of a .341 batting average on balls in play. The Washington southpaw is facing a Mets club that has cranked out an .868 OPS over its last 9 games, but left-handers do bring out the lesser side of the Mets’ platoon numbers and current New York bats own an aggregate .694 OPS against Gore.
Canning has perhaps been more fortunate in logging his season line. He has benefited from some generous rates around the margins and is just 2 and 3 starts removed from shaky 4-walk outings in his last 2 starts in May.
New York clearly has the better bullpen numbers. But expected-ERA figures reveal a Nats pen with worse-than-deserved stats. The opposite holds true for a Mets relief corps which has leveraged a .283 BABIP and a low percentage of fly balls carrying over outfield fences.
With a low total and in a game involving a Mets club that plays more 1-run games than average, BACK THE NATIONALS +1.5 (-160). FanDuel Sportsbook
The Under is 4-1 across Gore’s last 5 starts.
With rested bullpens and some slightly overcooked season offensive numbers in play, the UNDER 7.5 (-110) is worth a look.
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