{"id":438083,"date":"2025-11-18T21:32:12","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T21:32:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/438083\/"},"modified":"2025-11-18T21:32:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-18T21:32:12","slug":"a-closer-look-at-devin-williams","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/438083\/","title":{"rendered":"A closer look at Devin Williams"},"content":{"rendered":"

Boy, do Yankees fans not have the stomach for Devin Williams. Is he a good idea for the Giants? Jeff Passan seems to think so<\/a>. And earlier today, Jon Morosi <\/a>\u2014 who has probably lost his credibility after his reporting on Shohei Ohtani<\/a> \u2014 fueled rumors that the San Francisco Giants have interest in this (former?) stud closer.<\/p>\n

In 2023, Devin Williams was named to the National League All-Star Team to represent the Milwaukee Brewers on the basis of a stellar line of 20 saves (25 opportunities) in 33.1 IP, 45 K, 18 BB, 3 HR, a 1.89 ERA and 2.48 FIP. He finished that season 36 saves in 40 chances, 87 K to 28 BB and just 4 HR in 58.2 IP with a 1.53 ERA and 2.66 FIP and picked up a couple of MVP votes (19th out of 23). This made him worth 1.8 FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement (2.6 on Baseball Reference). In 2024, he missed most of the season with a pair of fractured vertebra. When he returned, though, he racked up 14 saves in 21.2 IP and struck out 38 while walking only 11. He sported a 1.25 ERA and 2.06 in a limited sample, and that offseason the Brewers traded him to the Yankees.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s where the profile gets dicey. Does having a tough year for the Yankees make a free agent a bad option for other teams? Gosh, I\u2019d hope not. Also, a tiny wade into the pool of Williams\u2019 profile doesn\u2019t indicate a massive fall off. He\u2019s a good player and was good enough in New York.<\/p>\n

Dodger fan and Baseball Savant editor Mike Petriello wrote a really strong piece today about how his 4.79 ERA in 2025 doesn\u2019t tell the full story about his season<\/a>. He arrives at this initial conclusion:<\/p>\n

The way Williams pitched this year (attempting to strip out the effects of ballpark, defense and luck) tells the story of a pitcher who really earned an ERA closer to 3, not nearly 5.<\/p>\n

And then provides this whopper of a detail that\u2019s sort of the whole issue with being a relief pitcher:<\/p>\n

It\u2019s still the case that Williams allowed more runs were charged to his record this season (37 overall, 33 earned) than in any other season of his career. Indeed, in the 235.2 innings and 241 games he\u2019d pitched prior to arriving in New York, he\u2019d allowed just 48 earned runs and 63 overall. He\u2019s allowed 100 for his career now, so the Yankees season accounts for 37% of his career runs allowed total. Yikes.<\/p>\n

When we\u2019re talking about relievers, we are talking about smaller things like this. The sample size being small is simply a wrinkle in the analysis. That\u2019s why I tend to prefer looking at something like FIP or xFIP versus ERA, which is what Petriello is getting at in his analysis. Williams\u2019 4.79 ERA obscures a 2.68 FIP, just 0.02 points off his last All-Star season of 2023. He\u2019s a strikeout machine who that doesn\u2019t give up home runs \u2014 just 20 home runs allowed in his entire career! That\u2019s a week of work for Carson Seymour \u2014 and who issues walks more strategically than chaotically.<\/p>\n

He dominates with a changeup-fastball combo in the style of a Trevor Hoffman. Yes, that average four-seam fastball velocity has declined over the years, but let\u2019s check see that visualized just to get a sense on if that\u2019s meaningful for at least the next couple of years:<\/p>\n

2019: 96.2 mph
2020: 96.5 mph
2021: 95.4 mph
2022: 93.9 mph
2023: 94.2 mph
2024: 94.7 mph
2025: 94.1 mph<\/p>\n

I see a pitcher who has been settled into a lower velocity for several years now and is pitching well because of sequencing and command of the strike zone. He gets a lot of swing and miss, chase, and groundballs. He\u2019s projected to be a great closer for at least the next couple of seasons, I\u2019d think.<\/p>\n

His 2023 and 2025 seasons are similar enough that it should make you reconsider complaints emanating from the Yankees side of the equation:<\/p>\n

2023: 58.2 IP 87 K (37.6 K%) 28 BB (12.1 BB%), 4.0 H\/9, 4 HR, 1.53 ERA, 2.66 FIP, +1.8 fWAR, +2.6 rWAR
2025: 62.0 IP 90 K (34.7 K%), 25 BB (9.7 BB%), 6.5 H\/9, 5 HR, 4.79 ERA, 2.68 FIP, +1.4 fWAR, -0.3 rWAR<\/p>\n

Would he be a great fit on the Giants? Absolutely. The Giants need all the help they can get. Unfortunately, spending $16+ million a year on a closer would not seem to be within the team\u2019s budget<\/a>, currently or even if ownership greenlights an increase. I talked about this a week and a half ago when assessing MLB Trade Rumors\u2019 predictions for which free agents might come to the Giants this offseason<\/a>: \u201cthey\u2019ve got to spread the money around and spending money on the bullpen is closer to luxury than necessity.\u201d<\/p>\n

So, why has this rumor manifested? Williams doesn\u2019t even come up in Shayna Rubin\u2019s piece that just went up on the Chronicle which speculates on which direction the team might take to firm up their soft spots<\/a>. This does appear to have started as idle speculation by national writers based on a general knowledge of the Giants\u2019 needs.<\/p>\n

Giants GM Zack Minasian had nothing to do with the Brewers\u2019 drafts when Devin Williams was with the organization, either; and, Buster Posey only faced him once. Williams did strike him out, but something tells me that a strikeout looking from August 30, 2021 <\/a>has stayed in his mind all these years.<\/p>\n

At first, I doubted that there was a Missouri connection between Devin Williams and Tony Vitello, even though they were both born in St. Louis. Vitello\u2019s alma mater is the Jesuit private school while Williams played for the public school 12 miles north. Williams was drafted out of high school in 2013 when Vitello was an assistant at Texas Christian University. However, Jon Morosi was adamant:<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been able to ascertain that the Tigers \u2014 and yes, Tony Vitello\u2019s San Francisco Giants \u2014 have some interest in Devin Williams as well.<\/p>\n

So\u2026 I can see why this story has legs. On the other hand, is this a situation where Morosi simply asked Vitello if he\u2019d be interested in a fellow Missourian\/fellow St. Louiser? I think that\u2019s likely. After all, it seems really unlikely that the Giants would simply sign a closer and call it an offseason.<\/p>\n

(nervous chuckling) They\u2019ve-they\u2019ve-they\u2019ve never done that before, r-r-r-right?<\/p>\n

Well, let\u2019s look at that 2016-2017 offseason, when they signed Mark Melancon, the last time the team spent big on a closer (and who is still being paid in deferrals this offseason!).<\/p>\n

Mark Melancon (CL), 4 years\/$62 million
Nick Hundley (C), 1 year\/$2 million
Gordon Beckham (IF), MiLB\/$2 million in majors
David Hernandez (RHP), MiLB\/$1 million in majors
Aaron Hill (3B), MiLB\/$0.75 million in majors<\/p>\n

Ah! Well then. No wonder Buster Posey brought back Bobby Evans. They need an experienced person to guide the franchise through another runthrough of 2016-2018. Okay, okay. That\u2019s mean. Maybe it wouldn\u2019t be so bad. The lineup isn\u2019t a shambles \u2014 on paper, anyway \u2014 and maybe Buster & Zack will have better luck at finding cheaper options to build up depth.<\/p>\n

The only question left is whether or not Devin Williams would sign with the Giants, a team that will need a dozen or more things to go right to put them in a position to halfway compete for the third Wild Card spot. The Giants\u2019 defense wasn\u2019t much better than the Yankees\u2019 (-10.8 Defensive Runs Above Average to -12.4), but we know that\u2019s largely because of Patrick Bailey. Tony Vitello and staff will need to perform a miracle or three with the outfield defense. Maybe they will! In any case, if the Giants offer Williams the most money, he\u2019ll take it; but, if they do that, I think it should still be treated as a headscratcher.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Boy, do Yankees fans not have the stomach for Devin Williams. Is he a good idea for the…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":438084,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2408],"tags":[5,162,4,975,378,66,4343,4340,4344,4341,4342],"class_list":{"0":"post-438083","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-san-francisco-giants","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-giants","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-rumors","12":"tag-san-francisco","13":"tag-san-francisco-giants","14":"tag-sanfrancisco","15":"tag-sanfranciscogiants","16":"tag-sf","17":"tag-sf-giants","18":"tag-sfgiants"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438083","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=438083"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/438083\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/438084"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=438083"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=438083"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=438083"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}