This post by MLB.com’s Mike Petriello has bothered me the past few days:
I was trying to figure out Wilmer Flores’s season because there’s some All-Star talk and yet nothing under the hood seems better — most seems worse?
and then I saw:
RISP OPS: 1.080
empty OPS: .653
so that explains the RBIs and big moments. But also just cannot last long.
— Mike Petriello (@mikepetriello.bsky.social) 2025-06-08T02:09:47.756Z
It’s important to remember that Mike Petriello is a Dodgers fan first and foremost. The post coincided with the Giants moving to within one game of the Dodgers in the NL West when the Dodgers were supposed to be 10 games up on the division by now. So, this felt like a drive by shooting at a rival while at the same time being emblematic of the very worst that baseball analytics writing offers to the general public: mainly, that it’s no fun.
The average person probably encounters analytics-driven baseball writing in this way:
FAN: Wow, I LOVE this player! That game was fun!
ANALYTICS WRITER: Actually, that guy you love is bad and your definition of fun is wrong!
I’m as guilty of doing this as anyone who writes about baseball online, of course, so I’m well aware that I’m in Hypocrite Mode, but the above post feels more petty than substantial. Might a Dodger fan actually care about the rivalry?
Now, Wilmer Flores is hardly the frontrunner to represent the San Francisco Giants at Truist Park in Atlanta, but three days after All-Star voting opens is an interesting moment to undermine a campaign before one really gets going. And the argument is that he’s not worthy of a spot because a split stat is not sustainable. It’s a weird/funny statement to make: Shut it down, folks! This thing that grabbed your attention is actually a mirage! That number reflects an unrepeatable result!
But, for the moment, let’s compare Wilmer Flores to other players who have been great with runners in scoring position this season:
14 out of the 15 dudes here are mashers. Wilmer Flores is the exception by far. Lots of fans want to believe that a savvy veteran can stay ahead of the performance abyss if they work hard enough, and maybe that’s true. But it’s a safe bet to simply say, “Old guy with bad batted ball data. Therefore, everything you’re seeing is unsustainable and anything that’s not sustainable is dumb luck.” Wilmer Flores is a party favor. His entire career irrelevant to the analysis. At least, that’s usually what’s going on when something like this gets posted for mass consumption. And, in this case, it ignores the pageantry of the game itself.
When I got started on this post, I thought Flores would be listed on the All-Star ballot under designated hitter, in which case Petriello’s comment would make even less sense because — obviously — nobody is going to threaten Shohei Ohtani for NL DH. But then I looked at the thing and there’s Wilmer listed at first base??? What???
Okay, well, now I can see a bit of an issue here. There’s no chance Mets fans and most baseball fans would leave Pete Alonso off their ballot, but then there’s LA’s Freddie Freeman. Surely, he’d make it onto the roster as a reserve because he’s doing well, has a track record of being an All-Star, and the game itself will be played in Atlanta in front of his old fans.
Here’s what MLB.com says about the reserve roster rules:
All of the pitchers and position player reserves are chosen through a combination of Player Ballot selections and choices made by the Commissioner’s Office.
There are 32 roster spots for each league (20 position players and 12 pitchers). The player ballots account for 17 players in both the AL and NL — eight pitchers (five starters and three relievers), as well as one backup for each position, including DH. The Commissioner’s Office is responsible for selecting six additional players in each league (four pitchers and two position players). At this stage, MLB must ensure that every club is represented by at least one All-Star selection.
We can assume that no Giants position player will receive enough votes to make it on the roster, which means Wilmer Flores currently has a 0% chance of being an All-Star for the first time in his career. If the league office intervenes to make sure a Giant needs to be on the team and Logan Webb is unavailable for some reason, then I presume their choice on the position player side would be Matt Chapman, which keeps Flores’s odds at 0%.
But! If Alex Pavlovic’s comments in the May 19th edition of the Giants Talk podcast are accurate, then players across the league have a lot of love for Wilmer. Enough to surpass Freeman (.351 average, 1.009 OPS) or Bryce Harper (.814 OPS but now dealing with a wrist injury) or Atlanta’s Matt Olson (.817 OPS) or fellow DH Kyle Schwarber (20 HR, .927 OPS)? VERY unlikely; however, in this one scenario, I’d say he has a non-zero chance to make the All-Star team as a reserve or injury replacement… so long as the RBIs keep coming.
Admittedly, RBI total is a pretty flimsy All-Star case, but I’m stupid enough to make it despite Petriello the expert’s research and conclusion — I’m a regular RFK Jr. over here! Sure, this will only be read by Giants fans, but that might be good for the rivalry? Here goes…
For a while there, Wilmer Flores ran neck and neck with Aaron Judge for the league lead in RBI, but both have been overtaken by Pete Alonso (61) and Rafael Devers (57). They’re still in the top 10 league-wide and Flores is 4th in the National League.
What if Wilmer Flores is still in the top 10 for RBI on say, July 1st? Would he still have a case?
Here are all the National League players who were in the top 10 for RBI as of July 1st who did not make the NL roster that season.
2024: Willy Adames, Christian Walker, Jake Cronenworth
2023: Francisco Lindor, Christian Walker
2022: Francisco Lindor, Rowdy Tellez
2021: Adam Duvall, Jesus Aguilar
2019: Eduardo Escobar, Marcell Ozuna, Eric Hosmer, Bryce Harper
2018: Anthony Rizzo, Jose A. Martinez
2017: Mark Reynolds (though he was one of the finalists for the final roster spot vote, which ultimately went to Justin Turner), Travis Shaw, Adam Duvall
2016: Jake Lamb (though he was one fo the final roster spot vote finalists — lost to Brandon Belt), Matt Kemp
2015: Starling Marte
That’s an interesting mix of players to be sure with an overriding theme that popular players can create logjams at certain positions (tough breaks for Lindor and Walker). Basically, 2-3 players a year are ignored despite high RBI totals. Wilmer Flores is the exact type of player (corner guy/DH) who gets ignored for reserve roles because that’s a spot where it’s very easy to find great players who missed the cut via fan vote.
He’s been a great story for the Giants this season. The “never made an All-Star team” angle could spark some momentum, but he’ll need to hit better than the .641 OPS he’s sporting here in June (28 PA). If he can get hot, then we nutty Giants fans can feel more justified in circulating this factoid in hopes that players around the league see it: since 2015, just 13 right-handed hitters have had 4,000+ plate appearances in the National League.
Wilmer Flores is the only player yet to be named an All-Star. That alone doesn’t make him worthy, but maybe those RBIs and his reputation might? We’ll have our answer in about a month and the discussion leading up to that announcement should be part of the fun of the season — even if we all know it’s a longshot.