{"id":516911,"date":"2026-01-12T16:55:11","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T16:55:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/516911\/"},"modified":"2026-01-12T16:55:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T16:55:11","slug":"are-the-cubs-the-runaway-nl-central-favorite-after-signing-alex-bregman-plus-an-in-season-tournament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/516911\/","title":{"rendered":"Are the Cubs the runaway NL Central favorite after signing Alex Bregman? Plus: An in-season tournament?!"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Windup Newsletter \u26be | This is The Athletic\u2019s MLB<\/a> newsletter. Sign up here<\/a> to receive The Windup directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis time, the Cubs cannot get cute.\u201d \u201cSo, about that lineup \u2026\u201d Well, the Cubs answered in a definitive way: They signed Alex Bregman (and the Red Sox did not). Does this make Chicago contenders? Plus: Tarik Skubal\u2019s unprecedented arbitration case, and is baseball angling for an in-season tournament? I\u2019m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal \u2014 welcome to The Windup!<\/p>\n

Big Swing: Bregman to the Cubs<\/p>\n

We all knew it was time for the Cubs to address the lineup. On Saturday night, they\u00a0corrected last year\u2019s mistake<\/a>, signing third baseman Alex Bregman to a\u00a0five-year deal worth $175 million<\/a>\u00a0(an AAV of $35 million).<\/p>\n

It has me wondering: Are these last two moves \u2014 Bregman and Edward Cabrera \u2014 enough to make the Cubs the runaway NL Central favorite? Or is this a set-up for the fourth consecutive installation of everyone\u2019s favorite game, \u201cJust Kidding: It\u2019s The Brewers Again!\u201d<\/p>\n

I did a little thought exercise. Going position by position, I plugged in the new guys, comparing them to who they\u2019ll be replacing from last year\u2019s squad:<\/p>\n

3B:\u00a0Matt Shaw (3.1 bWAR) \u2014> Alex Bregman (3.5 bWAR)
\nSP:\u00a0Michael Soroka (-0.1) \u2014> Edward Cabrera (2.8)
\nRP:\u00a0Drew Pomeranz (0.9) \u2014> Jacob Webb (0.3)
\nRP:\u00a0Brad Keller (1.4) \u2014> Phil Maton (1.3)
\nRP:\u00a0Taylor Rogers (0.4) \u2014> Hoby Milner (-0.6)
\nRP:\u00a0Andrew Kittredge (0.6) \u2014> Hunter Harvey (0.7)
\nBackup 1B\/UTIL:\u00a0Justin Turner (-0.1) \u2014> Tyler Austin (estimated 0.6)<\/p>\n

There are many flaws with this, of course \u2014\u00a0bWAR isn\u2019t the best stat for evaluating relievers, and park factors should count for\u00a0something. Also we\u2019re just sorta best-guesstimating a bWAR for Tyler Austin, since he spent the last five years playing in Japan. So take it all with a fist-sized grain of salt.<\/p>\n

But for an estimate: This puts them at +1.8 bWAR.\u00a0Not bad?<\/p>\n

My biggest flaw is that it\u2019s not really Shaw-for-Bregman straight up, is it? Shaw is still on the roster. You know who isn\u2019t? Kyle Tucker (4.6 bWAR in 2025). Swap him in for Shaw on this list, and the Cubs are suddenly at a net +0.3 bWAR.<\/p>\n

But hey, you could also argue that\u00a0Cabrera\u2019s arrival replaces\u00a0two\u00a0pitchers<\/a>. Soroka was likely to be gone anyway, so\u00a0adding Cabrera to the rotation also pushes Colin Rea back into rotation depth.<\/p>\n

By spring, there will be loads of more well-rounded projections, factoring in things like: How will Justin Steele look when he returns from UCL surgery? Will Mois\u00e9s Ballesteros and Kevin Alc\u00e1ntara be major contributors? Will\u00a0\u201cClark the Cub\u201d ever fully recover<\/a>?<\/p>\n

But projections aren\u2019t likely to account for Bregman\u2019s much-lauded<\/a>\u00a0intangibles<\/a>. Nor will they factor in the Midas-like witch\u2019s curse that rewards every\u00a0Brewers trade of yet another star<\/a>\u00a0with more division championships.<\/p>\n

I have no idea if the Cubs will be great. But they\u2019re better than they were last week. Now:\u00a0hold on to Nico Hoerner<\/a>?<\/p>\n

Ken\u2019s Notebook: Breaking down the Skubal-Tigers rift<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s Ken Rosenthal, from\u00a0his latest column<\/a>:<\/p>\n

The most fascinating thing about the Tarik Skubal arbitration case is that both sides think the other is trying to break established norms.<\/p>\n

Skubal\u2019s team, the Tigers, believes his ask for $32 million is far beyond what the system historically has dictated. Skubal and his agent, Scott Boras, believe the Tigers\u2019 $19 million filing number does not account for two rarely cited provisions in the CBA<\/a>\u00a0that set him apart.<\/p>\n

By meeting both provisions \u2014 the first as a player with special accomplishments, the second as one with five or more years of service \u2014 Skubal need not compare himself only to pitchers in his class. He is permitted to argue the relevance of all players\u2019 salaries, including those who negotiated lucrative contracts in free agency.<\/p>\n

The expected hearing in February will take place against the backdrop of Skubal\u2019s uncertain future in Detroit. The Tigers, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, spent the offseason upgrading their roster. But they also left the door open for trading Skubal, arguably the best pitcher in the game. And now that they\u2019re picking a fight with him in arbitration,\u00a0it seems more unlikely than ever they will make an aggressive bid to retain him in free agency.<\/p>\n

The three independent arbitrators MLB and the Players Association jointly select to decide cases are notoriously unpredictable, making Skubal\u2019s outcome anyone\u2019s guess. But Skubal is the perfect player to test the boundaries of the system. If he remains healthy and effective in 2026, his final season of club control, he might receive $400 million in free agency. So if the panel awards him $19 million instead of $32 million \u2014 a big raise from his $10.15 million salary last season instead of a massive one \u2014 he will not exactly suffer.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s certainly fair to question the Tigers for not filing a higher number, but portraying this battle as one between team and player would be an oversimplification. MLB\u2019s Labor Relations Department recommends salaries for teams to offer players in arbitration. The PA advises player agents on how to best represent clients. In some ways, the Skubal case is but a preliminary to the main event \u2014 the heavyweight bout looming between the league and union in collective-bargaining negotiations.<\/p>\n

More:\u00a0A Tigers-Tarik Skubal arbitration hearing would be fascinating theater. Cody Stavenhagen\u00a0tells us why<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Replacement Recs: Where does Boston go from here?<\/p>\n

Bregman was No. 3 on our\u00a0Free Agent Big Board<\/a>. How do the Red Sox replace a guy like that?<\/p>\n

Well, they don\u2019t. Not from a clubhouse\/leadership standpoint. But there\u2019s still a way to improve their lineup:\u00a0sign the No. 2 guy on that list<\/a>. Bo Bichette is not only four years younger than Bregman, he\u2019s also a better hitter. Let\u2019s compare last year\u2019s stats:<\/p>\n

Bregman vs. Bichette<\/p>\n

PLAYERAVERAGEOPSHRbWARfWAR<\/p>\n

Alex Bregman<\/p>\n

.273<\/p>\n

.821<\/p>\n

18<\/p>\n

3.5<\/p>\n

3.5<\/p>\n

Bo Bichette<\/p>\n

.311<\/p>\n

.840<\/p>\n

18<\/p>\n

3.5<\/p>\n

3.8<\/p>\n

Other than bWAR, this chart does not take into account Bregman\u2019s Gold Glove defense at third base, or the fact that Bichette would have to adjust to a new position at second base (assuming Trevor Story stays healthy, which \u2026 \ud83e\udd1e). But he would be a big boost to the lineup.<\/p>\n

The thing is, Boston is not the only potential suitor for Bichette. He\u2019s\u00a0meeting with the Phillies today<\/a>, and a Toronto restaurant\u00a0offered him free steak for life<\/a>\u00a0to stay put.<\/p>\n

Jen McCaffrey has more on the mindset that led Boston to let Bregman walk (and the idea that Bichette should be the next primary target)\u00a0here<\/a>. She also notes that if he goes elsewhere, there are other options (including Eugenio Su\u00e1rez and Isaac Paredes) for Boston.<\/p>\n

Hmm \u2026 Could we see an MLB in-season tournament?<\/p>\n

Rob Manfred, during his time as commissioner, has overseen a lot of changes, many of them rules-based: the shift ban, the pitch clock and \u2014 coming soon to a ballpark near you \u2014 the Automated Ball-Strike System.<\/p>\n

Manfred\u00a0spoke this week to WFAN<\/a>, and had a lot to say about other changes he\u2019s considering before retiring (which he insists he is\u00a0definitely\u00a0doing) in January 2029.<\/p>\n

The first, which has been talked about for much of Manfred\u2019s tenure, was expansion and realignment. Nothing really new there, except he said he would prefer to keep the two-team cities in different divisions.<\/p>\n

Next: a\u00a0free-agency deadline<\/a>. His assertion is that it would attract more attention to the sport during the offseason. The MLBPA vehemently disagrees, saying it would lead to contract suppression.<\/p>\n

But the topic I found the most \u2026 let\u2019s say, \u201cintriguing\u201d \u2026 was the idea of a split season and\/or a in-season tournament, like the NBA Cup.<\/p>\n

As someone who has been on board with all the other changes I mentioned above, I feel qualified to say: I hate it. Not for any special or creative reasons, either. Just for the same ones others are bringing up:\u00a0It could lead to a reduction of regular-season games, or it could push the World Series into Thanksgiving territory.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There are, of course, reasons to argue in favor of it: There\u2019s the money. There\u2019s also the cash, the moolah, the profits, the increased revenue and let\u2019s not forget: the dough.<\/p>\n

(Cupping hands to mouth) Boooooooooooooo \u2026<\/p>\n

But hey, maybe you disagree. Chad Jennings, Andy McCullough and Sam Blum tell us about the pros and cons \u2014\u00a0and why baseball is different from basketball \u2014\u00a0here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Handshakes and High Fives<\/p>\n

All nine teams remaining on Main Street Sports\/FanDuel network (formerly Diamond\/Bally Sports) have cancelled their contracts. Evan Drellich gives us the teams\u2019\u00a0remaining list of options<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It looks like we can put this one to rest: The Diamondbacks are\u00a0not planning on trading<\/a>\u00a0Ketel Marte.<\/p>\n

In a little over a week, we\u2019ll know who\u2019s joining Jeff Kent in the Hall of Fame Class of 2026. Tyler Kepner says Chase Utley\u2019s arc is an indication of\u00a0an evolution in voting<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Most-clicked in our last newsletter: The Last Dive Bar getting ahead of the\u00a0Oakland\u00a0Sacramento\u00a0Las Vegas\u00a0Athletics on\u00a0selling trademarked merch<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love The Windup? Check out\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Windup Newsletter \u26be | This is The Athletic\u2019s MLB newsletter. Sign up here to receive The Windup…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":516912,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2399],"tags":[5,138,24,4245,161,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-516911","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chicago-cubs","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-chicago","10":"tag-chicago-cubs","11":"tag-chicagocubs","12":"tag-cubs","13":"tag-mlb"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115883181704038229","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=516911"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/516911\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/516912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=516911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=516911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=516911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}