CINCINNATI (WXIX) – When the Cincinnati Reds\u2019 season ended last year in Los Angeles, during the aftermath of the Reds\u2019 series loss to the Dodgers in the playoffs, Nick Krall, Brad Meador and Emilio Pag\u00e1n stepped into a quiet cafeteria for a conversation. <\/p>\n
What was said in that conversation remains between them, but it\u2019s no secret that Pag\u00e1n loved pitching for the Reds and that the front office and coaching staff loved having him in Cincinnati. There was always going to be mutual interest in Pag\u00e1n returning to the Reds, assuming the closer market fit the limited financial flexibility that the Reds had to work with entering 2026. <\/p>\n
The fear was that Pag\u00e1n\u2019s price tag on the market would become greater than what the Reds could afford. <\/p>\n
All along, the Reds have asserted that their biggest need this winter was in the bullpen. Of course the lineup needs help. But with four relievers hitting free agency, including Pag\u00e1n, the had spots to fill. The most important one of those spots is in the ninth inning. <\/p>\n
On Wednesday, the Reds opened their offseason by agreeing to a deal with Pag\u00e1n (pending a physical). The deal is for two years and $20 million, according to multiple reports, with an opt-out after the first year.<\/p>\n
The $10-million per year deal takes up a good chunk of the projected $15-to-$20 million that the Reds have to work with this offseason (unless there are further changes made to creatively free up payroll). <\/p>\n
Pag\u00e1n represented a sweet spot in the closer market this winter. <\/p>\n
Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley have been elite (they also each had very disappointing stretches in 2025), and they signed for $17 million and $14 million respectively. With the $4-to-$7 million difference between those salaries and Pag\u00e1n\u2019s, the Reds can fit in another solid relief pitcher (they especially need a lefty) into their offseason plans this winter. They could also use those savings to add a better bat. <\/p>\n
The potential closers projected to make less than $10 million carry a lot more risk than Pag\u00e1n. <\/p>\n
Pag\u00e1n isn\u2019t a sure thing. No free agent reliever is a sure thing. It\u2019s the most volatile, most hard-to-predict market in sports (as an example, no one would have expected Jeff Hoffman and Luke Weaver to become standout relievers while Alexis D\u00edaz flamed out).<\/p>\n
There are flaws on Pag\u00e1n\u2019s free agent resume. He allows more home runs than you\u2019d want from a closer pitching in GABP, and the home run ball cost the Reds some games in the ninth inning last season. Pag\u00e1n is 34, and only six MLB relievers posted a 1.0 WAR season or better last year (Pag\u00e1n had a 1.0 WAR season in 2025, according to FanGraphs)<\/p>\n
He has been a middle reliever for nearly all of his nine-year career. The Reds are buying that Pag\u00e1n\u2019s career year in 2025 wasn\u2019t a one-hit wonder and that he can continue to take steps forward. <\/p>\n
They\u2019re betting on the fact that he doesn\u2019t suffer from any fatigue and take a step back following a 2025 season where he pitched in a career-high 70 games (almost all of them very high stress).<\/p>\n
But even if Pag\u00e1n is just an average closer, $10 million is pretty good value. There\u2019s also no long-term commitment beyond 2027. <\/p>\n
There\u2019s also less risk around Pag\u00e1n than the typical relief free agent. He has been extremely durable. He\u2019s an elite clubhouse presence. He\u2019s more than willing to shift into a different role if a better closer option emerges. <\/p>\n
He was also really good, underrated even, in 2025. <\/p>\n
Sources around the game (not affiliated with the Reds) were surprised that Pag\u00e1n wasn\u2019t an All-Star last year. The coolest Reds win of the season outside of the stretch run last season was in New York in July when Pag\u00e1n stared down, outdueled and flat out beat Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Pete Alonso to clinch a win.<\/p>\n
Then during the final week of the season, Pag\u00e1n accomplished the most underrated feat of the Reds\u2019 season, pitched in four straight games and played an indispensable role in getting the Reds to the playoffs. <\/p>\n
His stuff looked sharp all season, and there was an analytical reason behind his late-career breakout. <\/p>\n
With the Reds, he developed a plan to use his fastball more. He felt like he got too far away from that pitch, his best pitch, in previous seasons. <\/p>\n
His fastball has elite movement and was statistically one of the better pitches in MLB in 2025. The eye test matches those stats, and Pag\u00e1n was able to lean on that fastball in massive moments last year against some of the best hitters in the game. Pag\u00e1n has learned a lot about his fastball and how and when to best deploy it with Cincinnati, and that development is a good sign that he can keep his production up. <\/p>\n
Signing Pag\u00e1n feels like a very safe and overall solid move for the Reds. They know what they\u2019re getting, both as a pitcher and as a person, and they know that there\u2019s a good vision for what Pag\u00e1n looks like on the mound in Cincinnati.<\/p>\n
The other risk from a team perspective is that bringing him back limits other opportunities this winter to really strengthen their lineup. The lineup most definitely needs help. The Reds should be much more aggressive to bolster than unit. They\u2019ve been missing a power bat for the last three years. That type of presence in the lineup can push them over the top next year. <\/p>\n
But look at the 2021 Reds. They had an elite offense and two of the best corner outfield bats in MLB. Their bullpen was not workable. It cost them games multiple times a week. It was the reason why they missed the playoffs. <\/p>\n
You can\u2019t mess with bullpens (you also can\u2019t mess with starting pitching depth).<\/p>\n
Francona has a saying, \u201cThe best way to ruin your team was to (mess) your bullpen up.\u201d<\/p>\n
If the Reds didn\u2019t make an impact move to address their bullpen this winter, then they probably would have entered 2026 with a high-leverage reliever who ended last season in Triple-A. <\/p>\n
Bringing Pag\u00e1n back puts the structure of the Reds\u2019 bullpen entering 2026 in much better shape (they still need another reliever or two). <\/p>\n
It also ensures that last year\u2019s Opening Day scene doesn\u2019t repeat itself. <\/p>\n
There won\u2019t be a mystery box running out of the bullpen in the ninth inning to protect the lead in the first game of the season. There won\u2019t be another Ian Gibaut situation. <\/p>\n
Keeping Pag\u00e1n brings a good amount of certainty into the ninth inning in 2026, and the Reds didn\u2019t need to break the bank to make that happen.<\/p>\n
2025 WXIX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"CINCINNATI (WXIX) – When the Cincinnati Reds\u2019 season ended last year in Los Angeles, during the aftermath of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":189020,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2403],"tags":[3497,5,160,4,44393,673,67,4311,4310],"class_list":{"0":"post-459928","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-st-louis-cardinals","8":"tag-anderson","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-cardinals","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-snow","13":"tag-st-louis","14":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","15":"tag-stlouis","16":"tag-stlouiscardinals"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115658914775493788","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459928","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=459928"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459928\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/189020"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=459928"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=459928"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=459928"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}