{"id":505103,"date":"2026-01-04T13:25:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-04T13:25:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/505103\/"},"modified":"2026-01-04T13:25:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-04T13:25:11","slug":"minnesotas-three-unluckiest-hitters-in-2025-twins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/505103\/","title":{"rendered":"Minnesota\u2019s Three Unluckiest Hitters in 2025 – Twins"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tThe 2025 season was another frustrating chapter for the Minnesota Twins. After another disappointing finish, a brief poll of fans might include nearly everyone on the roster when asked who underachieved at the plate. Royce Lewis<\/a> struggled to stay on the field. Matt Wallner<\/a> could not recapture his earlier impact. A slew of other players fell short of expectations as well. Still, when digging into the underlying data, the totals for three hitters are hard to ignore because the gap between results and the quality of contact tells a very different story.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tLeague-wide context helps frame the discussion. MLB average wOBA in 2025 sat at .313, while average xwOBA checked in at .315. For those unfamiliar, wOBA is a catch-all metric that values the quality of contact along with strikeouts and walks. At the same time, xwOBA uses Statcast inputs like exit velocity and launch angle to estimate what should have happened. When a hitter shows a significant positive gap between xwOBA and wOBA, it often points toward bad luck rather than a broken approach.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tEdouard Julien<\/a>
Julien posted a .286 wOBA compared to a .330 xwOBA, creating a massive +.044 difference. The most glaring issue came against offspeed pitches, where he showed a 165-point gap between actual and expected production. His .208 slugging percentage versus a .471 expected slugging against those offerings underscores just how much damage failed to show up in the box score. Julien continued to hit the ball hard with a 12.2 Barrel percentage and a 39.0 LA-Sweet Spot rate, both strong indicators of sustainable offense.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tLooking ahead to 2026, Julien\u2019s elite plate discipline remains his calling card. He chased just 19.8 percent of pitches, which should continue to put him in favorable counts. If he can get back to punishing fastballs the way he did during his rookie season, the production should rebound. With no minor league options remaining, Julien will need to prove he can provide consistent value to the big league roster. Since he doesn\u2019t have a defensive home, his production must come at the plate.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tKody Clemens<\/a>
Clemens finished 2025 with a .307 wOBA and a .331 xwOBA, a +.024 gap that hints at some missed opportunities. The Twins gave him extended playing time for the first time in his career and largely liked what they saw. Clemens made solid contact with a 12.0 Barrel percentage and a 35.9 Sweet-Spot rate. Fastballs were the pitch type whose results lagged most behind expectations, with a 32-point difference. He saw heaters more than 58 percent of the time, so doing more damage there could quickly lift his overall line.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe outlook for 2026 is more complicated. Minnesota discussed using Clemens as the regular first baseman before signing Josh Bell<\/a>. Clemens is the better defender at the position, so there is still a path for both players to share the lineup, with Bell sliding to designated hitter. His theoretical defensive versatility will get him playing time, and he was one of the team\u2019s clubhouse leaders in the second half. With a 96 OPS+, Clemens already profiles as close to a league-average bat. Closing the gap between actual and expected numbers could push him firmly into that tier.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tJames Outman<\/a>
Outman\u2019s surface numbers were rough, highlighted by a .237 wOBA and a .267 xwOBA for a +.030 difference. He arrived at the trade deadline in the deal that sent Brock Stewart<\/a> away, and most of his big league plate appearances in 2025 came with Minnesota. Outside of his excellent 16.9 Barrel percentage, many of his Statcast metrics lagged behind league norms. That makes his minor league track record impossible to ignore. At Triple-A last season, Outman posted a .945 OPS with a 131 wRC+, showing a hitter who still knows how to punish mistakes.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tFor 2026, roster status looms large. Outman is out of minor league options, meaning the Twins must either find him a role or risk losing him. His ability to cover all three outfield spots makes him a natural fit as the team\u2019s fourth outfielder. If even a portion of his Triple-A production carries over, the Twins could uncover sneaky value.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tUnderachievement defined much of the Twins offense in 2025, but Julien, Clemens, and Outman stand out because the data suggests they deserved better outcomes. Expected metrics are not guarantees, yet they often serve as early indicators of rebound potential. If luck swings back toward the mean in 2026, this trio could quietly reshape the lineup.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhich of these hitters do you believe is most likely to bounce back next season, or is there another Twin you would add to this list? Let us know your thoughts in the comments. And stop by later today to see who the Twins’ three luckiest hitters were.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The 2025 season was another frustrating chapter for the Minnesota Twins. After another disappointing finish, a brief poll…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":505104,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2388],"tags":[5,2080,4571,461,822,60,3190,4,148],"class_list":{"0":"post-505103","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-minnesota-twins","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-edouard-julien","10":"tag-james-outman","11":"tag-kody-clemens","12":"tag-minnesota","13":"tag-minnesota-twins","14":"tag-minnesotatwins","15":"tag-mlb","16":"tag-twins"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115837057345154785","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/505103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=505103"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/505103\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/505104"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=505103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=505103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=505103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}