{"id":171398,"date":"2025-07-12T19:49:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-12T19:49:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/171398\/"},"modified":"2025-07-12T19:49:11","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T19:49:11","slug":"philadelphia-phillies-vs-san-diego-padres-prediction-pick-for-saturday-7-12-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/171398\/","title":{"rendered":"Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres prediction, pick for Saturday 7\/12\/25"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-kb-block=\"kb-adv-heading151976_d65c2c-6f\">Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday\u2019s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres.<\/p>\n<p>A showdown between National League heavyweights is on tap for Saturday in SoCal. The visiting <a data-autolink-id=\"2737\" target=\"_self\" href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/teams\/baseball\/mlb\/philadelphia-phillies--odds\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Phillies<\/a> enter tonight atop the NL East at 54-40. They\u2019ll hope to keep the good times rolling against a <a data-autolink-id=\"2747\" target=\"_self\" href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/teams\/baseball\/mlb\/san-diego-padres--odds\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Padres<\/a> squad battling it out in the loaded NL West. Which of these two contenders will come out on top in this potential playoff preview? Below, I\u2019ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Saturday\u2019s matchup between the Phillies and the Padres.<\/p>\n<p>The Phillies are <a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/event\/phi-phillies-%40-sd-padres\/32515598\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">favorites (-168)<\/a> over the Padres, with the <a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/event\/phi-phillies-%40-sd-padres\/32515598\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">over\/under 7.5 set at runs<\/a>. Let\u2019s break down which side has the edge on <a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">DraftKings Sportsbook<\/a> entering tonight\u2019s contest.<\/p>\n<p>Phillies vs. Padres prediction, preview<\/p>\n<p>In a league filled with standout arms, Zack Wheeler might be the most consistent. Since 2021, the three-time All-Star has posted an ERA of 2.85 while tossing more innings than every pitcher other than Logan Webb. That level of production and durability is rare nowadays, placing the 35-year-old in an elite group of aces. This season, the veteran has notched a 2.17 ERA while leading the league in WHIP (0.85) and strikeouts (148). That\u2019s bad news for a Padres squad that\u2019s scored 141 runs since June 1st, the fifth-lowest mark in baseball. <\/p>\n<p>Granted, it\u2019s fair to say that San Diego has underperformed its collective talent. After all, this group of hitters includes eight former (or current) All-Stars. However, several big names have underperformed, including Jackson Merrill (103 wRC+), Xander Bogaerts (102 wRC+) and Luis Arraez (102 wRC+). Unsurprisingly, the Padres own baseball\u2019s seventh-lowest OPS against right-handed pitching this season (.696). When Wheeler faced the Friars in June, he tossed eight scoreless innings while striking out ten batters.<\/p>\n<p>The key to San Diego\u2019s success tonight will likely come down to starter Yu Darvish. \u00a0An elbow injury kept the veteran out of action for most of the first half. Fortunately, he was able to make his return on Monday against the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/teams\/baseball\/mlb\/arizona-diamondbacks--odds?dkinternal_referrer_article_id=267898&amp;dkinternal_referrer_source=DKNetwork\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Diamondbacks<\/a>\u00a0(3.2 IP, 2 ER). While it wasn\u2019t a spectacular debut, the righty should be more comfortable on the mound tonight. It helps that Darvish has logged a 2.13 ERA over eight career appearances vs. the Phillies. On the road, Philadelphia is averaging the 12th-fewest runs per game in baseball (4.10). In addition, the Fightins have scored three runs or less in four of their previous five outings.<\/p>\n<p>Phillies vs. Padres pick, best bet<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/sportsbook.draftkings.com\/event\/phi-phillies-%40-sd-padres\/32515598\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Best Bet: Phillies vs. Padres total runs UNDER 7.5 (-119)<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The Phillies are the more talented team with an edge on the mound. However, at -168 on the money line, there\u2019s more value to be had elsewhere. The bet that makes the most sense is the under. Philadelphia has scored four runs or less in over 55% of their contests this season. San Diego\u2019s hitting struggles will likely continue against Wheeler. Keeping all of that in mind, it\u2019s difficult to envision much scoring at Petco Park tonight.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Saturday\u2019s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":171399,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2397],"tags":[5,4,144,25,4216,40,18563],"class_list":{"0":"post-171398","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-philadelphia-phillies","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-philadelphia","11":"tag-philadelphia-phillies","12":"tag-philadelphiaphillies","13":"tag-phillies","14":"tag-splits"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/114842000815697280","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=171398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/171398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/171399"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=171398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=171398"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=171398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}