{"id":530225,"date":"2026-01-21T03:27:15","date_gmt":"2026-01-21T03:27:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/530225\/"},"modified":"2026-01-21T03:27:15","modified_gmt":"2026-01-21T03:27:15","slug":"reds-roster-expectations-for-2026-the-bullpen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/530225\/","title":{"rendered":"Reds Roster Expectations for 2026: The Bullpen"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Cincinnati Reds<\/a>\u2018 bullpen is perhaps the most different part of the roster compared to last year. Many trades were made, but there will also be prominent relievers returning as well.<\/p>\n

The team addressed some of its deficiencies from last season. They were already solid in 2025, and will hope to be even better in 2026 as they look to make back-to-back postseason appearances.<\/p>\n

\"\"Sep 25, 2025; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds relief pitcher Emilio Pagan (15) hugs catcher Jose Trevino (35) after the victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
\nExpectations for the Reds Bullpen Next Season
\nEmilio Pagan<\/p>\n

Why not start with the Reds closer, who re-signed on a 2-year, $20 million contract early in the offseason? Emilio Pagan<\/a> is one of the more underrated arms coming into the 2026 season. His 2.88 ERA in 68 2\/3 innings (70 appearances) locked down the back of the bullpen for Cincinnati. Heading into 2025, Pagan was not the closer, as he was coming off a 4.50 ERA season in 2024. The Reds, however, opted to go for a rotating door of closers. That was until Pagan was lights out and won the job back.<\/p>\n

Not only were his surface-level numbers good, but his metrics were also elite.<\/p>\n

2.89 xERA \u2013 91st percentile<\/p>\n

.181 xBA \u2013 99th percentile<\/p>\n

32.6 Chase% \u2013 90th percentile<\/p>\n

29.2 Whiff% \u2013 78th percentile<\/p>\n

30.0 K% \u2013 89th percentile<\/p>\n

8.1 BB% \u2013 46th percentile<\/p>\n

37.0 Hard-Hit% \u2013 78th percentile<\/p>\n

Needless to say, more of the same should be expected out of Pagan in 2026, albeit hopefully in slightly fewer innings. Relievers are still the volatile position group in baseball, but Pagan\u2019s 2025 seems to be relatively repeatable.<\/p>\n

Reds, RHP Emilio Pag\u00e1n agree to 2-year deal with an opt out after 2026, per multiple reports including MLB\u2019s @Feinsand<\/a>. pic.twitter.com\/WyFRtUWMFG<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 MLB (@MLB) December 4, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Tony Santillan<\/p>\n

Moving on to Cincinnati\u2019s big hulking setup man, Tony Santillan<\/a>, who himself enjoyed a fantastic 2025 season. The 28-year-old righty had a shining 2.44 ERA in 72 2\/3 innings across 80 appearances. He was one of the most reliable arms in all of MLB last year.<\/p>\n

Santillan strikes out hitters at a solid rate and can generate whiffs in general, but some of his metrics do not look as good as Pagan\u2019s. Most notably, his 4.33 xERA and .244 xBA were both below league average and much higher than the actual results. This may be a bit worrisome, but he was able to have a 3.00 ERA in 30 innings in 2024 with better metrics.<\/p>\n

Reds fans should expect a season where he is somewhere between his 2024 and 2025 form, which will still be an extremely reliable back-end bullpen arm.<\/p>\n

Tony Santillan\u2019s 2025 is one of the more fascinating seasons from a relief arm<\/p>\n

Out performed xBA, xSLG, xERA, and xwOBA while finishing 3rd in MLB in HOLDS with 33. He was great in high leverage<\/p>\n

His FF, while holding a 9 RV, held a 49% HH rate. Avg EV & LA on it was 92.2 mph &\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/XerLVT8ji8<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Baseball Unstitched Podcast (@BaseUnstitched) January 19, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

Connor Phillips<\/p>\n

24 year-old right hander Connor Phillips<\/a> concluded his 2025 season with a sneaky good season. He had a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings and flashed some fantastic swing and miss stuff.<\/p>\n

Phillips didn\u2019t throw enough innings to qualify for MLB percentile rankings, but he was well above average in many categories.<\/p>\n

3.96 xERA<\/p>\n

.187 xBA<\/p>\n

37.4 Whiff%<\/p>\n

32.7 K%<\/p>\n

He was a former top prospect as a starter, but it definitely looks like the bullpen is the best fit for him. The fastball averaged 98.2 MPH (96th percentile), and the slider served as a perfect pairing.<\/p>\n

Walks are still a bit of a problem (12.2 BB% in 2025), but it has been proven that he can work around those issues.<\/p>\n

Fans can expect him to make some high-leverage spots here and there just so the organization can see what they have on their hands, but no matter what role he\u2019s in, expect lots of swings and misses.<\/p>\n

Luis Mey<\/p>\n

Luis Mey<\/a> will likely start the season in Triple-A, but the 24-year-old has one of the liveliest arms in the entire league. He averaged 98.9 MPH on his sinker in 2025, allowing him to have a 3.43 ERA in 21 innings. However, a deeper look at his metrics brings up some concerns.<\/p>\n

Like many other young, hard-throwing prospects, Mey struggles with command. He didn\u2019t throw enough innings to qualify for MLB percentile rankings, but his 17.7 BB% would have put him toward the bottom of the league.<\/p>\n

He was also unable to create tons of swing and misses, having a very low 22.1 Chase%, 25.6 Whiff%, and a 21.9 K%, all of which would be below league average had he qualified.<\/p>\n

On the bright side, since Mey throws his sinker 73% of the time, he generates ground balls at an elite rate (50.9 GB%) and limits hard-hit balls well too (36.8 Hard-Hit%). He is undoubtedly a two-pitch guy, and his slider needs more refining in order to be a more all-around MLB reliever.<\/p>\n

For now, Reds fans should be excited to see his development in Triple-A and expect him to appear in a Reds uniform here and there throughout the season.<\/p>\n

Zach Maxwell<\/p>\n

Nicknamed \u201cBig Sugar\u201d, Zach Maxwell<\/a> is yet another hard-throwing right-hander in Cincinnati\u2019s bullpen. The 24-year-old debuted in 2025, where he had a 4.50 ERA in 10 innings over 8 appearances.<\/p>\n

He has one of the hardest fastballs in the league, averaging 99.6 MPH (99th percentile), which he pairs with a cutter and slider. This resulted in some elite swing and miss stuff, as he had a 35.5 Whiff% and 30.2 K%. Unfortunately, some of his other metrics, more specifically the batted ball metrics, don\u2019t look as good.<\/p>\n

Despite this, the big fastball and strikeout abilities are already there, and everything else can follow suit. 2026 will see some Zach Maxwell appearances; it is just unclear exactly how often.<\/p>\n

Graham Ashcraft<\/p>\n

Like many relievers, Graham Ashcraft<\/a> started his career as a starter but transitioned to the bullpen after back-to-back underwhelming seasons. In 2025, he had a very solid season coming out of the bullpen with a 3.99 ERA in 65 1\/3 innings across 62 appearances.<\/p>\n

One look at his savant says the whole story, and the Reds should start to implement him into higher leverage situation.<\/p>\n

3.46 xERA (74th percentile)<\/p>\n

.243 xBA (44th percentile)<\/p>\n

84.8 Average Exit Velocity (99th percentile)<\/p>\n

38.3 Chase% (100th percentile)<\/p>\n

29.8 Whiff% (82nd percentile)<\/p>\n

22.5 K% (49th percentile)<\/p>\n

8.8 BB% (36th percentile)<\/p>\n

4.1 Barrel% (96th percentile)<\/p>\n

32.3 Hard-Hit% (97th percentile)<\/p>\n

58.5 GB% (96th percentile)<\/p>\n

To summarize, he limits hard contact at an elite rate, generates swings and misses at an elite rate, and generates ground balls at an elite rate. Ashcraft is and should be ready for higher-leverage situations in 2026, and is shaping up to be a pretty good reliever.<\/p>\n

Caleb Ferguson<\/p>\n

The 29-year-old lefty spent the 2025 season up in the Pacific Northwest with the Seattle Mariners and will be a welcome addition to the Reds\u2019 bullpen in 2026.<\/p>\n

Caleb Ferguson<\/a> is yet another reliever who is capable of making a ton of appearances. With a 3.58 ERA in 65 1\/3 innings over 70 appearances, Ferguson slots in as a much-needed left-handed reliever in Cincinnati, something they were missing dearly in 2025.-3.48 xERA (73rd percentile)<\/p>\n

.237 xBA (54th percentile)<\/p>\n

84.8 Average Exit Velocity (99th percentile)<\/p>\n

29.4 Chase% (63rd percentile)<\/p>\n

21.4 Whiff% (18th percentile)<\/p>\n

18.9 K% (22nd percentile)<\/p>\n

8.1 BB% (46th percentile)\u2019<\/p>\n

3.1 Barrel% (99th percentile)<\/p>\n

27.7 Hard-Hit% (100th percentile)<\/p>\n

49.7 GB% (82nd percentile)<\/p>\n

Ferguson is elite at limiting hard contact and will be a very important funky lefty for the Reds.<\/p>\n

Caleb Ferguson is a fantastic add for the Reds bullpen. While not a big strikeout thrower, he limits barrels and hard-hit contact among the best in the sport. In 2025:<\/p>\n

99th% AvgEV (88.4 MPH)
99th% Barrel% (3.1%)
100th% Hard-Hit% (27.7%)
82nd% GB% (49.7%) pic.twitter.com\/Y04Mhdt1MI<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Tobey Schulman (@tschulmanreport) December 16, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Main Photo Credit: Katie Stratman-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

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