The story below is a collaboration between writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports, who are joining forces this season to cover topics around baseball.<\/p>\n
The season\u2019s stretch run tends to have a surprise or two up its sleeve.<\/p>\n
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On this date in 2023, the D-backs\u2019 odds of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs projections, were at 17.4%. They wound up in the World Series. On the same date in 2021, the sub-.500 Cardinals were at a measly 1.4% before they made a run to a wild-card spot. In other words, as long as there\u2019s a chance, there\u2019s a chance.<\/p>\n
Which team might pull off that unexpected surge into October in 2024? As of Friday, FanGraphs postseason odds<\/a> had 15 contenders with relatively robust odds \u2014 nearly 40% or better. Eight other clubs were below 1% (six of them actually at 0%). That leaves seven long-shot contenders, each of whom fell between 3% and 20%. (These odds factor in not only the standings but also teams\u2019 true talent level and remaining strength of schedule.)<\/p>\n To help determine which club could overcome those numbers to claim a playoff spot, we asked seven writers, from Yahoo Sports and MLB.com, to each make the case for one of them.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n Teams are listed below in order of their postseason odds entering Friday’s games.<\/p>\n 1. San Francisco GiantsPostseason odds as of Friday: 15.1%How they could do it: Peak at the right time<\/p>\n Although they haven\u2019t been above .500 since late May, when their winning percentage peaked at 29-27, the Giants have hung around the bottom portion of the muddled NL wild-card mess<\/a> and seem to be playing their best baseball just in time to make a push down the stretch. They weren\u2019t exactly big buyers at the trade deadline \u2014 in fact, they dealt away one of their best hitters in Jorge Soler \u2014 but their decision to hold onto Blake Snell despite whispers about his potential availability immediately paid off, with Snell throwing a no-hitter in his first start post-deadline<\/a>. It took a while, but Snell is finally starting to look like what San Francisco paid for as the grand finale of its highly active winter of spending in free agency.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n And while Soler is gone and Jung-Hoo Lee is out for the year due to a shoulder injury, Matt Chapman is another of San Francisco\u2019s big offseason additions who has looked spectacular lately, ranking as one of baseball\u2019s best hitters<\/a> since the All-Star break. Add the return of veteran lefty Robbie Ray to the rotation and the stunning power breakout of shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald, and suddenly this roster is looking far more formidable than it did at any point over the season\u2019s first few months.<\/p>\n San Francisco\u2019s schedule also offers the opportunity to make tangible progress in the standings if the team can continue to play well at the right time; September features six more games against Arizona, six more against San Diego and three at home against St. Louis to wrap up the regular season. It won\u2019t be easy, but after a couple of seasons of maddening mediocrity following the miraculous, 107-win campaign in 2021, this year\u2019s squad looks to have enough high-end talent to rise above the messy middle and claim a place in the NL wild-card picture.<\/p>\n \u2014 Jordan Shusterman (Yahoo Sports)<\/p>\n 2. St. Louis CardinalsPostseason odds as of Friday: 14.5%How they could do it: Key veterans turning back the clock<\/p>\n If the Cardinals are going to make the postseason, it\u2019s going to be about one thing: offense. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have not had their typical All-Star-caliber seasons, yet St. Louis has stayed in contention thanks to its starting pitching. If the Cardinals have any hope of making a late push to October, they need those two to return to true form and help the likes of Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn and trade-deadline acquisition Tommy Pham.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n The Cardinals also need to find a way to add a bit more slug to their game, as they\u2019re currently 21st in MLB in homers. Without the help of the long ball, St. Louis is going to have to rely on other ways to push runs across the plate if they hope to have a chance.<\/p>\n \u2014 Russell Dorsey (Yahoo Sports)<\/p>\n 3. Tampa Bay RaysPostseason odds as of Friday: 8.5%How they could do it: Patch holes with capable reinforcements<\/p>\n The Rays sold at the trade deadline more than any other team on this list, shipping out several key players over the course of July. But the essence of Rays baseball is that there is always more talent waiting in the wings, ready to fill those roster spots. Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs are now in the rotation for the first time all year after returning from injuries. Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson, both buy-low deadline acquisitions, are in the lineup.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n So is Curtis Mead, a top-100 prospect before this season. Junior Caminero, MLB\u2019s No. 3 prospect<\/a> at present, has been raking at Triple-A and figures to be up soon. All of those players have a lot to prove, of course, and the Rays (outscored by 45 runs this season) have five games to make up in the wild-card standings<\/a>. That\u2019s going to be a tall task given their recent trades, but if there is a team here that has made a habit of defying expectations, this is it.<\/p>\n \u2014 Andrew Simon (MLB.com)<\/p>\n 4. Chicago CubsPostseason odds as of Friday: 6.8%How they could do it: Tap into some power<\/p>\n Because they ultimately decided not to sell, the Cubs have what several more legitimate contenders still don\u2019t: a sound rotation. Their big four \u2014 Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Javier Assad \u2014 have a combined 3.22 ERA. The bullpen has posted an MLB-best 2.61 ERA since June 1. Consider that, at least for now, squared away.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n But the Cubs have a .382 slugging percentage since the All-Star break, which probably won\u2019t be enough to support the pitching staff. \u201cJust hit more homers\u201d isn\u2019t actionable advice, but if the Cubs can get more, particularly out of Dansby Swanson (.230\/.300\/.357) and new addition Isaac Paredes (.237\/.345\/.424), neither of whom has recaptured his 2023 form, they\u2019d be in pretty good shape.<\/p>\n \u2014 Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru (MLB.com)<\/p>\n 5. Pittsburgh PiratesPostseason odds as of Friday: 3.9%How they could do it: Lean on their rotation<\/p>\n Is getting swept at home by the Padres a good look for an NL wild-card hopeful? Obviously not. Neither is the 4.5-game gap between Pittsburgh and a playoff spot. But the Buccos are worth keeping tabs on just because their starting pitching is so good. Since phenom Paul Skenes debuted on May 11, the Pirates have the second-lowest rotation ERA in baseball. Fellow rookie hurler Jared Jones, who has been sidelined by a lat strain since early July, is set to make a rehab start Thursday. Stalwart Mitch Keller has the sixth-lowest ERA in the National League.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n And while Pittsburgh\u2019s offense can be a frustrating slog at times, there have been signs of life. Oneil Cruz has an .824 OPS since May 1. Bryan Reynolds was an All-Star for a reason. Rowdy Tellez turned his season around after a horrendous first two months. Catcher Joey Bart has been a sensational post-hype prospect reclamation project. If this group can score enough runs, the Pirates might have a chance.<\/p>\n \u2014 Jake Mintz (Yahoo Sports)<\/p>\n 6. Texas RangersPostseason odds as of Friday: 3.8%How they could do it: Get some key hitters going<\/p>\n The Rangers return largely the same lineup from their 2023 World Series-winning club, a team that led the American League in average and OPS and tied for the AL lead in home runs. But Adolis Garc\u00eda (.655 OPS) and Marcus Semien (.727 OPS) have taken steps back at the plate this season, while Josh Jung and Evan Carter have been limited by injury.<\/p>\n Advertisement<\/p>\n With Tyler Mahle back and Jacob deGrom set to return soon, the Rangers should have the arms to make a run \u2014 but they\u2019ll need their bats to be excellent down the stretch to win the AL West or earn a wild-card berth.<\/p>\n \u2014 Theo DeRosa (MLB.com)<\/p>\n 7. Cincinnati RedsPostseason odds as of Friday: 3.7%How they could do it: Finally win some close games<\/p>\n