when you look at their predictions<\/a> for what each player might get a few interesting possibilities stand out. Perhaps the A\u2019s would have to top a predicted market, as they did with Severino, but sometimes that can be done by adding years instead of AAV and the A\u2019s are an appealing team right now on the field with their electric core even if they can\u2019t offer the best ballpark\/crowd situation.<\/p>\nIt\u2019s also essential to note that sometimes MLBTR\u2019s projections are spot on and sometimes they are way way off in either direction. So what we are working with today is not necessarily any player\u2019s true market, just the projections offered by one prominent and relatively reputable group.<\/p>\n
Here are a few names that pop out at me as being intriguing targets if the market is as MLBTR guesses:<\/p>\n
Zac Gallen (4 years, $80M)<\/p>\n
Gallen established himself as a legitimate front of the rotation SP in 2022 (12-4, 2.54 ERA, 4.2 WAR) and 2023 (17-9, 3.47 ERA, 5.2 WAR) and has continued to be durable making 28 starts in 2024 and 33 starts in 2025.<\/p>\n
MLBTR suggests his value might be depressed by a poor 2025 season (13-15, 4.83 ERA, 1.1 WAR) so suitors will be betting on a \u201cbounce back\u201d season or 4 from Gallen.<\/p>\n
However there are indicators that a bounce back is in the cards. Gallen maintained his fastball velocity (93.5 MPH last season, 93.6 MPH career), he was healthy enough to make 33 starts, and his second half was much stronger than his first half: a 3.97 ERA in which opponents batted just .216\/.269\/.380 against him.<\/p>\n
Now he was also HR prone (31), which isn\u2019t the best fit with Sacramento\u2019s launching paddy ways, but a Gallen who returns to form is the \u201c#2 SP\u201d type the A\u2019s are seeking and $20M\/year is a downright bargain for that kind of pitcher. It\u2019s a low enough AAV that the A\u2019s could gamble on him and lose and be better off than they are if Severino continues to disappoint and stays the length of his deal.<\/p>\n
As longer term gambles go a 4 year deal for Gallen, who turned 30 in August, seems like a solid one at $20 AAV. If the A\u2019s offered this to Gallen I would not mind at all.<\/p>\n
Blogfather Prediction: I suspect MLBTR\u2019s projection is low. Almost every team is looking for starting pitching and that includes several teams for whom exceeding 4\/$80M is no big deal. I don\u2019t think the A\u2019s will pass on Gallen at 4\/$80M but I do think he\u2019ll get more like 5\/$110M when the dust clears and it won\u2019t be from the A\u2019s.<\/p>\n
Jorge Polanco (3 years, $42M)<\/p>\n
Polanco, 32, had a terrific year with the Mariners, batting .265\/.326\/.495 and fielding the closest to average (-2 OAA) of any season since 2021. Of course it helped that he only accrued 287.1 innings there, serving as DH for a lot of the year.<\/p>\n
Still, Polanco is a career 112 wRC+ hitter and a switch hitter (116 wRC+ career batting LH and 100 wRC+ batting RH). Given the relatively affordable deal MLBTR projects, would Polanco offer the A\u2019s a much needed solution at 2B to accompany Jacob Wilson and Leo De Vries on the left side of the infield and perhaps Max Muncy in a super utility role? Polanco could also slide into a DH role down the road if his defense declines again into his mid-30s and Brent Rooker is traded.<\/p>\n
Blogfather Prediction: I think MLBTR\u2019s projection is reasonable, but I think ultimately the A\u2019s won\u2019t want to commit to Polanco as their 2Bman for 3 years when DH is already taken. He\u2019s a good (not great) hitter but just not a very good defender and injuries have kept him off the field lately. So maybe too many red flags even though that deal probably makes the A\u2019s better in 2026.<\/p>\n
Tyler Rogers (2 years, $18M)<\/p>\n
As noted in the writeup, relievers who don\u2019t throw smoke are often underpaid in free agency even if their performance dictates they should garner more interest. Phil Maton is cited as another example.<\/p>\n
If Rogers\u2019 market truly is 2\/$18M I hope the A\u2019s rush over to his house with a contract because to me that\u2019s a steal. Tyler Rogers is really good and even though he turns 35 next month he is likely to age well given his style and repertoire.<\/p>\n
This is a guy with a career 2.76 ERA with a 1.63 BB\/9 IP rate, who is only getting better (1.98 ERA in 2025 with an 0.81 BB\/9 IP rate). His fastball averages 83 MPH, his career K rate is 6.50\/9 IP\u2026and he\u2019s just really good.<\/p>\n
Rogers is kind of my holy grail for a free agent I think the A\u2019s should actually \u201coverpay\u201d and they will still get more than fair value. I would offer Rogers 3 years without batting an eye and if it takes 3\/$27M to lure him I think for $9M AAV you have a worthy set-up man who is reliable and durable for the next 3 seasons.<\/p>\n
Blogfather Prediction: The A\u2019s do have a history of signing free agent relievers, sometimes to one year deals (LeClerc) and sometimes to 3 year deals (Ryan Madson). I think the A\u2019s will take a real shot at Rogers and if they offer an extra year compared to other suitors, maybe they can land him.<\/p>\n
The A\u2019s should also go after Phil Maton, who doesn\u2019t even crack the top 50 list. Maton was terrific in 2025, posting a 2.79 ERA with 81 K in 61.1 IP and posting 1.5 WAR, which is a lot for a reliever. He was paid $2M. And his success wasn\u2019t fluky in that Maton has a career 10.27 K\/9IP rate with ERAs under 4.00 four years running now.<\/p>\n
Offer Maton, 32, a 2-3 year deal for several million a year and you will probably be making the best offer by far. And you will have a bargain.<\/p>\n
Chris Bassitt (2 years\/$38M)<\/p>\n
Bassitt distinguished himself in the post-season but not as a SP. He came out of the bullpen following a lower back injury and was an integral part of the Blue Jays\u2019 success in the ALCS and World Series.<\/p>\n
Bassitt showed he might be a plus reliever, maybe even a multi-inning \u201c7th-8th inning\u201d guy, if used out of the bullpen but undoubtedly he wants to continue starting and will want to sign with a team prepared to put him back in the rotation.<\/p>\n
Bassitt doesn\u2019t quite qualify as the \u201cfront of the rotation\u201d arm the A\u2019s are ideally seeking, but he could lay claim to a team\u2019s #3 spot. With his seemingly endless assortment of pitches Bassitt is still effective as well as remarkably consistent. His WAR totals going back each of the last 5 seasons: 2.4, 2.3, 2.6, 2.8, 3.3.<\/p>\n
The question is, how much should a smaller market team like the A\u2019s pay for what appear to be \u201c2.5 WAR or so\u201d seasons? The only way the A\u2019s lure Bassitt for a green and gold reunion is probably to offer an extra year over his best suitor.<\/p>\n
If no one is willing to risk more than a 2 year commitment, the A\u2019s could swoop in and offer 3 years. Would something like a 3\/$45M offer beat the competition and inspire Bassitt to be a good dog and sign with the A\u2019s? It\u2019s possible, though he\u2019s likely to have quite a few suitors especially following his post-season heroics.<\/p>\n
Blogfather Prediction: I think some team(s) will offer Bassitt a 3 year deal, forcing the A\u2019s to give a 4-year deal if they want to offer \u201cmore years\u201d. Bassitt will be 37 when spring training begins and I doubt the A\u2019s will entertain a 4-year offer.<\/p>\n
There are some thoughts on which to ruminate and discuss. And there are plenty of other free agents you can bring into the conversation. Should be, as always, an interesting off-season\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In general I think the A\u2019s should stay away from the free agent market, the shopping venue where…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":453318,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2391],"tags":[44003,37407,537,5,4558,4,3226],"class_list":{"0":"post-453317","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-athletics","8":"tag-as-commentary-and-analysis","9":"tag-as-news","10":"tag-athletics","11":"tag-baseball","12":"tag-general","13":"tag-mlb","14":"tag-mlb-athletics"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115630107756917713","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/453317","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=453317"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/453317\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/453318"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=453317"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=453317"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=453317"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}