{"id":397872,"date":"2025-10-24T15:03:12","date_gmt":"2025-10-24T15:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/397872\/"},"modified":"2025-10-24T15:03:12","modified_gmt":"2025-10-24T15:03:12","slug":"target-vladimir-guerrero-jr-in-game-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/397872\/","title":{"rendered":"Target Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in Game 1"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\t\tGambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/betting-editorial-standards\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">editorial standards<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s Game 1 of the <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/article\/best-baseball-betting-sites\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">World Series<\/a>, and books are anticipating individual success to come at a premium before the series takes its shape.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Total base market odds are priced modestly and the public is sure to slam them like bees on honey. <\/p>\n<p>With so much unknown between unfamiliar teams on the grand stage, where can we find an edge here that carries less risk?<\/p>\n<p>My answer is choosing the obvious, and that target is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He\u2019s available for even money to collect two or more bases Friday, which is an implied probability of 50 percent. <\/p>\n<p>This is the guy who leads all postseason players with six home runs, 280 wRC+ and a .442\/.510\/.930 slash line.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The power is prevalent as he projects a postseason-leading .516 xwOBA, a metric that estimates the quality of batted balls without luck, but he\u2019s racking up singles too.<\/p>\n<p>Guerrero has 10 of them through 11 games \u2014 six of which have come in six games in Toronto.<\/p>\n<p><img style=\"aspect-ratio:1.49926794;display:block\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-modal-image=\"37468398\" width=\"885\" height=\"590\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AP_ALCS_Mariners_Blue_Jays_Baseball_32693-2f25c-0.jpg\" alt=\"A Toronto Blue Jays batter swings at a baseball, while a Seattle Mariners catcher and a home plate umpire watch.\" class=\"wp-image-37468398\"  \/><br \/>\nToronto Blue Jays\u2019 Vladimir Guerrero Jr., right, hits a single against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning in Game 7 of baseball\u2019s American League Championship Series in Toronto, Monday, Oct. 20, 2025. AP<\/p>\n<p>In turn, he converted on two bases in four of the last five games in the ALCS and three of the four games in the divisional series.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>No, Guerrero hasn\u2019t hit as well at Rogers Centre as he has on the road \u2014 though he benefits from the right-on-left matchup he gets against Blake Snell.<\/p>\n<p>He mashed southpaws for .326 and six home runs.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting<\/p>\n<p>When the Jays met the Dodgers in August, Guerrero grabbed three extra base hits through as many games.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>I wrote on not overthinking Guerrero to cash on his bases prop in Game 6 of the ALCS. <\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m willing to double down on that notion for the same reasons \u2014 now magnified \u2014 only six days later.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>THE PLAY: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+100, <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/article\/fanduel-sign-up-offer\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FanDuel<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n<p>Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":397873,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2378],"tags":[5,684,377,2554,57,4,722,185,1272,723,282,70,2553,93,1039],"class_list":{"0":"post-397872","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-toronto-blue-jays","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-betting","10":"tag-blue-jays","11":"tag-bluejays","12":"tag-los-angeles-dodgers","13":"tag-mlb","14":"tag-mlb-betting","15":"tag-sports","16":"tag-sports-betting","17":"tag-sports-picks","18":"tag-toronto","19":"tag-toronto-blue-jays","20":"tag-torontobluejays","21":"tag-vladimir-guerrero-jr","22":"tag-world-series"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115429756392171932","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=397872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/397872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/397873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=397872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=397872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=397872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}