When it comes to the starting rotation, the Orioles\u2019 40-man roster currently includes these names: Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, Brandon Young, Tyler Wells, Trevor Rogers, Cade Povich, Dean Kremer, and Zach Eflin.<\/p>\n
True to GM Mike Elias\u2019s promises, the Orioles have been beefing up the offense with some new bats, notably the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso himself. They even added a new starter in Baz, acquired from Tampa for a hefty passel of prospects. But if 2026 is to go well, the Orioles need to complement their rebooted offense with a return-to-form from one or more of Povich, Kremer, and Young, plus a successful return-from-injury from Baz, Bradish, Wells, and certainly, Zach Eflin.<\/p>\n
You may recall that the Orioles acquired Eflin from the Rays in July 2024. He joined a rotation helmed by Corbin Burnes, but suffering from the loss, due to injury, of Kyle Bradish, John Means and Grayson Rodriguez. Eflin was really good down the stretch, exceeding expectations with a 5-2 record, 2.60 ERA, and 149 ERA+ over nine starts. The Orioles fell flat in the playoffs, but it was hardly his fault.<\/p>\n
Eflin\u2019s dominance, paired with the loss of free agent Burnes, made him the clear choice to be Baltimore\u2019s Opening Day starter in 2025. He make that start, but then things quickly went sideways.<\/p>\n
Eflin struggled to stay healthy last year (he wasn\u2019t the only one). After just three starts, the righty went down with a right lat strain on April 9. He returned a month later but couldn\u2019t find a groove. By mid-May, this team was in freefall, and a healthy Eflin could have provided a stabilizing presence for the roster. Instead, he hit the IL again on June 30 with lower back discomfort. It\u2019d prove his last start of 2025, as he eventually underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy in August.<\/p>\n
All in all, Eflin would do four stints on the IL while pitching to a 5.93 ERA in just fourteen starts.<\/p>\n
As a pending free agent, Eflin could have been a trade chip in a season going nowhere. Instead, injuries prevented the Birds from flipping the starter for any value, and he elected free agency at season\u2019s end. Though it wasn\u2019t clear<\/a> whether a reunion was in the cards, on December 29, the Orioles announced<\/a> they were bringing him back on a one-year, $10 million deal, with a mutual option for 2027.<\/p>\n In a December Zoom call with the media, Eflin spoke candidly<\/a> about his back issues. The injury, he explained, dated back roughly a decade, but last year it had progressively worsened, and it was the first time he couldn\u2019t manage it at all. Surgeons discovered a bone spur pressing into a nerve\u2014which explained the shooting pains Eflin had been dealing with. And unlike a Tommy John recovery, which can take fourteen-to-eighteen months, Eflin said he felt immediate relief after the operation, and now says he\u2019s now in the best physical condition of his life. His first bullpen was scheduled for January 6 and his goal is to be ready for Opening Day.<\/p>\n So what to expect from this new-and-improved Zach Eflin?<\/p>\n The pessimist\u2019s version: A guy who\u2019s started more than 25 games only three of ten seasons in his career and who just posted a 5.93 ERA in an injury-shortened season.<\/p>\n The optimist\u2019s version: The guy we saw in 2023 with Tampa Bay, when he went 16-8 with a 3.50 ERA, led the American League in wins, and finished sixth in Cy Young voting. That season, his first in Tampa, Eflin set career highs in starts (31), innings (177.2), and strikeouts (186), while posting career-best marks in ERA and WHIP (1.02). Then he outdid himself the next year!<\/p>\n I think the bet here is reasonable, although a one-year deal certainly suggests caution by the front office. If the back pain really was a substantial part of why Eflin had an ERA near 6 for the 2025 season\u2014his time missed strongly suggests it was\u2014and it was corrected by a reasonably simple surgery, then there\u2019s a plausible story where 2026 looks for him a lot more like 2023.<\/p>\n Plus the Orioles don\u2019t need Eflin to be their ace this time around. Bradish, Rogers, and Baz should occupy the top spots. Guys like Eflin, Wells, and Kremer can fill out the rotation. In that role, the pressure is lower. A healthy Eflin as your No. 4 starter? Teams would kill for that.<\/p>\n This doesn\u2019t mean the Orioles should stop looking for pitching. They shouldn\u2019t. Free agents like Framber Valdez would obviously upgrade the rotation. But a healthy and effective Eflin represents a scenario where the Orioles might not need to make a splashy signing to have a good rotation. If he bounces back, if Bradish returns well from Tommy John, if Baz fulfills his potential\u2014that\u2019s a rotation that can compete in October. The margin for error is thin, but it exists.<\/p>\n Eflin himself seems to understand the stakes. \u201c[I didn\u2019t want] to be the guy they traded for and get hurt and not be the guy that they wanted,\u201d he said<\/a>. \u201cThat really weighed on me.\u201d He wants to prove something. He\u2019s motivated. And for the first time in years, he\u2019s pain-free.<\/p>\n