Last week I detailed how similar the Cardinals are to some of the top teams in MLB when going by fWAR and other factors not related to their win\/loss totals. Since then the Cardinals have sprung out of their early season form as if from a cacoon that was April and the early season. If a bird can emerge from that sort of wrapping, that is miraculous.<\/p>\n
It has been a tale of different months so far: April meant 17 losses, sub-.500 baseball. The problem wasn\u2019t the positional players, who posted a 108 wRC+ while playing elite defense. The problem wasn\u2019t so much the pitching in general. It was the bullpen posting a 4.40 ERA and just a lot of bad timing and also injuries to Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera, which were felt by the whole team. Herrera had been on an absolute tear to start the year, and Winn was the mainstay at shortstop providing some of the best defense in the majors. <\/p>\n
Looking back, it felt like we had one of the worst bullpens ever. But it was more of a middling to just below average bullpen, because several players made it still kind of good: Leahy, Maton, Helsley. The bullpen was still within the top 20 teams. And yet somehow the team only won 13 games spread over late March to the end of April.<\/p>\n
Now May has been a whole other story: excellent bullpen at 2.72 ERA. Fifth place in bullpen fWAR (with only the Reds ahead of the Cardinals in the National League this month for bullpens). We are behind only the Twins, Royals, Reds, and Phillies in overall pitching fWAR for May (tied with the Giants). Positional fWAR in May has been top 10 for the Cardinals, and they retain the top defense so far this month as well.<\/p>\n
So the Cardinals have shown a slightly improved offense in May, and much, much better pitching all while retaining that top tier defense. The Cardinals are feeling much more like themselves, overperforming their roster by a little bit largely because of inducing groundballs and playing amazing defense, but also in having a lot of depth. At least by what I am looking at statistically and in watching each game, it really feels like April\u2019s losses were more of the fluke than May\u2019s winning ways.<\/p>\n
As it stands now on Fangraphs projected standings, the Cardinals are supposed to finish 4 games behind the Cubs, and just over .500. This is where I would have pegged them to start the season, about the same as last year, barely a winning team. But now I want more. This team can up the attack on offense a bit, and give that pitching meets run preventing defense a really good chance at winning more often. <\/p>\n
After a 9 game winning streak, the Cardinals find themselves at 4 games over .500 and have gained some confidence and maybe a little swagger. They are ahead of the Phillies and Reds in run differential. They\u2019re not as bad of a road team when it comes to hitting. The pitching is a little better on the road now too. Maybe that narrative will end soon, but the Cardinals are still 5 games under .500 away from home. Hopefully that will change now.<\/p>\n
One more thing I would like to talk about this week is how Masyn Winn sprays the ball around effectively when he collects hits. https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/savant-player\/masyn-winn-691026?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb<\/a><\/p>\n While he does like to pull the ball, he is also going the opposite way rather effectively and fairly often. His current .340 OBP is exciting and hopefully hints at a more seasoned MLB hitter. He appears to be improving some at the plate over last season and while he is definitely a defense first player, his hitting has actually been well above average!<\/p>\n Winn\u2019s combination of youthful athleticism, very valuable defense, above average footspeed, and .170 ISO in 2025 is rather exciting and entertaining. Masyn has now played in well over 200 MLB games! Winn has a pretty major split in that he is hitting lefties much much worse than righties: .442 OPS vs lefties, .892 OPS vs righties. Winn hits a lot better on the road, going against the away split 2025 Cardinals narrative. He hits the best with 1 out in the inning, OPSing .988! He has 11 of his 26 hits in the 3rd and 9th inning. He absolutely loves hitting in the 9th inning so far. So we may see some walkoffs by Winn this season.<\/p>\n Well that was fun, one of my other favorite up and coming players to watch has been Victor Scott II. He had a cup of bitter coffee last season but has turned everything around for this season so far. https:\/\/baseballsavant.mlb.com\/savant-player\/victor-scott-ii-687363?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb&season=2025<\/a><\/p>\n 115 wRC+ Ok these splits will be worth monitoring for other players, and valuable when coming back to Winn and Scott II. So far, the season is still young and these split stats are relatively meaningless. It gives you an idea of the hitting personalities we have seen so far in the results on the field and might give a sketch of what\u2019s to come from hitters. It\u2019s also possible things will go in a completely different direction and we will be able to pull together different conclusions later in the year.<\/p>\n Album Hall of Fame<\/p>\n Medeski, Martin, and Wood – \u2018The Dropper\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n
\n1.2 fWAR
\namazing defense and 11 stolen bases = FAST
\nlikes to hit righties .827 OPS
\nhis best statistical splits show that he likes batting 9th (second leadoff man!)
\nhe has been \u201cclutch\u201d so far in that his OPS is higher with more than one runner on base and he hits well with players in scoring position, and he hits well in late and close situations
\nso far when he leads off an inning, he doesn\u2019t hit well (I guess because no one is on base)
\nVSII doesn\u2019t care if he\u2019s hitting at home or away
\nsimilar to Winn, Victor is hitting best with 1 out<\/p>\n