We all know the top-level summary for the 2025 Texas Rangers season: the pitching was great, and the offense let the team down. If the offense had just been average, the Rangers would have won the American League West.<\/p>\n
The numbers, after all, speak for themselves. The Rangers were 26th in the majors in batting average. They were 26th in the majors in OBP. They were 26th in the majors in slugging. In OPS, the Rangers were \u2014 you guessed it \u2014 26th.<\/p>\n
In runs scored, the Rangers were 22nd in the majors with 684 runs, though they were right in the middle of a clutch of eight teams that scored anywhere from 673 to 689 runs, spanning 18th to 25th in the majors. The Rangers\u2019 ordinal improvement in runs scored compared to OPS would appear to be due to a combination of the team being an above-average baserunning team (8th in the majors, per Fangraphs) and performing better with runners in scoring position than overall.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, the Rangers allowed the fewest runs in baseball \u2014 just 605. That\u2019s the fewest runs allowed by a team since 2022. Its the fewest runs allowed by the Rangers in a non-shortened season since the team moved to Arlington, edging out the 1983 Rangers, who allowed 609 runs (though in 163 games). Amazingly, the Rangers allowed almost 100 fewer runs in 162 games in 2025 than the 1994 Rangers allowed in 114 games.<\/p>\n
The pitching and defense \u2014 and the defense does get a lot of credit, let\u2019s be clear, finishing 5th in the majors in FRV and 1st in DRS \u2014 came through. The offense \u2014 expected to be the strength of the team \u2014 failed them.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the narrative, the post-mortem of a failed 2025 season that has been trumpeted from all quarters.<\/p>\n
The thing is, though\u2026I don\u2019t think that\u2019s quite accurate.<\/p>\n
I do agree that the run prevention side of things for the Rangers was better than the run scoring side in 2025. I agree that the Rangers\u2019 offense \u2014 expected to be an above-average offense in 2025, a top-third caliber offense \u2014 did not meet expectations.<\/p>\n
But, in context, the Rangers offense wasn\u2019t bad \u2014 it was more or less league-average.<\/p>\n
If we look at Baseball-Reference, they have the Rangers\u2019 OPS+ \u2014 the team OPS, adjusted for park effects \u2014 at 100, which is exactly average. B-R has the team\u2019s Rbat+, which factors in all offensive contributions, is at 103, a shade above league average. Texas was 14th in the majors in OPS+ and 13th in Rbat+.<\/p>\n
How do we square that circle, reconcile the team scoring the fewest runs in the league with B-R\u2019s measurements have them as league average?<\/p>\n
Through park effects, of course. And specifically, how the Shed played as the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball in 2025.<\/p>\n
Don\u2019t believe me? Think the Shed was only perceived as being pitcher-friendly because the Rangers\u2019 pitching was so awesome and the offense so bad? Let\u2019s take a look at the home\/road slash line splits for the Rangers in 2025:<\/p>\n
2025 Texas Rangers hitters:<\/p>\n
Home: .225\/.297\/.363, 30th in MLB in OPS<\/p>\n
Away: .242\/.307\/.399, 17th in MLB in OPS<\/p>\n
2025 Texas Rangers pitchers:<\/p>\n
Home: .225\/.297\/.363, 1st in MLB in OPS allowed<\/p>\n
Away: .242\/.307\/.399, 10th in MLB in OPS allowed<\/p>\n
That is dramatic, to say the least.<\/p>\n
That is reflected in Statcast\u2019s one year park factor analysis for 2025<\/a>. The Shed is, in ranking parks in regards to how hitter-friendly they were in 2025, tied for last with T-Mobile Park in Seattle. There were 17% fewer runs scored at the Shed in 2025 than average. And again, I want to emphasize, this is relative to performance by both the Rangers and their opponents in games away from the Shed \u2014 it isn\u2019t something that can be explained away by a great Rangers pitching staff and bad Rangers offense.<\/p>\n And this discrepancy is almost entirely based on the ball not carrying this year in Arlington.<\/p>\n In 2025, the xwOBA on contact \u2014 balls put into play, not Ks or walks or HBPs or the like \u2014 was 99% of league average. Hitters were making basically the same quality of contact \u2014 exit velocities and launch angles \u2014 as they were most other parks.<\/p>\n The actual wOBA on contact, though, was 90% of league average \u2014 a huge discrepancy, the lowest in MLB. Seattle was 29th, at 93%. Only Colorado, at 115% wOBA on contact, had a bigger percentage spread between xwOBA and actual wOBA on contact.<\/p>\n To put this into context, the last time a park had, in a full season, a wOBA on contact percentage as low as 90% was 2021, with Busch Stadium. In 2018, the Marlins\u2019 home park was at 89%. In 2016, the Oakland Colosseum was 90%.<\/p>\n So in the last decade, only once has there been a team whose home park depressed, in that give year, offense on balls in play more than the Shed did in 2025. Only two other times did it even match what happened in Arlington in 2025.<\/p>\n Not surprisingly, actual batting average on balls where contact was made was also dramatically lower in Arlington this year \u2014 91% of what it was elsewhere. If the ball isn\u2019t carrying, more balls are going to be caught.<\/p>\n Given this, it is no surprise that extra base hits were hard to come by in the Shed in 2025. Doubles were only down slightly, at 98%. Triples, however, were at 53% compared to everywhere else, and homers were at just 80%. Only Busch Stadium (78%) and PNC Park (66%) were lower in regards to home runs.<\/p>\n The Shed played pitcher-friendly in 2024 as well \u2014 however, the park factor was 95. That was 28th in MLB, though more in line with the normal range of pitcher-friendly parks you\u2019d see.<\/p>\n What makes this so bizarre, however, is that in 2023, the park was one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Statcast has the park factor for 2023 at 106<\/a> \u2014 tied with Kansas City for third most hitter friendly, behind Coors (natch) and Fenway. The wOBA on contact was 107, 5 percentage points higher than the xwOBA on contact of 102 that year. And it was the most homer-friendly park in baseball, with players homering 33% more often at the Shed than elsewhere. The park was also particularly hitter-friendly in 2022, was mildly pitcher friendly in 2021, and played neutral in 2020.<\/p>\n This also helps explain why B-R has the Rangers\u2019 offense at around league average, with park factors accounted for, while Fangraphs has the team wRC+ at 92, tied with the Reds and Angels for 24th in the majors.<\/p>\n Here\u2019s B-R\u2019s explanation of how they use park factors<\/a>:<\/p>\n WE largely follow the method spelled out below. Historically, B-R has been using single-year park factors for recent years and 3-year park factors historically. We have changed that to now use 3-year factors by default for all years. Of course, the current season is only really a 2-year factor. The current year and last year. This can lead to some big changes in the numbers, from what had been on the site.<\/p>\n So B-R\u2019s park factor for the 2025 Rangers is based on how the park played in 2024 and 2025, two pitcher-friendly seasons (with 2025 being extremely pitcher-friendly). That is going to result in higher OPS+ figures for batters and lower ERA+ figures for pitchers because it is treating the Shed as extremely pitcher-friendly.<\/p>\n