{"id":502661,"date":"2026-01-02T13:16:12","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T13:16:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/502661\/"},"modified":"2026-01-02T13:16:12","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T13:16:12","slug":"the-brewers-and-the-2026-zips-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/502661\/","title":{"rendered":"The Brewers and the 2026 ZiPS Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dan Szymborski\u2019s ZiPS projections for 2026 have been up at FanGraphs<\/a> for about a month, so let\u2019s check them out! But before we do that, let\u2019s do a quick look at last season\u2019s projections and how those worked out.<\/p>\n

The Brewers tend to be a little tough to project because they rely on so many young players, and Szymborski\u2019s system is based on what a player has done over the previous three seasons. For many on the Brewers, there aren\u2019t three full seasons of major league experience to look at, and the Brewers also tend to excel in finding hidden value from players who haven\u2019t quite clicked yet.<\/p>\n

Still, let\u2019s see how Szymborski did last season, limiting the list to players who did appear in some capacity with the major league team. (WAR numbers are all from FanGraphs, so in the case of some pitchers, there could be some difference between those and Baseball Reference.)<\/p>\n

Players undervalued by ZiPS<\/p>\n

The big thing here is the bullpen. I was on record last season<\/a> as saying that it was absolute insanity that not one relief pitcher was projected to have an ERA+ better than 122 when they\u2019d had nine pitchers over that mark in 2024. I was right, though the Brewers had only five relievers with significant innings who surpassed the 122 ERA+ threshold in 2025. In any case, here are players undervalued by ZiPS, starting with those relievers:<\/p>\n

Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Jared Koenig, and Aaron Ashby all had ERA+ numbers of at least 145, while they were projected for 122, 112, 106, and 103, respectively.Grant Anderson is the other reliever who was seriously undervalued, though I don\u2019t blame ZiPS for that one; he came out of nowhere.One more bullpen piece was undervalued: Nick Mears. He didn\u2019t have a great season, but he was better than the 108 ERA+ and 0.2 WAR he was projected for.Also on the pitching staff, we had undervalued rookie seasons from Chad Patrick and Jacob Misiorowski, who were projected for a combined 0.9 WAR and finished with 3.8 total.Freddy Peralta massively outperformed his projected ERA+ of 110 (he finished at 154) and WAR of 2.3 (3.6).Brandon Woodruff didn\u2019t quite hit his projected innings (81 versus 64 2\/3), but he was more valuable in those innings than ZiPS expected he would be (projected for 120 ERA+ and 1.4 WAR, finished with 130 ERA+ and 1.8 WAR).On the position player side, Brice Turang and his offensive breakout led the undervalued crowd. (This is another one I can\u2019t blame ZiPS for.)Sal Frelick also outperformed his projections offensively (projected 98 OPS+ versus 111 actual, 2.2 WAR versus 3.6).In the \u201cundervalued rookie\u201d group were Caleb Durbin (projected 411 PA, 90 OPS+, 1.2 WAR, actual 506 PA, 101 OPS+, 2.6 WAR) and Isaac Collins (projected 474 PA, 88 OPS+, 1.1 WAR, actual 441 PA, 118 OPS+, 2.6 WAR).Andruw Monasterio and Jake Bauers were a little strange in that neither played anywhere close to as much as ZiPS projected (378 PA for Mona and 347 for Bauers versus 135 and 218 actual PA, respectively), but both played at a much higher level (Mona had a 109 OPS+ versus projected 85, Bauers had 111 versus 92).<\/p>\n

Players overvalued by ZiPS<\/p>\n

Some of these were due to injuries, but there\u2019s one obvious one.<\/p>\n

Joey Ortiz finished his rookie season with a league-average OPS, and ZiPS thought he could do it again. He did not.Garrett Mitchell is difficult to make any conclusions about, but even when healthy, he vastly underperformed his projected OPS+ (106 versus 63).Vinny Capra was expected to be a solid utility player (426 PA, 89 OPS+, 1.4 WAR). He hit .074\/.121\/.130 in 59 PA and got designated for assignment.On the pitching side, Nestor Cortes was expected to be the staff\u2019s best pitcher. Instead, he had a historically awful start on the second day of the season, made one more appearance for the club, got injured, and got traded before he made it back to the big league roster.Aaron Civale was expected to be about a league-average innings eater (a fair guess). He lasted only 22 innings with the Brewers and had an 86 ERA+ before he was traded to Chicago for Andrew Vaughn.Relievers Bryan Hudson, Connor Thomas, Joey Payamps, and Craig Yoho were expected to contribute to the big-league roster, and none of them really did.<\/p>\n

Players who ZiPS had about right about<\/p>\n

ZiPS did surprisingly well in 2025 with Brewers position players, and extremely badly with pitchers. The players whom I\u2019d say ZiPS did a good job with:<\/p>\n

William Contreras (projected: 567 PA, 122 OPS+, 4.2 WAR; actual: 659 PA, 111 OPS+, 3.6 WAR) underperformed a little because of his slow start, but they\u2019re in the same ballpark.ZiPS had Jackson Chourio pegged: they projected 605 PA, a 108 OPS+, and 2.6 WAR. His actual numbers: 589 PA, 112 OPS+, 2.9 WAR, so he slightly overperformed.Christian Yelich was another one: he stayed healthier than ZiPS expected but produced about the same value. (Projected: 493 PA, 119 OPS+, 2.3 WAR. Actual: 644 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.4 WAR.)Part-time players Rhys Hoskins, Eric Haase, and Blake Perkins performed within their expectations.On the pitching side, the only player I\u2019d say performed about as expected was Jose Quintana (projections: 137 IP, 95 ERA+, 1.3 WAR, actual: 131 2\/3 IP, 105 ERA+, 0.8 WAR)<\/p>\n

Players who didn\u2019t play enough to make any determination<\/p>\n

This category includes Tyler Black, Oliver Dunn, Anthony Seigler, Robert Gasser, DL Hall, Logan Henderson, Carlos Rodriguez, and Easton McGee. Those players all contributed to the major league team, but didn\u2019t do enough to determine whether the ZiPS projection (whether good or bad) was accurate or not.<\/p>\n

Okay: let\u2019s look ahead to 2026, with breakdowns by position groups.<\/p>\n

William Contreras: 648 PA, 121 OPS+, 4.8 WAR
Brice Turang: 614 PA, 97 OPS+, 3.1 WAR
Caleb Durbin: 501 PA, 99 OPS+, 2.5 WAR
Joey Ortiz: 500 PA, 90 OPS+, 1.9 WAR
Jeferson Quero: 353 PA, 79 OPS+, 1.1 WAR
Andruw Monasterio: 351 PA, 92 OPS+, 1.1 WAR
Andrew Vaughn: 577 PA, 99 OPS+, 0.8 WAR
Jake Bauers: 313 PA, 106 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
Tyler Black: 451 PA, 92 OPS+, 0.6 WAR
Anthony Seigler: 390 PA, 82 OPS+, 0.0 WAR<\/p>\n

This projection makes it plain that Contreras, if healthy, should be one of the surest things in the league this year; this estimate puts him right back at the level he was in 2023 and 2024, which is \u201cin the running for best catcher in baseball.\u201d<\/p>\n

Understandably, ZiPS is dubious of Turang\u2019s offensive breakout; he should still offer value even if he does regress to roughly league average, as projected here. The opposite is true of Ortiz: ZiPS thinks he will also return closer to his 2024 levels, but in this case, it\u2019s a good thing.<\/p>\n

If ZiPS is right about Vaughn and Bauers, then the Brewers will have a problem at first base. But I think it\u2019s reasonable to think that the ZiPS system may not properly reflect the improvements that both hitters made in the second half last season.<\/p>\n

Speaking of problems, I think most of us expect Milwaukee to bring in a backup catcher before the season starts, but if they don\u2019t, Jeferson Quero might be in a bit over his head offensively.<\/p>\n

Jackson Chourio: 630 PA, 116 OPS+, 3.4 WAR
Sal Frelick: 572 PA, 100 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
Christian Yelich: 560 PA, 108 OPS+, 1.8 WAR
Brandon Lockridge: 356 PA, 84 OPS+, 1.7 WAR
Blake Perkins: 344 PA, 81 OPS+, 1.4 WAR
Garrett Mitchell: 218 PA, 93 OPS+, 1.0 WAR
Akil Baddoo (listed with Tigers): 469 PA, 100 OPS+, 1.3 WAR<\/p>\n

ZiPS projects a modest bump in productivity for Chourio, back to about the level he was at in his 2024 rookie season. That\u2019s a fair conservative estimate, but fans will surely be hoping for a bigger breakout.<\/p>\n

There are also small adjustments over last season\u2019s projections for Frelick and Yelich: they expect Frelick to basically split the difference between his last two seasons (resulting in a small step back from 2025 levels) and Yelich to regress a bit, surely because of his age (he recently turned 34).<\/p>\n

The number for Lockridge is a bit surprising, but if the Brewers don\u2019t acquire another outfielder before spring training, it\u2019s entirely reasonable to think that he could get to 356 plate appearances. That 84 OPS+ would be better than Perkins\u2019 the last two years. Between Lockridge and Perkins here, it\u2019s not difficult to imagine a \u201cthird outfielder\u201d that gets 600 plate appearances and offers roughly three WAR because of the speed and defense they provide.<\/p>\n

Projecting Mitchell is a fool\u2019s errand at this point. He could be healthy, but he probably won\u2019t be. He could be good, but who knows?<\/p>\n

Freddy Peralta: 160 2\/3 IP, 110 ERA+, 2.5 WAR
Jacob Misiorowski: 116 2\/3 IP, 107 ERA+, 1.7 WAR
Brandon Woodruff: 97 1\/3 IP, 115 ERA+, 1.6 WAR
Quinn Priester: 143 IP, 101 ERA+, 1.6 WAR
Logan Henderson: 93 2\/3 IP, 100 ERA+, 1.1 WAR
Tobias Myers: 112 IP, 99 ERA+, 1.1 WAR
Chad Patrick: 136 IP, 95 ERA+, 1.1 WAR
Coleman Crow: 85 1\/3 IP, 101 ERA+, 1.0 WAR
Robert Gasser: 79 IP, 104 ERA+, 0.9 WAR
Carlos Rodr\u00edguez: 102 2\/3 IP, 91 ERA+, 0.6 WAR<\/p>\n

ZiPS doesn\u2019t seem to believe Peralta will build on last season\u2019s top-five Cy Young finish, and instead gives him a projection very similar to last year\u2019s, which would put him around the production levels of 2022-24. The projection system also thinks Priester\u2019s success last season was fluky, and doesn\u2019t think Henderson can recreate the success he had in limited innings last year.<\/p>\n

Further down the list, the system is rather down on Chad Patrick, who had a 117 ERA+ in about 120 innings last season and looked great in the postseason; ZiPS projects him to be below league average, and in fact thinks Coleman Crow \u2014 who has never pitched in the big leagues but looked great at Double-A Biloxi last year \u2014 would have a better season if given the chance.<\/p>\n

Otherwise, these seem reasonable. It\u2019s hard to know what sort of innings Brandon Woodruff will give you: he should start spring training healthy for the first time in three years, but he hasn\u2019t pitched the modest number of innings that he\u2019s projected for here since 2022. Misiorowski\u2019s projection is actually somewhat rosy: while it\u2019s easy to remember the highs of his 2025 season and we are all understandably optimistic about his future, he did finish with a 4.36 ERA (95 ERA+) last season.<\/p>\n

Abner Uribe: 67 1\/3 IP, 134 ERA+, 1.1 WAR
Aaron Ashby: 82 IP, 105 ERA+, 0.9 WAR
Jared Koenig: 72 IP, 114 ERA+, 0.9 WAR
Trevor Megill: 46 IP, 132 ERA+, 0.9 WAR
DL Hall: 62 2\/3 IP, 99 ERA+, 0.6 WAR
Sammy Peralta: 73 1\/3 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.6 WAR
Easton McGee: 62 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.5 WAR
Rob Zastryzny: 38 2\/3 IP, 99 ERA+, 0.2 WAR
Grant Anderson: 63 1\/3 IP, 100 ERA+, 0.1 WAR
Craig Yoho: 53 1\/3 IP, 102 ERA+, 0.1 WAR
Angel Zerpa (listed with Royals): 66 2\/3 IP, 106 ERA+, 0.6 WAR<\/p>\n

Like last year, it is a near-certainty that the Brewers have several players who vastly outperform these projections. Uribe and Megill are getting slightly more respect after last year\u2019s good seasons; Ashby is not, though it seems like ZiPS is still projecting him to do at least some work as a starter. What seems more likely is that he pitches out of the bullpen full-time and pitches way, way better than this projection.<\/p>\n

Predicting relievers is hard, though. Joel Payamps fell off a cliff last season. Bryan Hudson came out of nowhere the season before. Who would\u2019ve expected Grant Anderson to be as effective as he was in as many innings as he threw last season? There will surely be some surprises here.<\/p>\n

Szymborski himself notes in his introduction to the Brewers that they\u2019re a difficult team to project, but he says this is because of depth more than anything else: that the Brewers of the past few seasons have gotten production from more players than other teams, not necessarily more production from the players who you already know.<\/p>\n

In that respect, it makes some sense. The Brewers\u2019 front office seems uniquely prepared for the challenges that present themselves throughout a season; whereas another team might need to ride out an underperforming player or may not have a good answer when a player gets injured, the Brewers tend to pull something out of a hat at every turn. So it\u2019s not that we expect Milwaukee to produce an MVP or true Cy Young candidate next season (though a big year from Contreras or a major breakout from Chourio or Misiorowski could surprise us), it\u2019s that we should expect that they \u2014 as they have done in recent team history \u2014 will have answers when not everything goes according to plan.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Dan Szymborski\u2019s ZiPS projections for 2026 have been up at FanGraphs for about a month, so let\u2019s check…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":502662,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2401],"tags":[5,136,843,59,38822,4906,4280,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-502661","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-milwaukee-brewers","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-brewers","10":"tag-milwaukee","11":"tag-milwaukee-brewers","12":"tag-milwaukee-brewers-commentary-and-analysis","13":"tag-milwaukee-brewers-roster","14":"tag-milwaukeebrewers","15":"tag-mlb"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115825697404278048","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502661","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=502661"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502661\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/502662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=502661"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=502661"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=502661"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}