Much ink has been spilled over the last three seasons trying to diagnose and correct the errors that have led to the Cardinals unceremonious tumble from the top of the National League Central division. While I can see the arguments for poor player development, lack of ownership spending, or the inability to keep and trade the right players, the real answer may be simpler than that. After years of benefiting from the whims of the baseball Gods, the Cardinals finally ran out of Devil Magic. Perhaps the magic was stolen by the motley Brew Crew to the North. Perhaps it was taken as a debt owed for David Freese and Pete Kozma. I do not know why it is gone, but I know that it must be returned to its rightful place to restore the cosmic balance that lingers over the baseball universe. This balance cannot be restored by building the best farm system in baseball or giving out multi-hundred-million-dollar contracts to top free agents. I certainly hope the Cardinals do both of these, but the Devil Magic can only be returned when an unheralded prospect or castoff banished from another organization takes on a leading role in bringing glory back to the hallowed halls of Busch Stadium. Jos\u00e9 Ferm\u00edn may not be the hero we asked for, but he is the one we need.<\/p>\n
Before we get into the fun stuff, a quick aside on the current roster construction. For Ferm\u00edn to make good on his Devil Magic promise, there will need to be an opportunity. This, more than salary relief, is why trading Nolan Arenado is so necessary. It doesn\u2019t really help the long-term trajectory of the Cardinals if Arenado were to have a bounce-back season. But if Jose Ferm\u00edn, Thomas Saggase, or some other \u201cdepth piece\u201d can rip off a 3+ WAR season, suddenly the Cardinals have another huge asset to deploy. If the season started today, the Cardinals would be returning 88% of the total team plate appearances from 2025, having only divested of 700 plate appearances so far. Putting the Walker and Gorman question to the side, the Cardinals have three rookie-eligible players with legitimate starter upside ready for the chance at the major league level in JJ Wetherholt, Jimmy Crooks, and Nathan Church. You hope to get more playing time out of Ivan Herrera and Masyn Winn next year as well.<\/p>\n
Now, back to Ferm\u00edn\u2026 The former Cleveland castoff has put together a 141 wRC+ over parts of three Memphis seasons. Many people, myself included, wrote him off after his horrendous cup of coffee in 2024 that led to a -0.7 WAR in just 79 plate appearances. Ferm\u00edn flipped the narrative in 2025 with his excellent 70 plate appearance cameo, finishing with a 129 wRC+.<\/p>\n
Ferm\u00edn has two specific skills that jump out; his ability to make contact and his ability to lay off pitches outside the zone. These two skills are plus to elite, so why hasn\u2019t he already gotten a real shot? His swing speed and exit velocity metrics are easily in the bottom 10-20% of big leaguers. For hitters like Ferm\u00edn, who will never win on raw power, the question is whether elite swing decisions plus optimized contact shape can produce real offensive ceilings.<\/p>\n
Focusing on these three attributes, I set out to find similar players to Ferm\u00edn and see what else they do to be successful. Looking first at contact rate, Ferm\u00edn has run an in-zone contact rate of 93% with Triple-A contact data supporting this level. This is well above the league average 85.4%. Ferm\u00edn has swung at only 19.2% of pitches out-of-zone in his MLB plate appearances, slightly better than his Triple-A rate, so there might be a little regression there. The MLB average is 28.1%. Finally, Ferm\u00edn\u2019s 90th percentile exit velocity of 100.8 MPH is well below the league average of 105.1 MPH.<\/p>\n
Using these three metrics as a starting point, we can start to dig into potential comps for Ferm\u00edn. The pool of players with a 90%+ contact rate, an out-of-zone swing % below 24% and a 90th percentile exit velocity below 103 MPH in 2025 is:<\/p>\n
I left the parameters wide to illustrate what this skillset looks like with players who have a bit more power (Bregman, Cronenworth, Gasper), better contact and even less power (Kwan), and lack the ability to get the ball off the ground (Meidroth and Young). While the context is helpful, these players aren\u2019t really perfect Ferm\u00edn comps, so we are left with:<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/platform.vivaelbirdos.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/176\/2026\/01\/Screenshot-2026-01-02-162610.png?quality=90&strip=all&crop=0,0,100,100\")
<\/a><\/p>\n