We\u2019re deep in the heart of the off-season, the Hot Stove has grown cold, and some Detroit Tiger fans\u2019 patience with the front office has worn paper-thin. But that doesn\u2019t mean we can\u2019t do some prognosticating, projecting, estimating and elucidating.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m not a betting man \u2013 \u201cOnly ever bet the amount of money you\u2019d be comfortable setting on fire,\u201d I like to say \u2013 but I do enjoy a good over\/under. Set a number, ask other people if they think the actual number will be over that or under that, and let the wild guesses fly. If you\u2019re unfamiliar with all of this, you have to set the over\/under for integer values at something-point-five, to ensure that people guess either over or under that value (but not exactly on that value).<\/p>\n
It\u2019s up to you to guess whether the Tigers\u2019 front office will make any big moves this offseason, during Spring Training, or at the trade deadline, which will affect the final values (and therefore your guesses). If you need to expand on your value then be my guest: it\u2019s the internet, you\u2019re not paying by the word like in an old-timey telegram or something.<\/p>\n
In the comments, feel free to give your own predictions of \u201cover\u201d or \u201cunder\u201d for each category, and if you like, an explanation. Maybe I\u2019ll even remember to revisit this article after the 2026 season to see how right (or hilariously wrong) we all were. I won\u2019t even begin to pretend that these are all important stats; one of them is pretty close to meaningless, frankly, but I thought I\u2019d throw it in there just for squeaks and giggles.<\/p>\n
1. Tarik Skubal strikeouts: 232.5 (last year: 241)<\/p>\n
In 2025, Skubal had a nutty 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and he threw 195 1\/3 innings. I feel like he\u2019ll probably pitch a similar number of innings, but will probably strike out a touch fewer. Besides, as Crash Davis in Bull Durham noted, strikeouts are fascist and ground balls are more democractic; who wouldn\u2019t want more democracy on the ol\u2019 ball diamond?<\/p>\n
2. Team home runs: 188.5 (last year: 198)<\/p>\n
I love ya, Riley Greene, but I don\u2019t think you have 36 home runs in you again. I think Spencer Torkelson could probably match the 31 he had in 2025, and Kerry Carpenter is probably good for 25. Dillon Dingler\u2019s probably good for another 15, and a healthy Parker Meadows could probably give you at least ten. But I don\u2019t think Javier B\u00e1ez, Zach McKinstry and Wenceel P\u00e9rez are that likely to club a dozen each. Is there a Bregman in our future? Maaaaayyyybe?<\/p>\n
3. Riley Greene home runs: 24.5 (last year: 36)<\/p>\n
Speaking of Greene, I don\u2019t think he\u2019s going to hit 36 home runs in 2026, not even close. I think he\u2019ll probably stay healthy if he\u2019s in left and not centre, and if he hit 25 home runs but upped his doubles to 40 or even 45, I\u2019d be a very happy guy. He just needs to cut down on those strikeouts, and if he sacrifices a dozen home runs to improve that? Again, happy guy.<\/p>\n
4. Reese Olson innings pitched: 100.0 (last year: 68.2)<\/p>\n
This one may have the most bearing on how the starting rotation performs in 2026. Olson managed just 112.1 innings in 2024, and far less in 2025. Regular shoulder trouble is not a good sign. Reese should be the Tigers second best starter by a decent margin, but if he can\u2019t stay on the mound the rotation depth is going to be sorely tested again. If he figures it out via offseason and in-season conditioning? The Tigers are going to like the way they look.<\/p>\n
5. Total sacrifice bunts: 5.5 (last year: 5)<\/p>\n
AJ Hinch hates the sacrifice bunt, and in 2025 the Tigers averaged less than one per month. The team put ten balls in play as bunts in 2025, and half of those went down as successful sacrifices; out of the other five, two ended up as successful base hits. (Personally, I\u2019d like to see guys like Meadows try to bunt for a base hitt more often, especially during a slump.) I don\u2019t think Hinch is suddenly going to love the sacrifice bunt, but it definitely has its place if used properly and sparingly.<\/p>\n
6. Date of Kevin McGonigle\u2019s Tigers debut: July 30<\/p>\n
Alright, this isn\u2019t really a statistic like the others, per se, but I wanted to throw this in there just to see what people thought. I picked this day because it\u2019s an off-day, so you really do need to pick a day before or after this.<\/p>\n
7. Team wins: 88.5 (last year: 87)<\/p>\n
We can talk about all kinds of statistics, pitch shapes, bat speed, defensive positioning… but in the end it all comes down to whether the team can win or not. More wins means more success; it doesn\u2019t get simpler than that. I feel like the Tigers will add a little, subtract a little, and perform about the same as they did in 2025, but perhaps without the wild extremes, particularly that weird late-September collapse that cost them a division title.<\/p>\n
So, put your guessing-caps on, polish up that slide-rule, and let us have your best predictions. Or if you can think of a better statistic, and frankly you probably can, let us know that one too.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"We\u2019re deep in the heart of the off-season, the Hot Stove has grown cold, and some Detroit Tiger…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":502732,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2386],"tags":[5,147,53,51959,2583,4,594],"class_list":{"0":"post-502731","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-detroit-tigers","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-detroit","10":"tag-detroit-tigers","11":"tag-detroit-tigers-opinions","12":"tag-detroittigers","13":"tag-mlb","14":"tag-tigers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115825917802084355","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502731","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=502731"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/502731\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/502732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=502731"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=502731"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=502731"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}