{"id":39387,"date":"2025-05-19T18:42:12","date_gmt":"2025-05-19T18:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/39387\/"},"modified":"2025-05-19T18:42:12","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T18:42:12","slug":"series-preview-seattle-mariners-at-chicago-white-sox","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/39387\/","title":{"rendered":"Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox"},"content":{"rendered":"<p id=\"2NXNeK\">The Mariners bounced back from a 1-5 homestand with a sweep in San Diego, outscoring the Padres 15-3 in three games. The rotation was good, the bullpen was good, and the lineup was good. The Mariners now hold the top spot in the AL West heading into one of the \u201cfriendlier\u201d stretches of the season \u2014 three of their next six series are against the AL\u2019s cellar dwellers. It comes at a good time, too. The Mariners lineup has cooled to average in May after having one of the org\u2019s best months ever in April. But they\u2019ve shown massive home-road splits this month, with a .244 wOBA and 31.1% strikeout rate at home, and a .332 wOBA and 19.3% strikeout rate on the road. The rotation, missing its top three arms, has struggled to pitch deep into games, exposing a shallow bullpen. The next three weeks will take the Mariners to the summer months with a (hopefully) more complete roster. <\/p>\n<p>    At a Glance<\/p>\n<p>          Mariners<\/p>\n<p>          White Sox<\/p>\n<p>          Mariners<\/p>\n<p>          White Sox<\/p>\n<p>            Game 1<\/p>\n<p>            Monday, May 19 | 4:40 pm<\/p>\n<p>            RHP Luis Castillo<\/p>\n<p>            RHP Davis Martin<\/p>\n<p>            59%<\/p>\n<p>            41%<\/p>\n<p>            Game 2<\/p>\n<p>            Tuesday, May 20 | 4:40 pm<\/p>\n<p>            LHP Jhonathan D\u00edaz<\/p>\n<p>            RHP Bryse Wilson<\/p>\n<p>            61%<\/p>\n<p>            39%<\/p>\n<p>            Game 3<\/p>\n<p>            Wednesday, May 21 | 11:10 am<\/p>\n<p>            RHP Logan Evans<\/p>\n<p>            RHP Shane Smith<\/p>\n<p>            52%<\/p>\n<p>            48%<\/p>\n<p>        *Game odds courtesy of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fangraphs.com\/teams\/mariners\/schedule\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FanGraphs<\/a><\/p>\n<p>    Team Overview<\/p>\n<p>          Overview<\/p>\n<p>          White Sox<\/p>\n<p>          Mariners<\/p>\n<p>          Edge<\/p>\n<p>          Overview<\/p>\n<p>          White Sox<\/p>\n<p>          Mariners<\/p>\n<p>          Edge<\/p>\n<p>            Batting (wRC+)<\/p>\n<p>            77 (15th in AL)<\/p>\n<p>            115 (3rd in AL)<\/p>\n<p>            Mariners<\/p>\n<p>            Fielding (OAA)<\/p>\n<p>            -6 (12th)<\/p>\n<p>            -7 (14th)<\/p>\n<p>            White Sox<\/p>\n<p>            Starting Pitching (FIP-)<\/p>\n<p>            109 (9th)<\/p>\n<p>            93 (6th)<\/p>\n<p>            Mariners<\/p>\n<p>            Bullpen (FIP-)<\/p>\n<p>            108 (12th)<\/p>\n<p>            104 (10th)<\/p>\n<p>            Mariners<\/p>\n<p id=\"7Welfa\">Last year, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.southsidesox.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">White Sox<\/a> were 14-33 through 47 games. They would finish as the worst team ever. This year, the White Sox are 14-33 through 47 games. They just got swept by 18 runs at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bleedcubbieblue.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Cubs<\/a>. There\u2019s reason to believe this year\u2019s squad is a bit improved (their negative run differential is about half what it was at this point last year), and the Rockies seem to be redefining what \u201cworst ever\u201d means. But the White Sox remain one of the weakest opponents the Mariners will face this year. Still, the White Sox took a home series against the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.crawfishboxes.com\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Astros<\/a> earlier this month and a home series against the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.overthemonster.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Red Sox<\/a> in April. They have a respectable -1 run differential at Rate Field, which has played colder than any other park this year. It\u2019s expected to be cold, wet and windy this week. The series won\u2019t be a breeze. <\/p>\n<p>    White Sox Lineup<\/p>\n<p>          Player<\/p>\n<p>          Position<\/p>\n<p>          Bats<\/p>\n<p>          PA<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          ISO<\/p>\n<p>          wRC+<\/p>\n<p>          Player<\/p>\n<p>          Position<\/p>\n<p>          Bats<\/p>\n<p>          PA<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          ISO<\/p>\n<p>          wRC+<\/p>\n<p>            Chase Meidroth<\/p>\n<p>            SS<\/p>\n<p>            R<\/p>\n<p>            92<\/p>\n<p>            15.2%<\/p>\n<p>            12.0%<\/p>\n<p>            0.074<\/p>\n<p>            114<\/p>\n<p>            Miguel Vargas<\/p>\n<p>            3B<\/p>\n<p>            R<\/p>\n<p>            180<\/p>\n<p>            17.2%<\/p>\n<p>            9.4%<\/p>\n<p>            0.176<\/p>\n<p>            114<\/p>\n<p>            Joshua Palacios<\/p>\n<p>            RF<\/p>\n<p>            L<\/p>\n<p>            89<\/p>\n<p>            24.7%<\/p>\n<p>            10.1%<\/p>\n<p>            0.065<\/p>\n<p>            69<\/p>\n<p>            Luis Robert Jr.<\/p>\n<p>            CF<\/p>\n<p>            R<\/p>\n<p>            176<\/p>\n<p>            29.5%<\/p>\n<p>            11.9%<\/p>\n<p>            0.125<\/p>\n<p>            69<\/p>\n<p>            Edgar Quero<\/p>\n<p>            C<\/p>\n<p>            S<\/p>\n<p>            94<\/p>\n<p>            14.9%<\/p>\n<p>            10.6%<\/p>\n<p>            0.037<\/p>\n<p>            106<\/p>\n<p>            Andrew Vaughn<\/p>\n<p>            1B<\/p>\n<p>            R<\/p>\n<p>            182<\/p>\n<p>            23.6%<\/p>\n<p>            3.8%<\/p>\n<p>            0.132<\/p>\n<p>            45<\/p>\n<p>            Josh Rojas<\/p>\n<p>            2B<\/p>\n<p>            L<\/p>\n<p>            39<\/p>\n<p>            33.3%<\/p>\n<p>            10.3%<\/p>\n<p>            0.000<\/p>\n<p>            28<\/p>\n<p>            Tim Elko<\/p>\n<p>            DH<\/p>\n<p>            R<\/p>\n<p>            22<\/p>\n<p>            31.8%<\/p>\n<p>            4.5%<\/p>\n<p>            0.286<\/p>\n<p>            93<\/p>\n<p>            Brooks Baldwin<\/p>\n<p>            LF<\/p>\n<p>            S<\/p>\n<p>            142<\/p>\n<p>            26.8%<\/p>\n<p>            4.9%<\/p>\n<p>            0.115<\/p>\n<p>            64<\/p>\n<p id=\"kd2vO7\">The White Sox lineup is bad. There\u2019s some chance you\u2019ll recognize more names on their coaching staff. Rookie shortstop Chase Meidroth has been interesting, showing a great eye and contact rate while batting leadoff. Fellow rookie Edgar Quero has also shown a great eye and contact rate, albeit with a bit more power than Meidroth. Miguel Vargas, who the White Sox acquired from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.truebluela.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Dodgers<\/a> last year in the Michael Kopech deal, struggled early but has been hot for a month now and hit four homers last week. Everyone else has been bad. Luis Robert Jr. doubled his walk rate this year and leads MLB in stolen bases at 17. He also has a 30% strikeout rate with no power. Andrew Vaughn has pushed his walk rate to a new low as a first baseman with no power. Former Mariner Josh Rojas is looking for his first extra base hit after starting the year on the injured list. <\/p>\n<p>Probable Pitchers <\/p>\n<p id=\"cqr8d8\"><a href=\"https:\/\/library.fangraphs.com\/pitching\/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Updated Stuff+ Explainer<\/a> <\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\"   alt=\"MLB: Miami Marlins at Chicago White Sox\" loading=\"lazy\" data-upload-width=\"4000\" width=\"4000\" height=\"2666\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/usa_today_26146552.jpg\"\/><\/p>\n<p>        Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images<\/p>\n<p>    Game 1 Pitching Matchup<\/p>\n<p>          Pitcher<\/p>\n<p>          IP<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          HR\/FB%<\/p>\n<p>          GB%<\/p>\n<p>          ERA<\/p>\n<p>          FIP<\/p>\n<p>          Pitcher<\/p>\n<p>          IP<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          HR\/FB%<\/p>\n<p>          GB%<\/p>\n<p>          ERA<\/p>\n<p>          FIP<\/p>\n<p>            Davis Martin<\/p>\n<p>            49 1\/3<\/p>\n<p>            15.7%<\/p>\n<p>            5.7%<\/p>\n<p>            10.7%<\/p>\n<p>            45.7%<\/p>\n<p>            3.65<\/p>\n<p>            4.26<\/p>\n<p>            Luis Castillo<\/p>\n<p>            49 1\/3<\/p>\n<p>            18.2%<\/p>\n<p>            9.3%<\/p>\n<p>            6.5%<\/p>\n<p>            43.5%<\/p>\n<p>            3.65<\/p>\n<p>            3.86<\/p>\n<p>    RHP Davis Martin<\/p>\n<p>          Pitch<\/p>\n<p>          Frequency<\/p>\n<p>          Velocity<\/p>\n<p>          Stuff+<\/p>\n<p>          Whiff+<\/p>\n<p>          BIP+<\/p>\n<p>          xwOBA<\/p>\n<p>          Pitch<\/p>\n<p>          Frequency<\/p>\n<p>          Velocity<\/p>\n<p>          Stuff+<\/p>\n<p>          Whiff+<\/p>\n<p>          BIP+<\/p>\n<p>          xwOBA<\/p>\n<p>            Four-seam<\/p>\n<p>            29.3%<\/p>\n<p>            93.5<\/p>\n<p>            98<\/p>\n<p>            92<\/p>\n<p>            103<\/p>\n<p>            0.357<\/p>\n<p>            Sinker<\/p>\n<p>            7.5%<\/p>\n<p>            92.3<\/p>\n<p>            97<\/p>\n<p>            Cutter<\/p>\n<p>            22.0%<\/p>\n<p>            88.9<\/p>\n<p>            94<\/p>\n<p>            86<\/p>\n<p>            106<\/p>\n<p>            0.341<\/p>\n<p>            Changeup<\/p>\n<p>            24.1%<\/p>\n<p>            90.0<\/p>\n<p>            99<\/p>\n<p>            61<\/p>\n<p>            92<\/p>\n<p>            0.363<\/p>\n<p>            Curveball<\/p>\n<p>            2.4%<\/p>\n<p>            77.7<\/p>\n<p>            Slider<\/p>\n<p>            14.7%<\/p>\n<p>            83.8<\/p>\n<p>            97<\/p>\n<p>            89<\/p>\n<p>            95<\/p>\n<p>            0.426<\/p>\n<p id=\"G5MLUi\">Across his first three seasons in the majors, encompassing 162.2 innings, Davis Martin has posted FIPs of 4.28, 4.27, and 4.24. While the peripherals have stayed relatively stable, his ERA has dropped from 4.83 in his rookie season to 3.65 this year. He uses a kitchen sink approach to keep batters off balance, though none of his individual pitches are standouts. With a command-over-stuff profile and deep six-pitch repertoire, you might expect that his contact quality metrics would be driving his success. Unfortunately, his low ERA is a pretty significant mirage; he\u2019s allowed a 47.5% hard hit rate this year, a ten point increase over last year, and batters are barreling up his pitches more than 10% of the time. Regression is coming.<\/p>\n<p>    Game 2 Pitching Matchup<\/p>\n<p>          Pitcher<\/p>\n<p>          IP<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          HR\/FB%<\/p>\n<p>          GB%<\/p>\n<p>          ERA<\/p>\n<p>          FIP<\/p>\n<p>          Pitcher<\/p>\n<p>          IP<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          HR\/FB%<\/p>\n<p>          GB%<\/p>\n<p>          ERA<\/p>\n<p>          FIP<\/p>\n<p>            Bryse Wilson<\/p>\n<p>            33<\/p>\n<p>            12.4%<\/p>\n<p>            9.2%<\/p>\n<p>            17.8%<\/p>\n<p>            35.7%<\/p>\n<p>            6.00<\/p>\n<p>            6.47<\/p>\n<p>            Jhonathan D\u00edaz<\/p>\n<p>            30 2\/3<\/p>\n<p>            19.9%<\/p>\n<p>            7.4%<\/p>\n<p>            16.7%<\/p>\n<p>            53.7%<\/p>\n<p>            5.87<\/p>\n<p>            5.10<\/p>\n<p>        D\u00edaz\u2019s stats from minor leagues<\/p>\n<p>    RHP Bryse Wilson<\/p>\n<p>          Pitch<\/p>\n<p>          Frequency<\/p>\n<p>          Velocity<\/p>\n<p>          Stuff+<\/p>\n<p>          Whiff+<\/p>\n<p>          BIP+<\/p>\n<p>          xwOBA<\/p>\n<p>          Pitch<\/p>\n<p>          Frequency<\/p>\n<p>          Velocity<\/p>\n<p>          Stuff+<\/p>\n<p>          Whiff+<\/p>\n<p>          BIP+<\/p>\n<p>          xwOBA<\/p>\n<p>            Four-seam<\/p>\n<p>            12.3%<\/p>\n<p>            92.2<\/p>\n<p>            98<\/p>\n<p>            Sinker<\/p>\n<p>            26.0%<\/p>\n<p>            91.9<\/p>\n<p>            108<\/p>\n<p>            69<\/p>\n<p>            90<\/p>\n<p>            0.369<\/p>\n<p>            Cutter<\/p>\n<p>            24.7%<\/p>\n<p>            88.1<\/p>\n<p>            89<\/p>\n<p>            86<\/p>\n<p>            60<\/p>\n<p>            0.528<\/p>\n<p>            Changeup<\/p>\n<p>            19.3%<\/p>\n<p>            85.8<\/p>\n<p>            86<\/p>\n<p>            47<\/p>\n<p>            88<\/p>\n<p>            0.385<\/p>\n<p>            Curveball<\/p>\n<p>            17.7%<\/p>\n<p>            80.4<\/p>\n<p>            107<\/p>\n<p>            57<\/p>\n<p>            65<\/p>\n<p>            0.450<\/p>\n<p id=\"DubQU5\">It\u2019s been a long time since Bryse Wilson was a top prospect for the Braves; nearly a decade in fact. In that time, he has bounced around a bunch of teams, carving out a role as a swingman and long reliever for the Pirates, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brewcrewball.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Brewers<\/a>, and now White Sox. Every rebuilding club needs innings eaters, no matter their quality, and Wilson just happens to be the guy for Chicago right now. He has eaten innings, but has done nothing else to really benefit the Sox.<\/p>\n<p>    Game 3 Pitching Matchup<\/p>\n<p>          Pitcher<\/p>\n<p>          IP<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          HR\/FB%<\/p>\n<p>          GB%<\/p>\n<p>          ERA<\/p>\n<p>          FIP<\/p>\n<p>          Pitcher<\/p>\n<p>          IP<\/p>\n<p>          K%<\/p>\n<p>          BB%<\/p>\n<p>          HR\/FB%<\/p>\n<p>          GB%<\/p>\n<p>          ERA<\/p>\n<p>          FIP<\/p>\n<p>            Shane Smith<\/p>\n<p>            48 1\/3<\/p>\n<p>            21.3%<\/p>\n<p>            7.9%<\/p>\n<p>            4.2%<\/p>\n<p>            43.8%<\/p>\n<p>            2.05<\/p>\n<p>            3.17<\/p>\n<p>            Logan Evans<\/p>\n<p>            21<\/p>\n<p>            15.1%<\/p>\n<p>            8.6%<\/p>\n<p>            7.7%<\/p>\n<p>            37.1%<\/p>\n<p>            2.57<\/p>\n<p>            4.15<\/p>\n<p>    RHP Shane Smith<\/p>\n<p>          Pitch<\/p>\n<p>          Frequency<\/p>\n<p>          Velocity<\/p>\n<p>          Stuff+<\/p>\n<p>          Whiff+<\/p>\n<p>          BIP+<\/p>\n<p>          xwOBA<\/p>\n<p>          Pitch<\/p>\n<p>          Frequency<\/p>\n<p>          Velocity<\/p>\n<p>          Stuff+<\/p>\n<p>          Whiff+<\/p>\n<p>          BIP+<\/p>\n<p>          xwOBA<\/p>\n<p>            Four-seam<\/p>\n<p>            43.1%<\/p>\n<p>            95.0<\/p>\n<p>            91<\/p>\n<p>            131<\/p>\n<p>            94<\/p>\n<p>            0.310<\/p>\n<p>            Sinker<\/p>\n<p>            7.1%<\/p>\n<p>            94.9<\/p>\n<p>            97<\/p>\n<p>            Changeup<\/p>\n<p>            21.8%<\/p>\n<p>            90.0<\/p>\n<p>            103<\/p>\n<p>            111<\/p>\n<p>            83<\/p>\n<p>            0.296<\/p>\n<p>            Curveball<\/p>\n<p>            8.1%<\/p>\n<p>            81.5<\/p>\n<p>            96<\/p>\n<p>            Slider<\/p>\n<p>            19.4%<\/p>\n<p>            88.7<\/p>\n<p>            94<\/p>\n<p>            77<\/p>\n<p>            79<\/p>\n<p>            0.289<\/p>\n<p id=\"swcD5G\">Shane Smith\u2019s success has been the brightest beacon of hope for the White Sox this year. A Rule 5 pick from the Brewers, Smith has had a wild path to the majors. He threw all of 10.1 innings in college thanks to injury and COVID, signed with Milwaukee as an undrafted free agent, and very quickly rose through their system as a one-inning reliever. He only made the switch to the rotation midway through last year, but gaudy strikeout numbers in the minors made him an enticing pick for the White Sox, who had the roster room to take a risk on someone like Smith. Across his first nine starts in the big leagues, Smith has been brilliant, pitching to a 2.05 ERA and a 3.15 FIP.<\/p>\n<p>The Big Picture:<\/p>\n<p>    AL West Standings<\/p>\n<p>          Team<\/p>\n<p>          W-L<\/p>\n<p>          W%<\/p>\n<p>          Games Behind<\/p>\n<p>          Recent Form<\/p>\n<p>          Team<\/p>\n<p>          W-L<\/p>\n<p>          W%<\/p>\n<p>          Games Behind<\/p>\n<p>          Recent Form<\/p>\n<p>            Mariners<\/p>\n<p>            26-19<\/p>\n<p>            0.578<\/p>\n<p>            &#8212;<\/p>\n<p>            W-L-W-W-W<\/p>\n<p>            Astros<\/p>\n<p>            24-22<\/p>\n<p>            0.522<\/p>\n<p>            2.5<\/p>\n<p>            W-L-W-L-W<\/p>\n<p>            Rangers<\/p>\n<p>            25-23<\/p>\n<p>            0.521<\/p>\n<p>            2.5<\/p>\n<p>            W-W-L-W-L<\/p>\n<p>            Athletics<\/p>\n<p>            22-25<\/p>\n<p>            0.468<\/p>\n<p>            5.0<\/p>\n<p>            L-L-L-L-L<\/p>\n<p>            Angels<\/p>\n<p>            20-25<\/p>\n<p>            0.444<\/p>\n<p>            6.0<\/p>\n<p>            L-L-W-W-W<\/p>\n<p id=\"tJfWCS\">The Astros and Rangers split their four-game set last weekend, keeping them tied in the standings and well behind the M\u2019s. Houston travels to Tampa Bay this week while the Rangers head to New York for three games against the Y<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pinstripealley.com\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ankees.<\/a> In a huge upset, the Angels swept the Dodgers during Rivalry Weekend and now travel to Sacramento to face the Athletics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Mariners bounced back from a 1-5 homestand with a sweep in San Diego, outscoring the Padres 15-3&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":39388,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2379],"tags":[422,5,138,49,2561,439,181,3229,3228,620,4,3227,619,1646,3230,286,294,396,2562],"class_list":{"0":"post-39387","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chicago-white-sox","8":"tag-at","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-chicago","11":"tag-chicago-white-sox","12":"tag-chicagowhitesox","13":"tag-exclude-from-stn-video","14":"tag-front-page","15":"tag-landing","16":"tag-lookout","17":"tag-mariners","18":"tag-mlb","19":"tag-preview","20":"tag-seattle","21":"tag-series","22":"tag-series-previews","23":"tag-sox","24":"tag-white","25":"tag-white-sox","26":"tag-whitesox"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/114535973865943519","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39387"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39387\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39388"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}