{"id":504989,"date":"2026-01-04T08:05:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T08:05:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/504989\/"},"modified":"2026-01-04T08:05:13","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T08:05:13","slug":"prediction-model-is-very-high-on-surprise-guardians-outfielder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/504989\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Model Is Very High on Surprise Guardians Outfielder"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Cleveland Guardians have been seeking more offensive production from their outfield for years. That could come in 2026, but not from an outfielder that\u2019s on everyone\u2019s radar.<\/p>\n

FanGraph\u2019s famous ZiPS prediction model<\/a> is incredibly high on Johnathan Rodriguez\u2019s ability to impact Cleveland\u2019s lineup next season.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

The projection model is predicting the slugger to finish the 2026 season with an OPS+ of 104 while slashing .253\/.322\/.416, which would include 19 doubles and 17 home runs. There\u2019s a catch to these numbers, though. ZiPS still foresees Rodriguez struggling with his swing-and-miss tendencies and predicts he will finish the year with 143 strikeouts, too.<\/p>\n

FanGraphs sees much of Rodriguez\u2019s production coming against left-handed pitching, with a projected .337 OBP and a .464 SLG against southpaws.<\/p>\n

\"Sep<\/p>\n

Sep 27, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians right fielder Johnathan Rodriguez (30) hits a home run against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

If Rodriguez actually does finish 2026 with numbers even remotely similar to this, the Guardians would be ecstatic with his production at the plate, even if he can be a defensive liability at times.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

Cleveland desperately needs some more pop in its lineup, especially against left-handers, and ZiPS believes that Rodriguez could be the player to help with that.<\/p>\n

The issue is that these numbers don\u2019t necessarily line up with what we\u2019ve seen from Rodriguez through the first two years of his big-league career. In J-Rod\u2019s 177 MLB plate appearances, the slugger has a wRC+ of 82 and a strikeout rate of 30.8 percent, so it\u2019s understandable to be a little doubtful with ZiPS\u2019 predictions.<\/p>\n

That said, Rodriguez did come up clutch for the Guardians down the stretch in 2025, collecting four RBI in the final two games of the regular season to help Cleveland punch its ticket to the postseason and win the American League Central.<\/p>\n

One thing is for sure, and that\u2019s that the Guardians will be looking for help in the outfield anywhere they can in 2025 and still need help against left-handed pitching, too. Considering Rodriguez is one of just four pure right-handed hitters on the 40-man roster, he could make the Opening Day roster with a strong spring training for this reason alone.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

Still, even though ZiPS is high on Rodriguez, this is definitely more of a need-to-see-to-believe type of forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Cleveland Guardians have been seeking more offensive production from their outfield for years. That could come in…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":504990,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2380],"tags":[5,135,51,2565,538,21472,4,25624,1643,62579],"class_list":["post-504989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-cleveland-guardians","tag-baseball","tag-cleveland","tag-cleveland-guardians","tag-clevelandguardians","tag-guardians","tag-johnathan-rodriguez","tag-mlb","tag-offensive-production","tag-rodriguez","tag-zips"],"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115835799433794593","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504989","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=504989"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/504989\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/504990"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=504989"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=504989"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=504989"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}