{"id":524420,"date":"2026-01-17T01:47:18","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T01:47:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/524420\/"},"modified":"2026-01-17T01:47:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T01:47:18","slug":"mlb-draft-2023-analysis-of-every-first-round-pick-from-keith-law","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/524420\/","title":{"rendered":"MLB Draft 2023: Analysis of every first-round pick from Keith Law"},"content":{"rendered":"

While the order was a little jumbled on the first day of the MLB Draft<\/a>, things were pretty much chalk all day. The top five players went in the top five. Only one player in my top 35 went undrafted, Roch Cholowsky<\/a>, almost certainly for signability reasons, and the rest all went in the top 50. Sixty of the 70 players selected were in my top 100<\/a>. There was just a lot more consensus this year around who the best players were, and a big reason for that is how strong the college position player class was.<\/p>\n

Some Day 1 observations from a fun 2023 draft<\/a> so far\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2022 I believe this marks the first time in MLB draft<\/a> history that we had no left-handed pitchers taken in the first round. The college lefty crop was not strong, and only two college southpaws went at all on Day 1 (Joe Whitman<\/a> and Sean Sullivan<\/a>). The high school crop was better, but the industry has gotten much smarter in the last few years, and you just see fewer high school pitchers taken in the first round.<\/p>\n

\"go-deeper\"\/<\/p>\n

GO DEEPER<\/p>\n

Law: Scouting the top prospects I saw at the Arizona Fall League<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2022 The Reds<\/a> really had a hell of a day for themselves, landing two of the best college right-handers in the draft<\/a>\u00a0(Rhett Lowder and Ty Floyd<\/a>) and then grabbing a high school shortstop who was at least in consideration for a lot of teams in the 20s (Sammy Stafura<\/a>), someone I considered a first-round talent, for whatever that might be worth.<\/p>\n

\u2022 The Mariners<\/a> also went for it in a huge way, going after three high-ceiling prep position players (Colt Emerson<\/a>, Jonny Farmelo<\/a>, Tai Peete<\/a>) with their first three picks before coming back with a college senior (Ben Williamson<\/a>) to save money in the second round.<\/p>\n

\u2022 I love Boston<\/a>\u2019s two picks \u2013 a safe college position player who has some ceiling because of the bat (Kyle Teel<\/a>), and then one of the most electric, high-upside high school position players (Nazzan Zanetello<\/a>).<\/p>\n

\u2022 The Dodgers<\/a>\u2019 picks mystified me, and I say that knowing full well that they have been one of the best drafting teams in baseball for a long time. I\u2019m fine with Jake Gelof<\/a> in the second round, but there\u2019s more risk to him than is typical for a college bat because he has such an issue with high fastballs. To take him after taking a high school hitter with no power (Kendall George<\/a>) with their first pick makes for a strange Day 1 combo.<\/p>\n

\u2022 You laughed when the Mets<\/a> took Brandon Sproat<\/a>, right? I laughed. It\u2019s funny. Maybe this time he\u2019ll sign.<\/p>\n

1. Pittsburgh Pirates<\/a>: Paul Skenes<\/a>, RHP, LSU<\/p>\n

No. 3 on Keith Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Pirates take the one pitcher who had a credible argument to go first \u2014 or even top 5 \u2014 and choose the relative risk of an arm over any of the possible position players, including Skenes\u2019s own teammate Dylan Crews<\/a>. Skenes has top-of-the-rotation upside, with a fastball that holds upper 90s deep into starts and a plus slider. He\u2019s huge and already built like a workhorse MLB<\/a> starter. He does have to work on a third pitch and on his fastball command, but he\u2019s probably already developed enough to go to Double A to start next year. I doubt we\u2019ll see him pitch anywhere in 2023 except maybe in the Arizona Fall League.<\/p>\n

Scouting report: Skenes is the hardest-throwing amateur starter I\u2019ve ever seen, even beating out Hunter Greene<\/a> and Gerrit Cole<\/a>; when I saw Skenes pitch at the Box this April, he hit 100 or 101 seven times in the first inning and didn\u2019t throw a fastball under 96. After transferring from the Air Force Academy, where he sat 92-95 mph as a sophomore with a 55 slider, the 6-foot-6, 250-pound right-hander has averaged about 98 mph this year with an easy plus slider, helping him strike out just over 50 percent of batters he\u2019s faced; coming out of the regular season he had 164 strikeouts, 40 more than any other pitcher in Division I. His delivery is fairly compact for a big guy and he has at least above-average control, with the potential for more. He hides the ball extremely well behind his body, so the two pitches he throws should continue to play well even against better hitters, but I did see some guys cheat a little on the fastball because he barely uses a changeup. Other than the development of that third pitch, I don\u2019t see much that can hold him back beyond the injury risk of any hard-throwing pitcher. If you\u2019re going into the draft hoping you can find a Justin Verlander<\/a> type, he\u2019s your guy.<\/p>\n

For the first time ever, two players from the same school have been drafted No. 1 and No. 2 in the #MLBDraft<\/a>.<\/p>\n

LSU’s Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews make history.@LSUbaseball<\/a> | @LSU<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/k2zWFy1w3I<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 The Athletic (@TheAthletic) July 9, 2023<\/a><\/p>\n

2. Washington Nationals<\/a>: Dylan Crews, OF, LSU<\/p>\n

No. 1 in Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

It\u2019s funny because the word all spring was that the Nats\u2019 preference was to get Skenes at No. 2, but instead they have to settle for \u2026 the No. 1 player on my board, at least, if not theirs, in Crews. This year\u2019s Golden Spikes winner capped off a remarkable career at LSU where he hit .349 or better in every season and never had an OBP below .450 or slugging percentage below .660. He also played well enough in center field this year that the consensus is that he\u2019ll stay there in pro ball, which wasn\u2019t the belief when he was already a star as a hitter in high school back in 2019. Crews is such an advanced hitter that he should go to High A to finish out this summer so he can just jump right to Double A to start 2024, with an eye toward getting him to the majors by the summer. I know this isn\u2019t exactly how the Nationals hoped it would play out, but I think they got the best player.<\/p>\n

Scouting report: Crews was on scouts\u2019 radar as early as his junior year of high school, when his ability to hit and potential for power and to perhaps stay in center marked him as a likely first-round pick when he graduated in 2020. He started that spring poorly, swinging and missing more than expected. After the pandemic, he decided to withdraw from the draft and go to LSU. As much as I dislike seeing kids forego a chance for an MLB team to offer them a ton of cash, Crews\u2019 decision certainly worked out, as he\u2019s the best prospect in this draft class, the most likely player to go 1-1, and going to get a decisively larger signing bonus than he could possibly have gotten three years ago. Crews has performed for three years in Baton Rouge, hitting for average, getting on base, posting solid contact rates and even playing above-average defense in center. He destroyed non-SEC pitching, and while he was worse within the conference, he still led SEC hitters in average and OBP through the end of the regular season, and ranked seventh in slugging, with more walks (27) than strikeouts (22). He\u2019s a 55 runner who\u2019s actually picked up some speed since high school, benefiting from LSU\u2019s strength and conditioning program to get stronger without getting slower, and making himself a viable candidate to stay in center in pro ball, although he might be bumped to a corner by a truly plus defender. Even if he has to go to right field, he\u2019d be a plus defender there, and the bat will play anywhere on the diamond. He\u2019s put up numbers, with the underlying metrics to back it up, in the best conference in college baseball for three years. He should be the first pick, and should be in the majors before the end of 2024.\n<\/p>\n

3. Detroit Tigers<\/a>: Max Clark<\/a>, OF, Franklin (Ind.) Community High<\/p>\n

No. 4 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Tigers pull a mild surprise, taking the high schooler rather than Florida Gators outfielder Wyatt Langford<\/a> \u2014 which is not a criticism of the pick, as Clark would have been a 1-1 candidate in a lot of years and was supposedly still in the Pirates\u2019 mix this weekend. Clark is probably the draft\u2019s closest thing to a five-tool player, a dynamic athlete with surprising power from his six-foot frame and the promise of plus defense in center. He\u2019s also a bit of a social media star who\u2019ll probably be a fan favorite for a long time \u2013 but he\u2019s also further away from the majors than Langford is, probably by two years.<\/p>\n

Scouting report: Clark is an outstanding all-around athlete, a 70 runner with an incredible build and an easy, pretty left-handed swing that looks geared to drive the ball to all fields. He\u2019s got bat speed and hand strength that should translate to plus power or close to it when he reaches his peak, even without the projection to add a ton of muscle between now and then. His speed translates to plus defense in center and he has the arm to play anywhere in the outfield. He\u2019s earned praise from scouts for his competitiveness and his work ethic. My daughter was impressed by his Instagram follower count (more than 309,000). He\u2019s a Vanderbilt commit, but his future is in pro ball, with real superstar upside.\n<\/p>\n

4. Texas Rangers<\/a>: Wyatt Langford, OF, Florida<\/p>\n

No. 2 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Langford was No. 2 on my board, and No. 1 coming into the spring, as he\u2019s a more explosive athlete than Crews with more speed, but doesn\u2019t have Crews\u2019 lengthy track record of performance going back to high school, and doesn\u2019t play center field. He excelled in the SEC for the last two years, however, and has shown he can hit good pitching, enough to think he could move almost as quickly to the big leagues. With Texas now a contender with a core that\u2019s signed for a long time but also not a young roster overall, Langford could reach the big leagues in time to help extend their window of contention.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Langford only hit .250 as a freshman for Florida \u2026 because he went 1-for-4. Since then, he\u2019s hit .373\/. .480\/.762 in 114 games for the Gators, with 42 homers and more walks (80) than strikeouts (78), while playing in, yes, the best conference in college baseball. He\u2019s even outslugged Crews this year within the SEC. In a typical year, he\u2019d be the no-doubt first pick, but this is an atypical year in all the best ways, with five players I think would reasonably be in the discussion for the first overall pick in the majority of draft classes. This year, he\u2019s competing with Crews, who has a longer track record and slightly better performance, especially in getting on base, as well as maybe the hardest-throwing amateur starter ever and two elite high school outfielders. Langford is a 70 runner at full strength \u2014 he missed about two weeks this spring after fouling a ball off his \u2026 well, I don\u2019t think he was wearing protective equipment, and while he didn\u2019t have surgery, he wasn\u2019t running quite as well after the injury. Despite that, however, he plays left for Florida, and hasn\u2019t looked great out there, giving some Derek Fisher vibes (another 70 runner who just wasn\u2019t very good anywhere in the outfield). That defensive question is what really puts him behind Crews for me in the end, even with a slightly higher offensive ceiling, with more power and speed.\n<\/p>\n

5. Minnesota Twins<\/a>: Walker Jenkins<\/a>, OF, South Brunswick High (Southport, N.C.)<\/p>\n

No. 5 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Twins seemed to be much more interested in college hitters, so the pick of Jenkins is a mild surprise, especially since he is likely to require full slot. I know some scouts had him first on their personal pref lists and compare him to a young Larry Walker, seeing an athletic right fielder who has plus range and really, really hits. He has that build and a sweet left-handed swing that should produce hard contact and power. Like Clark, he hit well in showcases but was walked a ton in his senior spring while playing mediocre competition. This also means the top five were, in fact, the top five \u2014 the five players atop my board, and I think everyone\u2019s boards, ended up going in the first five picks. No team decided to cut a deal to take a player outside of that quintet.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Jenkins flew up boards this spring after a modest summer showing when he was hampered by a hamate injury. He looks the part of a top-of-the-draft hitter, 6-3, 205 pounds, lean and athletic and twitchy but with lots of room to add 20-25 pounds. He\u2019s a plus runner, but I wouldn\u2019t be shocked if he slid a little toward above-average as he filled out. He\u2019s a left-handed hitter with a great swing that\u2019s boosted by his outstanding bat control, allowing him to adjust mid-swing more than most teenagers can, and once he fills out he\u2019ll probably have 30-homer power. He\u2019s a center fielder now and a good one, although I could see him losing enough speed to move to right. He looks like he\u2019ll hit like an All-Star right fielder, and maybe the UNC commit will end up staying in center, too.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Jacob Wilson was all smiles before the draft. (Alika Jenner \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

6. Oakland Athletics: Jacob Wilson<\/a>, SS, Grand Canyon<\/p>\n

No. 24 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

This is a reach for me, although I know people who think Wilson is one of the safest big leaguers in this draft class. The son of former Pirates infielder Jack Wilson, Jacob\u2019s a solid defender at shortstop with great instincts and the best contact hitter in this draft or in many drafts. He struck out less often in the last two college seasons (12) than most players do in a month. He also has grade 30 power, with very low exit velocities and a launch angle at or below 0 degrees. He\u2019s not short, so there\u2019s hope he can pack some muscle onto his slender frame to make harder contact, and maybe the A\u2019s can help him adjust his swing path to drive the ball more, but right now he projects as a hitter for a decent average without power and maybe without a great OBP.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Wilson struck out just seven times all of spring 2022, in 275 plate appearances, and this year punched out just five times in 217 plate appearances, finishing with a .412\/.461\/.635 line for the Antelopes and zero strikeouts in his last 100 trips to the plate. The son of former Pirates infielder Jack Wilson, Jacob is also a true shortstop, one of the better defenders in the college class. Despite an anxious approach at the plate \u2013 he never stops moving his hands or his legs \u2013 his hand-eye coordination must be off the charts. He gets all that contact by eschewing any attempt to hit for power, as he slaps the ball into play and will shoot it to the opposite field. He\u2019s got a skinny frame that offers little projection. He doesn\u2019t drive the ball at all or hit it hard, and his launch angle is barely over zero degrees, giving him one of the lowest of any college hitter who might go in the top-50 picks. He\u2019s a fringe-average runner, as well. That\u2019s a long way of saying that it\u2019s a tough profile, albeit one we\u2019ve seen go in the first round \u2013 Nick Madrigal<\/a> and Kevin Newman<\/a> are two recent examples. He is someone who projects to play in the big leagues with very, very high probability, but who may not have the ceiling of a regular.\n<\/p>\n

7. Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder<\/a>, RHP, Wake Forest<\/p>\n

No. 9 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

I\u2019m a big fan of this pick and thought Lowder was the No. 2 pitcher in this draft \u2014 and he certainly has the best hair. Lowder sits mid-90s with an out pitch in his changeup and saw huge improvement in his breaking ball this year, raising his projection from fourth starter to maybe a No. 2. His delivery has some funk to it but it plays, as he\u2019s thrown plenty of strikes and shows great feel for moving the ball around the zone. He could move quickly through the low minors, as those two offspeed pitches might just be too much for A-ball hitters, but I wouldn\u2019t project him to move quite as quickly as Skenes. The Reds continue to do well in the draft \u2013 it\u2019s why they\u2019re in first place right now.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Lowder might have the best pure changeup in the entire draft class, if we separate it from split-changes and splitters, and his other pitches aren\u2019t too shabby either. He\u2019s 92-96 mph with that plus changeup, a pitch that has great deception, power at 86-89, and tailing action that makes it deceptive to hitters on both sides. He\u2019ll use it in any count, even to get ahead. His slider is solid-average, 82-86, with some tilt, more a swing-and-miss pitch against right-handers than one he\u2019ll try to throw for a strike. The delivery isn\u2019t great, as he starts all the way on the first-base end of the rubber and lands too early, so he cuts himself off and has to come slightly across his body to pitch to his glove side. He also plants his front leg too soon, spinning off the front heel and putting more stress on his arm with the abrupt finish. None of these are reasons not to take him, but they\u2019re things player development will probably want to address sooner rather than later, to make him more effective \u2014 he\u2019s got fringy command at best, although he does throw strikes \u2014 and keep him healthy. It\u2019s at least No. 3 starter stuff and he could end up a strong No. 2 for most teams with some delivery help, assuming that gives him another half-grade of command.\n<\/p>\n

8. Kansas City Royals<\/a>: Blake Mitchell<\/a>, C, Sinton (Texas) High<\/p>\n

No. 20 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

I\u2019m assuming the Royals cut some kind of deal here with Mitchell, as he wasn\u2019t going anywhere near this pick otherwise \u2014 although he was the best high school catcher in the draft class by a wide margin. He\u2019s a power-hitting catcher who should end up a plus defender, with a plus arm for certain, but he did have a little trouble hitting better quality pitching last summer. High school catchers are generally one of the riskiest demographics in the first round, which is why they\u2019ve become rarer picks up there in recent years. The Royals have cut significantly with their top pick several times in recent years, including in 2021 with Frank Mozzicato<\/a>, so they could go well over slot with multiple picks later, so watch for who they take in the second round.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Mitchell is the best high school catcher in the draft class this year, which probably puts him in the first round automatically, although the potential as a left-handed-hitting catcher with power and plus defense also qualifies him. Mitchell starts with a very wide stance and still strides forward from there, which gave him some trouble with better quality stuff last summer and probably cuts off some of his natural power. His hands work well at the plate and he has the finish to his swing to drive the ball in the air, with 25-homer potential if he hits enough to get to it. He\u2019s a plus defender with a plus arm who is a no-doubt catcher, which is good since he doesn\u2019t have a clear alternative position. He\u2019s nowhere near the same sort of prospect off the mound, but does work 90-94 mph, showing his arm strength, just lacking anything like an average second pitch.\n<\/p>\n

9. Colorado Rockies<\/a>: Chase Dollander<\/a>, RHP, Tennessee<\/p>\n

No. 15 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Rockies always need pitching, and they\u2019ve been linked to Dollander for months; he\u2019s also a perfect pick for them because a year ago, if you\u2019d said Dollander would go ninth overall, anyone involved in the draft would have told you that you were out of your mind. At his best, he\u2019s 93-97 mph with a wipeout slider, but changed his slider grip this spring and saw the pitch back way up to the point where there were games where he wouldn\u2019t get a single whiff on the pitch. He throws a ton of strikes and has enough changeup that there\u2019s no concern about him starting. You just have to hope the Rockies can restore his 2022 slider, in which case they might have a No. 2 starter.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Dollander will be one of the most fascinating names to watch on draft day, as he came into the year as the top college pitcher in the class but struggled all spring with command and never found the grade-70 slider he had as a sophomore. That slider was short and tight with what appeared to be very late downward break, and Dollander could throw it for a strike or use it as a chase pitch. This spring, however, it never had the same bite, and hitters whiffed on it less and chased far less, about two-thirds as often as they did the year before, so Dollander had to rely more on his fastball. His fastball is still 93-97mph and he throws it for strikes, albeit not quite as much as he did in 2022, so if some team can figure out what went wrong with his slider \u2013 Did Tennessee try to get him to change the pitch? Is he dealing with some injury or discomfort? \u2013 there\u2019s a good chance they\u2019ll get the draft\u2019s best or second-best college pitcher. He had No. 2 starter ceiling or better last spring, and that pitcher might still be in here.\n<\/p>\n

10. Miami Marlins<\/a>: Noble Meyer, RHP, Jesuit High (Portland, Ore.)<\/p>\n

No. 26 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Marlins definitely draft their own way, reaching badly last year for Jacob Berry<\/a>, and this year they take the first high school pitcher. Meyer is indeed the best high school pitching prospect this year, with huge spin on two breaking balls and a fastball that reached 101 mph later in the spring. There are mixed reviews on the delivery, although I don\u2019t see any big problems with it, and his fastball plays down from its velocity. Really, though, they took a high school pitcher at the 10th pick, and all the available information we have says you don\u2019t want to use a pick that high on anyone in that category. Just look at Jackson Jobe and Andrew Painter<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Meyer is probably the top high school pitcher in this draft, certainly the top right-hander, and in some years he\u2019d be looking at a sure top-10 selection and would be at least a little higher on my rankings, although new readers should bear in mind that I discount all high school pitchers based on the much higher attrition rates for such players taken in the first round. (They reach the majors at a much lower rate than other categories, and even if they get there, a lower percentage of them have sustained success.) Meyer has been up to 101 mph this spring, sitting 94-96 mph in most starts, with a hammer curveball that has huge spin rates and a power slider, barely using his changeup, perhaps because he just doesn\u2019t need it yet. It\u2019s a good delivery and good body for a starter, with a lot of projection left on his 6-foot-5 frame. I\u2019ve heard scouts say they think the fastball plays down from its velocity, which is a fair concern but also a small one if that\u2019s his biggest flaw. There\u2019s at least mid-rotation upside here.\n<\/p>\n

11. Los Angeles Angels<\/a>: Nolan Schanuel<\/a>, 1B, FAU<\/p>\n

No. 18 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Schanuel might have rivaled Crews for the best performance this season by a draft prospect, although Crews did it in the SEC. Schanuel\u2019s a disciplined hitter who can whack a fastball, and has both feel to hit and plus power. He\u2019s limited to first base, though, so he absolutely has to continue to produce across the board. He walked five times as often as he struck out this spring and was one of the best hitters for contact in the country. I\u2019m going to guess the Angels will push him very quickly, and start him in Double A in April to try to get him to the majors quickly as they did with Zach Neto<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Schanuel\u2019s stat line might be the only one to rival Crews\u2019, with a hilarious .447\/.615\/.868 line and 71 walks against just 14 strikeouts. He\u2019s done so in Conference USA, not the SEC, so he hasn\u2019t faced the same caliber of arms, and he\u2019s limited to first base, which seriously dents his draft stock, as does a mediocre performance hitting on the Cape last summer. He can hammer a fastball, even at good velocity, and rarely whiffs on heaters or chases anything out of the zone. He starts with his hands high above his head, except with two strikes, when he starts a little closer to the helmet, but it\u2019s mostly just for show as he gets his hands into position in time. Otherwise, it\u2019s a simple approach, and his hands and hips work very well together for solid contact \u2026 but it\u2019s not elite contact quality or huge raw power, which might indicate there\u2019s a lower ceiling for the bat. If he could play anywhere else, he\u2019d probably sneak into the top half of the round.\n<\/p>\n

12. Arizona Diamondbacks<\/a>: Tommy Troy<\/a>, SS, Stanford<\/p>\n

No. 13 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Troy is a bat-first prospect who\u2019ll have to find a position, although he could potentially work out either at third base or maybe even move to the outfield, not that the D-Backs need another center fielder at this point. He\u2019s an outstanding fastball hitter and makes generally hard contact, although he needs to get the ball in the air more to turn those strong exit velos into real power. He\u2019s athletic enough that you can just say you\u2019ll figure out the position later because the bat will play anywhere.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Troy is a very high-contact hitter despite a swing that sometimes looks like it\u2019s going to take him right out of his shoes, occasionally generating very hard contact but with only middling power. He almost never misses a fastball, whiffing on only eight percent of them this spring (through the end of the regular season) even when he goes out of zone, and he clearly hunts those pitches, doing the vast majority of his damage there. He has shown a vulnerability to changeups both this spring and last summer on the Cape, although not enough to dent his overall line. He\u2019s a 55 runner who\u2019s played all over the field, mostly playing third this year for the Cardinal, but with some shortstop experience, enough that he should go out either at that spot or maybe even try center. Teams that have been chasing contact should be all over Troy, as he doesn\u2019t just make a lot of contact, it\u2019s solid quality contact, and if someone can get him to put the ball in the air more he might get to 55 power in time.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n No Maryland player has ever been drafted higher than Matt Shaw. (Ben McKeown \/ AP Photo)<\/p>\n

13. Chicago Cubs<\/a>: Matt Shaw<\/a>, SS, Maryland<\/p>\n

No. 7 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Shaw was sort of a favorite of mine \u2014 I ranked him seventh in the class \u2014 so of course I love this pick, and he could be a quick mover to the big leagues if the Cubs just slide him over to second base. Shaw can flat-out hit, and makes hard contact with a swing that produces a lot of line drives, so there\u2019s reason to believe the big power he showed for Maryland will carry over to 20+ homers when he gets to the big leagues. He had some of the best batted-ball data in the draft and hit good pitching the handful of times he saw it. We know from last year the Cubs value the data side heavily in the draft, and Shaw fits that, but also comes with a longer track record of strong performance.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Let\u2019s get the big thing out of the way first \u2014 Shaw is a shortstop now, but he is not a shortstop, and if he\u2019d just played second base all spring I think he\u2019d sail into the top 10 picks. So much of the conversation around him has centered on his defensive shortcomings, notably his below-average arm, that there\u2019s been too little focus on the fact that this guy hits. Shaw makes consistent, hard contact, and his average launch angle of 26 degrees puts him right in line for a high Barrel percentage. He\u2019s walked more than he\u2019s struck out so far this year, and after hitting 22 homers as a sophomore, he hit 23 this spring before even getting to the Big Ten tournament \u2014 despite getting COVID-19 early in the season, which cost him a weekend when he looked exhausted and may have given some scouts a bad look. I think he\u2019ll be an above-average defender at second, as he\u2019ll show adequate range at short \u2014 it\u2019s his arm that will move him off, not his hands or feet. Even at second base, he has All-Star upside because of the bat.\n<\/p>\n

14. Boston Red Sox: Kyle Teel, C, Virginia<\/p>\n

No. 6 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Teel sliding this far is a shock, really \u2014 a college catcher who stays at the position, has a track record of hitting, is a good athlete, and played for an elite program in one of the two best conferences in the country doesn\u2019t go in the top 10? I\u2019m shocked, but Red Sox fans should be ecstatic. He has some areas to work on, needing especially to improve his production against left-handed pitching, but he\u2019s a great athlete for a catcher and it shows up in his running, his movement behind the plate, and even in the bat speed from his quick wrists. He might not have the upside of some of the bats who went before him, but I think he could still end up an All-Star at some point, and has a high floor because he can catch.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Teel might have been a first-rounder had the 2020 spring season taken place, as he was already on everyone\u2019s radar coming out of the previous summer and fall as a very athletic catcher who looked like he\u2019d hit and would definitely stay at the position. He went undrafted in the five-round affair that June, then hit .335\/.416\/.526 as a freshman at Virginia, catching 20 games and establishing himself as a likely first-rounder for 2023 even that far ahead. After a slight dip in his sophomore production, he hit .414\/.480\/.668 through the regular season for the Cavaliers, with just a 12 percent strikeout rate, showing excellent bat speed and pitch recognition, with the bat control to even make some decent contact on pitches out of the zone. His swing produces a lot of line-drive contact and he might have another half-grade of power coming if he gets a little stronger. Behind the plate, he\u2019s agile with a plus arm and receives well, needing some work on framing and handling pitches low in the zone, which he tends to catch by dropping the glove first before moving back up towards the bottom of the zone. I\u2019ve compared his ceiling before to a left-handed-hitting Jason Kendall, a guy who puts the ball in play a ton, runs very well for a catcher, and is an asset on defense.\n<\/p>\n

15. Chicago White Sox<\/a>: Jacob Gonzalez<\/a>, SS, Mississippi<\/p>\n

No. 22 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Gonzalez came into the spring as a potential top-five pick, but had an underwhelming spring \u2014 not a bad one, just not one where he progressed in a way that would have kept him in the top 10 when so many other college hitters were producing. He\u2019s a very safe pick, a shortstop who stays there and has the hand-eye to make a lot of contact and hit for average with solid OBPs. He did hit 18 homers this year for Mississippi, but I don\u2019t think that power is going to hold up with wood bats unless the White Sox get him to use his lower half more.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Gonzalez came into the year with a lot of top-five buzz, and he might very well still go in the top 10, but doesn\u2019t offer the ceiling of the college hitters I have listed above him here. He\u2019s a very solid player for what he is, but with limited potential for more. Gonzalez has excellent hand-eye coordination and strong bat control to make a ton of contact, moving the barrel around to meet the ball where it\u2019s pitched so that he almost never whiffs on pitches in the zone. He hit 18 homers last year, but doesn\u2019t project to hit for more than fringy power in pro ball as he doesn\u2019t use his legs much, with no stride and a tendency to glide over his front side, with very little connection between how his upper and lower halves work. That might be his one path to upside, as his contact quality now is just fair and using his legs more might improve that. He\u2019s hit .327\/.435\/.564 this spring, an improvement from his sophomore year but I don\u2019t think enough to push him up into the Teel\/Shaw\/Troy tier of college bats. Gonzalez projects to stay at short with great instincts and soft hands, although he\u2019s a fringy runner and some scouts use that as a proxy for a player\u2019s ability to handle shortstop long-term. I think he\u2019s a solid regular at short, not a star, and in some drafts that\u2019s a top 10 pick, but this year it\u2019s probably less.\n<\/p>\n

16. San Francisco Giants<\/a>: Bryce Eldridge<\/a>, 1B\/RHP, James Madison High (Vienna, Va.)<\/p>\n

No. 16 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Eldridge wants to be a two-way player, although his future is much more likely to come as a hitter. He\u2019s 6-foot-7 with a short swing for his size, generating power but also staying short enough to the ball that he might be able to cover more of the zone than most guys that height do \u2014 I\u2019ve written many times about the high failure rate of hitters 6-7 and up. He\u2019s athletic enough to play an outfield corner, but stayed at first base in high school to preserve his arm. He\u2019s got the fastball and delivery to be a pitcher, but hasn\u2019t shown any feel to spin the ball yet and would require so much more time as a pitcher that I worry it will hamper his development as a hitter. He also had a lingering ankle issue this spring that might delay his pro debut. The \u201cAmerican Shohei Ohtani<\/a>\u201d is pretty extreme hyperbole, but I really like Eldridge\u2019s bat, and if that doesn\u2019t work out, he does offer pitching as a fallback option.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: There was some buzz coming into the year that Eldridge would be a legitimate two-way prospect, but this spring created some separation and he\u2019s much more likely to go out as a hitter than as a pitcher. Eldridge is 6-foot-7, 220 pounds, very tall for a hitter by historical standards, with no hitter that height staying a regular past his early 30s. But he does offer a short swing given the length of his arms and excellent bat speed, with the strong exit velocities you\u2019d expect from a hitter his size. On the mound, he\u2019s 91-93 mph and can bump 95 mph with a repeatable delivery, but doesn\u2019t have great feel to spin the ball and would likely require far more development as a pitcher than he will as a hitter. He played first base for his high school, ostensibly to protect his arm, but seems more than athletic enough to play a corner outfield spot. The Alabama recruit did miss some time in April with an ankle injury that kept coming back. I don\u2019t think he\u2019s the next two-way prospect, but he does offer a ton of upside as a power-hitting right fielder, even with the risk associated with players his height.\n<\/p>\n

17. Baltimore Orioles<\/a>: Enrique Bradfield Jr.<\/a>, OF Vanderbilt<\/p>\n

No. 12 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Bradfield is an interesting departure for the Orioles, who have done exceptionally well drafting hitters in the last few years \u2014 and that might understate it. He\u2019s a plus-plus defender and 80 runner whose swing went way backward this year. But he\u2019s athletic and has bat speed, enough that a team that\u2019s good at helping hitters with their swings, which the Orioles are, has plenty to work with. Getting him to stay back and use his lower half to drive the ball should allow him to hit for average and gain some extra bases from his speed, although I doubt he ever gets to more than fringe-average power. He\u2019s also incredibly fun to watch, and the floor is high thanks to the defense.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Bradfield brings two elite tools to the table \u2013 he\u2019s an 80 runner and at least a 70 defender in center, maybe an 80, thanks to that speed and very good reads on balls off the bat. He\u2019s stolen 129 bases in three seasons with the Commodores, through the end of this year\u2019s regular season, with just 13 times caught stealing, none as a sophomore when he was a perfect 46 of 46. At the plate, however, he comes with some questions, including a swing that needs a ton of help. He loads his hands very deep, takes a big stride, opens his hips early, and collapses his back side \u2026 it\u2019s a wonder he hits as well as he does, but also opens a world of possibilities for improvement. He\u2019s slight, but not weak, with exit velocities that point to average power if he can sync up his upper and lower halves and stay more upright through contact. The 14 homers he\u2019s hit since the start of 2022 are a promising sign, and could still get him into the top-10 picks for a team that loves the floor his speed and defense provide.\n<\/p>\n

18. Milwaukee Brewers<\/a>: Brock Wilken<\/a>, 3B, Wake Forest<\/p>\n

No. 17 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Brewers were supposed to be on college hitting all spring, and Wilken is one of the best still on the board along with Brayden Taylor<\/a>. Wilken was among D1 leaders with 31 homers and posted a .506 OBP, although he punched out more than most of the other hitters you\u2019ll see in the first round. It\u2019s a great swing and he barrels the ball very often, enough to believe he\u2019ll continue to do enough damage on contact to mitigate the higher strikeout rate. I\u2019ve got him staying at third base, although there was some talk of him moving to right field.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Wilken had an extended slump in ACC play this year that might push him out of the first round, finishing the year with a .269\/.493\/.548 line in conference that was a huge improvement from where he was just three weeks earlier. He has a very good swing with great balance and excellent hip rotation, showing 55 power right now, with improved exit velocities down the stretch and one of the best barrel rates among college prospects in the draft class. He\u2019s at least a solid-average defender at third with a 55 arm and good instincts that make up for a lack of speed or lightness on his feet. I could see him getting to 25-plus homers, or staying more in the teens in home run output with a high average and a lot of doubles, either of which would make him a solid regular at third.\n<\/p>\n

19. Tampa Bay Rays<\/a>: Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU<\/p>\n

No. 11 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Taylor was the best college hitter left on the board. The TCU third baseman has a great swing that produces a lot of loud, line-drive contact, but a mid-year slump might have been the reason he went from a probable top-10 pick in February to the 19th pick now. It could be great value for the Rays if the higher whiff rate this year was more of a fluke than an indication of any change in skill, and he did end up with 23 homers in a supposedly bad season. He\u2019s a no-doubt third baseman, as well.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Taylor has a very pretty left-handed swing with good loft in the finish to drive the ball in the air, with some of the best batted-ball data in the college class, from launch angle to hard-hit rates and more. He had a low BABIP this year of just .307, inconsistent with how hard he hits the ball and how often he does so. He also slumped in the middle of the season, but had a huge Big 12 tournament, going 8 for 16 with four doubles and three homers, with a .305\/.430\/.650 line heading into the regionals, and a career-best 21 homers. He\u2019s just an average runner but savvy on the bases, with a perfect 23 for 23 record on the bases his last two years at TCU. He\u2019s a solid-average defender at third with a 55 or 60 arm, although he\u2019s athletic and rangy enough to become a plus defender with the right coaching. Taylor projects as a solid-average regular, with a couple of ways he could turn into something more.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Arjun Nimmala, one of the youngest players in the draft, won\u2019t turn 18 until October. (Courtesy of Team USA Baseball)<\/p>\n

20. Toronto Blue Jays<\/a>: Arjun Nimmala<\/a>, SS, Strawberry Crest High (Dover, Fla.)<\/p>\n

No. 8 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Nimmala is one of the youngest players in the draft class, so any team that uses a draft model that values age is going to love him \u2014\u00a0and there\u2019s lots to love, as he\u2019s a highly projectable shortstop who is going to end up with maybe 70 power, at least 60, and has a powerful right-handed swing. He\u2019s very likely to stay at shortstop, with great instincts and a plus arm, although I could see a scenario where he just gets so big he has to move. I thought he was a top-10 talent, so this is a steal for Toronto.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Nimmala is one of the youngest players in the entire draft class, certainly the youngest on my Big Board, as he won\u2019t turn 18 until November, which will appeal to all the teams that value age in their draft models. But he\u2019s also very talented and would still be a first-rounder even if he were 18 already. Nimmala is a lean 6-1 and already shows above-average power with a strong swing that makes excellent use of his hips to generate that contact quality. He\u2019s a rangy shortstop with good hands and an easy plus arm, and although he\u2019s probably just an average runner in the end, he\u2019s certain to stay at the position long term. Where he falls short of the high school hitters above him is in his present hit tool, as he\u2019s shown more propensity to swing and miss than his peers but seems to hit velocity fine. If he didn\u2019t have that, he\u2019d be in that uppermost tier of players, since he\u2019d have the hit tool, power and defense at a critical position. Instead, he offers the potential for that sort of player with a slightly longer timeframe and greater risk around his ability to hit when he enters pro ball.\n<\/p>\n

21. St. Louis Cardinals<\/a>: Chase Davis<\/a>, OF, Arizona<\/p>\n

No. 30 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Davis belongs in the first round, although it\u2019s only in the last week or so that his name really started to pop in this range. The University of Arizona outfielder made some real adjustments at the plate to cut his strikeout rate this year, boosting his average by 73 points and hitting for more power. He\u2019s not a base stealer but moves well enough to at least start out in center field, and the Cardinals certainly have a history of improving outfielders\u2019 range.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Davis is one of the most improved players among the college prospects in this class, cutting his strikeout rate from 22.8 percent as a sophomore to 14.4 percent this year as a junior for the Wildcast, while hitting for more power. A good chunk of the improvement came from closing up the whole he\u2019d shown on the inner-third as an underclassman; he still does most of his damage on stuff middle-away, but he doesn\u2019t whiff as much on stuff inside, and if there\u2019s any weakness here, it\u2019s on velocity up. His game power is at least a 60, and he\u2019s a 55 runner who plays center now and should at least begin his pro career out there, with the downside of an above-average defender in right if he can\u2019t stay up the middle. I think he\u2019s at least a regular and has more upside than some of the safer college bats who\u2019ll go before him.\n<\/p>\n

22. Seattle Mariners: Colt Emerson, SS, John Glenn High (New Concord, Ohio)<\/p>\n

No. 29 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Mariners were linked to Emerson a little this spring, but they were also supposed to go for a college bat at No. 22 to save some money for later picks \u2013 until all of the college position players who made sense here went before their pick. Emerson won\u2019t turn 18 until next month and his hit tool was one of the best among the high school hitters this year, so this is probably not a discount pick at No. 22 with Cleveland<\/a> apparently ready to take him at No. 23.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Emerson is one of the better hitters in the high school class, with a chance to come into some power as well. He\u2019s got a loose left-handed swing with the loft to drive the ball, although the swing is handsy and he doesn\u2019t get much from his lower half. He\u2019s strong for his size and age (he\u2019ll turn 18 about two weeks after the draft), so there\u2019s some hope he\u2019ll get to average power with some swing work, while right now it\u2019s definitely hit over power. The Auburn commit is a shortstop now but is going to move to second or third in pro ball, as he\u2019s just an average or fringe-average runner and that added muscle has him looking less like what we see in pro shortstops. He\u2019s got quite a bit of upside as a high-average, 15- to 20-homer hitter at second base if he gets to the ceiling.\n<\/p>\n

23. Cleveland Guardians: Ralphy Velazquez<\/a>, C, Huntington Beach (Calif.) High<\/p>\n

No. 35 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Velazquez is a bat-first catcher who worked on his conditioning in the winter to move himself way up draft boards, showing up in February with a more compact build on his 6-foot2 frame, looking like a strong catcher whose power could make him an above-average regular. He\u2019s a solid hitter for contact who already has above-average power, although he has to work on staying back on the ball for that to play regularly. Behind the plate, he\u2019s a work in progress, but adequate enough to think that with work and time he can be an average defender.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Velazquez showed well early this spring after working on his conditioning and his catching in the offseason, giving him a chance to go somewhere between the late first round and early second, especially in a draft without much catching. He\u2019s a strong kid whose body looks compact for its listed size of 6-foot-2, and when he stays back he can show plus power, although his over-wide setup often leads to him drifting over his front side. He is a high school catcher, however, and unlike Mitchell, he has some work to do to get himself to an average defender. He\u2019s committed to Arizona State.\n<\/p>\n

24. Atlanta: Hurston Waldrep<\/a>, RHP, Florida<\/p>\n

No. 14 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Waldrep has one of the best pitches in the entire draft in his splitter, which has enormous tumble to it and looks enough like the fastball out of his hand that it can continue to be an out pitch as he moves up the ladder. He\u2019s got plus velocity, although the fastball doesn\u2019t have a ton of movement to it, and he needs to work on his command and control to allow him to get to the splitter more as it\u2019s often out of the zone and not useful to him early in counts. He\u2019s got enough breaking ball to project as a starter if the command and control get there, with a high floor as a two-pitch reliever.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Waldrep might have been the No. 2 college pitcher coming into the spring, but a spring of inconsistent performance didn\u2019t helped his draft stock, even with stuff that should have him in the top half of the first round. Waldrep\u2019s splitter is one of the best swing-and-miss pitches in the draft, with hitters whiffing nearly two-thirds of the time they swing at it, and chasing it 45 percent of the time Waldrep throws it out of the zone. It\u2019s got huge bottom to it at 85-89 mph, coming in like a fastball and dropping hard very late for the hitter, so he may already be committed to a pitch that\u2019s no longer there. That\u2019s also its weakness, as it usually finishes out of the strike zone \u2013 roughly 70 percent of them would be called balls, and the vast majority of those are below the zone. He\u2019s got a hard curveball and a slider, both of which also generate misses but neither of which appears to be more than a fringe-average pitch because he doesn\u2019t consistently finish them out front. I think batters are whiffing because they\u2019re so geared up for the splitter, and that better hitters will pick up the spin and lay off the breaking balls. He has a very high arm slot, which may push him toward the curveball rather than the slider over the long term. Even if you want to call the breaking balls average or better based on the whiff rates alone, Waldrep has two things he has to improve: He doesn\u2019t throw enough strikes, and his fastball gets hit hard for something that averages 95 mph. If you\u2019re a hitter, you can go to the plate thinking mostly fastball versus splitter. If you think it\u2019s a splitter, you take; if you think it\u2019s a fastball, you swing hard, early, and this year the reward more than justified the risk, as Waldrep allowed a 4.83 ERA through the regular season with 12 homers in 15 starts. The whole is less than the sum of the parts, and that could represent an opportunity, because it\u2019s a 70 splitter and plenty of arm strength that could make him a very effective closer, along with the history of durability as a starter.\n<\/p>\n

25. San Diego Padres<\/a>: Dillon Head<\/a>, OF, Homewood-Flossmoor (Ill.) Community High<\/p>\n

No. 50 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Head is definitely a Padres sort of player, a premium athlete who should stay up the middle and offers a lot of upside on both sides of the ball, but might be further away from the majors than some of his peers. He\u2019s at least a 70 runner and a definite center fielder, while at the plate he shows bat speed, more hit than power, although when I saw him he had a hard time squaring up even a high school pitcher. He is uber-athletic, though, the sort of player who should be able to make adjustments more easily because he can do so many things easily. The Padres obviously trade a lot of prospects, and he\u2019s the sort of kid who\u2019ll show very well for pro scouts when he\u2019s in Low A next year.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Head is a premium athlete and at least a 70 runner who can really play center field, with some potential for power given his body and frame, garnering mixed views from scouts on how advanced his hit tool is and whether he\u2019s ready to go out and face pro pitching. He\u2019s listed at 5-foot-11, 180 pounds, although he might be an inch shorter, and he\u2019s pretty muscular for that frame. He has plenty of bat speed thanks to quick wrists, definitely geared up for fastballs, but I\u2019m not sold on the pitch recognition and think he\u2019s going to have to improve his ability to pick up offspeed stuff when he gets into pro ball. Some of this might just be that he loads his hands very high and deep, so he\u2019s got a longer path to the ball and has to commit sooner, rather than just a straight recognition issue. The defense\/speed and ability to hit a fastball should get him first-round money, but perhaps as someone\u2019s second or third pick. He\u2019s committed to Clemson.\n<\/p>\n

26. New York Yankees<\/a>: George Lombard Jr.<\/a>, SS, Gulliver Prep (Miami)<\/p>\n

No. 34 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Lombard is a shortstop who has a good chance to stay there and offers a ton of upside as a hitter, with a quiet approach and the bat path to come into plus power in time. I think he might be a longer development guy than, say, Anthony Volpe<\/a>, but offers pretty comparable upside, even if he ends up in center field or at second base instead of staying at short. After the Yankees went with college hitters in the first round the last three years, none of whom has worked out so far, this might be a return to their previous philosophy of hunting for more long-term upside \u2014 and in that case they picked the right guy.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Lombard is the son of the former Atlanta prospect, the team\u2019s second-round pick in 1995 and now the Tigers\u2019 bench coach, but Junior is taller, more athletic and an infielder with some real upside at the plate. He\u2019s got a straightforward swing and quiet approach with good loft for future 65-70 power. However, despite plenty of bat speed, he has struggled with better velocity and can get locked into a single bat path. He\u2019s a solid-average runner who\u2019s a shortstop now, with widely varying views on whether he can stay there; some scouts think he\u2019s a certain shortstop, while others see a move to second or center field. He\u2019s a Vanderbilt commit.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Aidan Miller\u2019s older brother Jackson was a second-round pick in 2020 (Courtesy of Team USA Baseball)<\/p>\n

27. Philadelphia Phillies<\/a>: Aidan Miller<\/a>, 3B, JW Mitchell High (Trinity, Fla.)<\/p>\n

No. 19 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

I\u2019m glad Miller still ended up in the first round after his spring was ruined by a broken hamate bone, something that can linger for months and sap a hitter of his power \u2013 so even if he went to work out for clubs, there\u2019s no guarantee he\u2019d show the full extent of his abilities. He\u2019s got 55 to 60 power already, at least when healthy, and showed good feel to hit when he could get his hands extended, although stuff on the inner third gives him some trouble. He\u2019s a third baseman now and should be able to stay there. This seems like a great value play, because most folks believed he\u2019d be a top-20 pick going into the spring.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Miller, whose older brother Jackson was a second-round pick in 2020, is a big, strong high school third baseman with above-average to plus power already, showing good feel to hit in showcases last year but missing a big chunk of this spring due to a broken hamate bone. He\u2019s got a simple swing beyond a big hand movement to get started, preferring the ball middle to away but struggling badly on anything on the inner third. He looked slower in his return this spring from the injury, and as expected had less power \u2013 broken hamates or other wrist\/hand bones can sap a hitter\u2019s power for months, so he may not be 100 percent until the fall or even next spring, but the previous power should still be there. Miller\u2019s a third baseman now with plenty of arm and the footwork to stay there, with fringe-average speed that will probably trend down to 45 as he fills out. If you\u2019re willing to bet that the Aidan Miller of 2022 is still here, you might get a regular at third with plus power, with some risk as he has to adjust to pitchers working him inside.\n<\/p>\n

28. Houston Astros<\/a>: Brice Matthews<\/a>, SS, Nebraska<\/p>\n

No. 57 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Matthews is the lowest-ranked player on my board to go in the first round because of concerns about his hit tool. He\u2019s got a dead-pull approach and likes the ball down, so fastballs up and in already give him trouble, and that\u2019s not going to get any easier in pro ball. He\u2019s a shortstop for now, but may end up at another position, possibly center field. There\u2019s definitely power here, as he hit 21 bombs for the Huskers this year, but college position players with hit tool questions are pretty high-risk as first-rounders.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Matthews exploded this year for 21 homers for the Huskers after hitting 12 total in his first two years in Lincoln. He finished the year with a .359\/.481\/.723 line, ending the year fourth among Big 10 hitters in homers and second in walks. The power itself is real, but it comes from a dead-pull approach where he looks for the ball down, which has left him vulnerable to fastballs, especially those up in or just above the zone. He\u2019s an excellent athlete and plus runner who would probably be able to move to center if he can\u2019t stick at short, so he offers some floor where he should play a premium defensive position or could serve as a utility player who can fill in across the infield and in center. The hit tool is a real concern, probably projecting to a 45 at best, but the power, defense and positional value might help it all play.<\/p>\n

29. Seattle Mariners: Jonny Farmelo, OF, Westfield High (Chantilly, Va.)<\/p>\n

No. 28 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The M\u2019s were connected to Farmelo all spring, as they\u2019re hunting tools, clearly, and he\u2019s got \u2019em. He\u2019s a plus-plus runner who can play center, and he\u2019s got great hand-eye coordination, so he showed feel to hit even with a swing that needs a lot of help, from the way he bars his arm to the silly launch-angley finish that someone gave him to try to force power instead of letting his ability to hit just carry the day. I\u2019ve put it this way to scout friends: If he can hit as well as he does, including against Eldridge\u2019s 91-93 mph, with a swing that bad, then I think he can flat-out hit.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Farmelo does it all wrong at the plate, with an arm bar and a bizarre launch-angly finish, but he\u2019s so good at fouling stuff off that he performs anyway \u2013 and if someone just loosens him up and lets him hit freely, he might really take off. He had no trouble handling low-90s stuff from right-hander Bryce Eldridge in one of their matchups this spring, with exceptional hand-eye and a clear idea of what he needs to do at the plate to get a pitch he can hit hard. He\u2019s a superb athlete and 65-70 runner who can definitely stay in center field, and should come into 55 power. He\u2019s considered a strong commit to UVA, but that might be the worst choice for someone who needs this kind of swing adjustment, as UVA\u2019s track record there is not strong. He\u2019s a big upside play because even small changes to the swing could make him one of the best hitters for contact and average in the class.\n<\/p>\n

30. Seattle Mariners: Tai Peete, SS, Trinity Christian High (Sharpsburg, Ga.)<\/p>\n

No. 52 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Peete\u2019s another big tools guy, a true shortstop who can run, who has bat speed, and who did have a plus arm before something bothered him last summer, after which he gave up pitching. He isn\u2019t as advanced a hitter as Emerson or Farmelo, though, showing some pitch recognition issues over the last year. With two pretty advanced high school bats already in their draft class, though, the Mariners could afford to go after a high-risk\/high-reward guy like this.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Peete is a tooled-out shortstop who pitched some as a junior before he got hurt at East Coast Pro last year, after which he hasn\u2019t returned to the mound. He\u2019s a left-handed hitter with bat speed, but tends to get uphill with a very firm front side, leaving him with a swing that might end up putting the ball too much in the air. His plate discipline does lag behind his peers, and he had trouble with fastballs even in-zone at showcases last year, getting a little benefit of the doubt from being young for his class, turning 18 in August. He\u2019s still had issues throwing this spring, although he did play shortstop rather than DH for his high school. He\u2019s very athletic and twitchy with plus speed, so you can dream on the upside here, and he does project as a shortstop if there\u2019s no further arm trouble. He carries more risk than the typical high school position player. He\u2019s committed to Georgia Tech.\n<\/p>\n

31. Tampa Bay Rays: Adrian Santana<\/a>, SS, Doral (Fla.) Academy<\/p>\n

No. 62 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Santana is a very undersized high-school shortstop who can really play defense and is a switch-hitter but can\u2019t impact the ball at all right now, and his 5-foot-11 frame doesn\u2019t offer a ton of room for physical projection. He\u2019s on the younger side, turning 18 later in July, but unless he develops into an elite defender I\u2019m not sure there\u2019s enough upside to take him this high.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Santana\u2019s a young switch-hitting shortstop who won\u2019t turn 18 until the week after the draft, with decent swings from both sides but nowhere near the strength to drive the ball yet. His left-handed swing shows quite a bit more bat speed than the right-handed one, but either way he has swung and missed too often in high school and doesn\u2019t hit the ball hard when he does make contact. He\u2019s undersized at 5-11 (at most) and about 150 pounds, with some room to get stronger and perhaps pick up some bat speed in time, although that\u2019s a big ask even with his youth. He\u2019s a plus-plus runner who should definitely stay at shortstop, so if he fills out and can improve his impact quality he could be a strong regular, while he has the downside risk of a Nick Madrigal or Kevin Newman type who doesn\u2019t make enough hard contact to be more than a bench player.\n<\/p>\n

32. New York Mets: Colin Houck<\/a>, SS, Parkview High (Lilburn, Ga.)<\/p>\n

No. 10 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Houck was definitely sliding this week after it seemed like he was going to go in the early teens for a good part of the spring, but the Mets end up getting great value here in that regard, pouncing on a player who should never have gotten near them. Houck looks like he\u2019s really going to hit \u2013 it\u2019s a quiet setup and swing with great hand acceleration, producing hard contact with excellent launch angles to foresee plus power. He\u2019s not a shortstop but has the hands to stay on the dirt, probably at third base, although he\u2019s going to be a big kid when he finishes filling out. It\u2019ll come down to the hit tool and how good his approach is. If he shows some pitch and ball\/strike recognition, the Mets may have gotten a top-15 talent without having a first-round pick.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Houck is a two-sport star who is committed to Mississippi State for baseball only, giving up the gridiron in favor of the diamond, although he\u2019s done well enough this spring that he\u2019s probably never going to Starkville except as a tourist. Houck has a super quiet approach, with some present power now that projects to plus, as he uses his hips and legs well and generates good launch angles off the bat. He\u2019s reasonably disciplined already, with some weakness against high fastballs. He has the arm and hands for short but he\u2019s already big for the position and may end up at third base instead. He\u2019s going to get some comparisons to 2021 first-rounder Brady House<\/a>, also from Georgia, also a big shortstop who hit the ball even harder than Houck does, although I think Houck\u2019s overall profile is quite similar. The bat is the real carrying tool here, regardless of where he plays.\n<\/p>\n

33. Milwaukee Brewers: Josh Knoth<\/a>, RHP, Patchogue-Medford (N.Y.) High<\/p>\n

No. 60 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

I said that Knoth was someone that teams that value pitch metrics would love, and the Brewers are one of those. He\u2019s got ride on the fastball and spin on the curveball, but the delivery isn\u2019t great and he needs a third pitch. It\u2019s a little like their second pick last year, Jacob Misiorowski<\/a>, who just hit 102 mph in the Futures Game on Saturday \u2014 tremendous fastball, plus-plus slider, bad delivery, not sure if he can start \u2014 although Knoth is still 17 and has a lot more time to work on smoothing out the delivery and finding a changeup of some sort. Also, Strong Island represent.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Knoth is a Mississippi commit with huge spin rates on his breaking ball and a fastball up to 95 mph who had scouts racing \u2014 well, crawling \u2014 down the Long Island Expressway to see him this spring. He\u2019s one of the youngest pitchers in the class, turning 18 about a month after the draft. His fastball shows good ride up at the top of the zone, and the curveball is a hammer with very tight rotation, two-plane break and a ton of depth to it. There\u2019s effort to the delivery, with his arm a touch late and some head-whack at release, and he hasn\u2019t shown much of a third pitch so far. Teams that value the advanced pitch metrics like spin rate and axis will love him, and there\u2019s still some projection left here, although the delivery and below-average control make him a longer-term play and may limit his ceiling.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Charlee Soto has some of the best pure stuff in this draft class. (Courtesy of Team USA Baseball)<\/p>\n

34. Minnesota Twins: Charlee Soto<\/a>, RHP, Reborn Christian Academy (Kissimmee, Fla.)<\/p>\n

No. 31 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Soto had some of the best stuff of any high school pitcher in the draft, three now pitches that could show plus, but he was a little tougher to see than most high school pitchers, sometimes going two weeks between starts. If he were 21, with exactly the same stuff and delivery, he\u2019d be a top-10 pick, so the main question with him is whether he can stay healthy the next few years as someone who already throws pretty hard. But it all works pretty well and, beyond health, he mostly needs to work on consistency to the delivery and location.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Soto has some of the best pure stuff in this draft class, with three pitches in his fastball, slider and split-changeup that can all show plus, along with a delivery he should be able to repeat for command. He\u2019s been up to 98 mph with some riding life to the four-seamer, while the split-change has the sort of hard fading action you expect from that pitch and shows good separation and deception. His slider is more of a power slurve with a break almost straight down, but he seems to throw it for strikes and gets late bite on the pitch. He\u2019s also one of the youngest pitchers in the draft, turning 18 at the end of August, and already is 6-foot-5 and listed at 210 pounds. Scouts found him difficult to see this spring as he\u2019d often go two weeks between outings, and his command wasn\u2019t where it was last summer on the showcase circuit. He\u2019s as risky as any high school arm, but this stuff rivals that of White\u2019s for the best among all prep pitchers this year.\n<\/p>\n

35. Miami Marlins: Thomas White<\/a>, LHP, Phillips Academy (Andover, Mass.)<\/p>\n

No. 27 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Marlins are all in on high school pitching, apparently, and they ended up with the top high school righty and top high school lefty in my rankings. (I did say all spring that I thought White would end up outside of the first round, not because of talent, but because of a combination of bonus demands, as he\u2019s a super-talented Vanderbilt commit, and teams\u2019 increased reluctance to take high school arms in the first round.) He\u2019s huge, close to 6-foot-7 and maybe 250 pounds, showing three potentially plus pitches, although he doesn\u2019t repeat the delivery that well and hitters get enough of a look that the fastball might play down a little. I see huge upside here, but also a ton of risk, with which the Marlins appear to be comfortable.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: White, not to be confused with LSU sophomore Tommy \u201cTanks\u201d White, is the top left-handed pitcher in the class right now, with injuries and poor performance taking out a few college names who might have been ahead of him. White is listed at 6-foot-5, 210 pounds, but has bulked up since that and might be closer to 6-foot-7, 250 pounds now, while he sits 93-95 mph with a plus curveball and plus changeup. His delivery isn\u2019t great, as he has a long arm stroke that\u2019s very visible to hitters and that he doesn\u2019t repeat well, so his command is still well below average. The arm stroke and the ease with which he can get to plus velocity reminds me a little of Sean Newcomb<\/a>, another lefty who did it very easily but whose delivery offered nothing to \u201cfix\u201d to improve his command. White is a fair athlete and probably will need some fine-tuning of the delivery, but you can point to those three pitches and hope for a No. 2 starter ceiling. He\u2019s a Vanderbilt commit and I can\u2019t imagine he\u2019ll be an easy sign.\n<\/p>\n

36. Los Angeles Dodgers: Kendall George, OF, Atascocita High (Humble, Texas)<\/p>\n

Not ranked on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Dodgers take the first player who wasn\u2019t on my top 100. The high school outfielder is an 80 runner and switch-hitter with well below-average power, maybe grade 30, between limited strength and a flat, slappy swing that puts the ball on the ground way more often than in the air. He\u2019s an Arkansas commit and I thought he\u2019d head to school, since he might have a much better draft profile in three years if he fills out some and has a few years of SEC production. But the Dodgers \u2014 who do have an excellent track record in the draft \u2014 obviously like the defense\/speed combination enough to buy him out of that.\n<\/p>\n

37. Detroit Tigers: Kevin McGonigle<\/a>, SS, Monsignor Bonner High (Drexel Hill, Pa.)<\/p>\n

No. 21 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

McGonigle\u2019s best tool is the bat, as he\u2019s hit good pitching well, and has the swing and understanding of the strike zone to keep that going in pro ball. He\u2019s a shortstop now but has to move, probably to second base, where he\u2019ll be fine. The one knock I heard on him this spring was that you can\u2019t project much more power here than there already is, although I think he\u2019ll get to average power in time. It\u2019s a real bet that he\u2019s a .300-plus hitter and will do enough of everything else to make him an above-average regular. I\u2019m in the camp that says he\u2019ll do it, or is at least likely enough to do it to be picked here.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: McGonigle is one of the better pure hitters in this year\u2019s high school class, which is saying something because this year\u2019s high school hitter group is historically strong. He showed very well on the showcase circuit last summer and on his school\u2019s trip to play in a tournament in Las Vegas this spring, which helped his cause substantially as he hasn\u2019t seen quality pitching at home, playing mostly other private schools in the Philly suburbs. He\u2019s a left-handed hitter with a clean, simple bat path and quick wrists, and he\u2019s shown excellent ball-strike recognition between last summer and this spring. He hasn\u2019t faced much good velocity, especially not this year, so there\u2019s some projection to the hit tool based on the bat speed and the swing itself. He doesn\u2019t always land strongly on his front side \u2013 he transfers his weight well, but his front leg isn\u2019t always in position to \u201creceive\u201d it, so to speak, which I think will cost him at least a half a grade of power until it\u2019s remedied. McGonigle, who is off the case, is committed to Auburn, and he\u2019s the sort of player who could launch himself into the top five with some strong batting lines for three years in the SEC.\n<\/p>\n

38. Cincinnati Reds: Ty Floyd, RHP, LSU<\/p>\n

No. 47 on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

The Reds, man. They land Floyd, who you might know from such hits as \u201cties College World Series record for strikeouts in one game,\u201d or maybe you just know as \u201cthat LSU starter who isn\u2019t Paul Skenes.\u201d Floyd is fascinating because he does it almost all with his fastball, which might have been called an invisi-ball 10 or 15 years ago but now we talk about pitch shapes, which is certainly better and more accurate, although I think \u201cinvisi-ball\u201d is way more fun. He will have to develop his other pitches, as he\u2019s got a bucket of 45s beyond the fastball, but the one thing Floyd has is both very hard to teach and something that has worked well for pitchers for as long as there\u2019s been a mound \u2013 a fastball that misses bats.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: Did anyone help himself more in the college postseason than Floyd, who finished his year by setting a CWS record with 17 strikeouts against a strong Florida lineup? Floyd\u2019s fastball is elite \u2014 he got 26 swinging strikes on the pitch against Gator hitters \u2014 as hitters don\u2019t see it at all, coming in 94-97 with great ride and some added deception from a short and lightning-quick arm stroke. The knock on Floyd is that he doesn\u2019t really have an average second pitch \u2014 he throws a slider and curve but neither is better than a 45, without great spin or break, and his changeup has good separation but not a ton of action. He walked just under 10 percent of hitters this spring for LSU, which he\u2019ll have to bring down in pro ball regardless of the development of his offspeed pitches. Scouts are already comparing him to Spencer Strider<\/a> for his ability to miss bats with his fastball alone, and I think you can project him as a starter given how well that pitch plays and the way the delivery works.\n<\/p>\n

39. Oakland A\u2019s: Myles Naylor<\/a>, 3B, St. Joan of Arc (Mississauga, Ont.)<\/p>\n

Not ranked on Law\u2019s Big Board<\/a><\/p>\n

Naylor is a reach for me even here, as he\u2019s not the hitter either of his brothers \u2013 both first-rounders \u2013 was at the same age, and doesn\u2019t have Josh\u2019s raw power or Bo\u2019s positional value. He\u2019s got a ways to go at the plate, and the A\u2019s have some work to do to clean him up, while they already announced him as a third baseman.<\/p>\n

Scouting Report: The youngest of the three Naylor brothers, and the only right-handed batter of the bunch, Myles has a very different profile than Josh or Bo, with some ceiling to his bat because he shows some power. He has a super-wide stance with no stride and is off balance too often, lacking the pitch recognition Bo had at that age to compensate. He\u2019s a shortstop now but has to move to third base if he\u2019s going to stay on the dirt at all. He\u2019s committed to Texas Tech.\n<\/p>\n

(Top photo: Alika Jenner \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n