\n\tEntering the 2026 MLB regular season, four of the Minnesota Twins\u2019 five rotation spots are filled, headlined by co-aces Pablo L\u00f3pez and Joe Ryan, popular bounceback candidate Bailey Ober, and an experienced yet still developing Simeon Woods Richardson. Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, David Festa, and Mick Abel will compete for the club\u2019s fifth spot this Spring Training. The eight-pitcher collective is one of the most achieved, talented, and depth-abundant collectives that President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey has constructed, with the 2023 septet of L\u00f3pez, Ryan, Ober, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, and Louis Varland being the only worthwhile challenger.\n<\/p>\n
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\n\tAgain, L\u00f3pez and Ryan are the two best arms among the eight pitchers listed. Understandably so, many who follow the Twins would be quick to list Ober as the third most talented arm in the collective. Since 2023 (when L\u00f3pez joined Minnesota), Ober has objectively been Minnesota\u2019s third most effective starting pitcher according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR), netting 6.6 during that three-season stretch to Ryan\u2019s 8.6 and L\u00f3pez\u2019s 9.6. Yet, after undergoing a career-worst performance last season (5.10 ERA and 4.90 FIP over 146 1\/3 innings pitched), Ober might no longer be the club\u2019s third-best starter, with Woods Richardson potentially surpassing him.\n<\/p>\n
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\n\tDespite being demoted to Triple-A from mid-May to early-June, Woods Richardson improved in his second season as a full-time starter, posting a 4.04 ERA, 4.52 FIP, and a 107-to-46 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 111 1\/3 innings. The 25-year-old stood out after the trade deadline, generating a 3.52 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and an elite 31.1% strikeout rate over 30 2\/3 innings pitched. Given Ryan\u2019s second-half struggles and L\u00f3pez\u2019s extended absence, the young righty operated as Minnesota\u2019s best starting pitcher from Aug. 1 through Sept. 30. Meanwhile, Ober sputtered, posting a 4.80 ERA, 4.32 FIP, and his average four-seam fastball velocity sitting below 90 miles per hour. Woods Richardson vastly outperformed Ober late last season, and that trend could continue in 2026.\n<\/p>\n
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\n\tThe primary reason Woods Richardson has likely usurped Ober as Minnesota\u2019s third most effective starting pitcher is the continued refinement and improvement of his arsenal. The young righty\u2019s average four-seam fastball velocity has steadily increased over his first four seasons in the majors, settling at 93.2 MPH in 2025. Ober, on the other hand, has undergone a meaningful decrease in average four-seam velo, with the pitch hovering around 91.7 MPH in 2024 (his best season) to sitting at 90.3 MPH last season. Despite still possessing a plus change, Ober\u2019s slider has also undergone a significant drop in quality, evidenced by the pitch having above-average movement in 2024 to regressing into the eighth-worst slider in baseball in 2025, according to the slider run value leaderboard at Baseball Savant. Meanwhile, Woods Richardson sported an above-average slider according to the same metric, while throwing the highest number of them on the team (Ober threw the second most).\n<\/p>\n
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\n\tObviously, much of Minnesota\u2019s rotation success will be contingent on L\u00f3pez and Ryan performing on par with or better than their career norms while remaining healthy. Still, Ober and Woods Richardson will play substantial roles in the club\u2019s ability to field a plus rotation. As noted earlier, Ober\u2019s struggles could have been the product of him pitching through injury. Still, if he continues to pitch poorly early next season and Woods Richardson continues to progress, the latter could solidify himself as Minnesota\u2019s newest frontline arm.\n<\/p>\n