{"id":3454,"date":"2025-05-05T22:52:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T22:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/3454\/"},"modified":"2025-05-05T22:52:08","modified_gmt":"2025-05-05T22:52:08","slug":"mets-vs-diamondbacks-odds-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/3454\/","title":{"rendered":"Mets vs. Diamondbacks odds, predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\tGambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n

The New York Mets have hit their first real speed bump<\/a> of the 2025 MLB<\/a> season.<\/p>\n

Losers of four of the last five, the Mets begin a three-game set with the Diamondbacks on Monday as part of a brutally hard schedule this month that includes series with the Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers.<\/p>\n

Griffin Canning will toe the rubber for the Mets on Monday night, looking to continue his terrific start to the campaign.<\/p>\n

The Diamondbacks will counter with Ryne Nelson, who is taking the spot of the injured Corbin Burnes.<\/p>\n

The Snakes are a nominal -116 favorite on Monday night.<\/p>\n

Use BetMGM bonus code POSTBET<\/a> to get your first bet back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn\u2019t win, up to $1,500.<\/p>\n

Mets vs. Diamondbacks betting preview<\/p>\n

It may be surprising that the bookmakers view this game as a toss-up given Canning\u2019s start and the fact that the Mets are off to a better start than the D\u2019backs, but the underlying data backs up the tight odds.<\/p>\n

The Mets and Diamondbacks boast remarkably similar offensive numbers, and while Canning is the A-side of this pitching matchup, his predictive stats suggest he should come back down to earth a bit.<\/p>\n

Canning has pitched to a 2.61 ERA this season, but his xERA sits at 3.93, and his xFIP currently clocks in at 3.53. Those numbers are perfectly adequate, but they do tell us that Canning is getting the rub of the luck through his first six starts with the Mets.<\/p>\n

Nelson has primarily been used as a reliever, with 17 innings across seven outings and just one start. His 5.82 ERA is a little misleading, as his xFIP is all the way down at 2.52. He is unlikely to go deep in this contest.<\/p>\n

\"EugenioEugenio Suarez of the Arizona Diamondbacks in action against the Phillies. Getty Images<\/p>\n

Mets vs. Diamondbacks pick<\/p>\n

Not only are the Mets scuffling, but this is a tricky schedule spot after getting swept in a double-header in St. Louis on Sunday.<\/p>\n

Factoring in the schedule and the fact that Canning is likely a little overvalued in this pitching matchup \u2013 especially against a strong offense \u2013 there is value on the Snakes as a slight favorite on Monday night.<\/p>\n

The Play: Diamondbacks -120 or better (BetMGM<\/a>)<\/p>\n

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