{"id":536000,"date":"2026-01-24T11:08:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T11:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/536000\/"},"modified":"2026-01-24T11:08:24","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T11:08:24","slug":"zips-forecasts-sunny-2026-for-mets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/536000\/","title":{"rendered":"ZiPS Forecasts Sunny 2026 for Mets"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Mets have an \u201cextremely solid\u201d lineup, better starting pitching than last year and an above-average bullpen, according to ZiPS projections released Thursday on FanGraphs<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cStarting with two players, Juan Soto<\/a> and Francisco Lindor<\/a> make up for a lot of sins,\u201d wrote Dan Szymborski, who developed the projection system. \u201cBut there aren\u2019t really a lot of sins in the lineup.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

ZiPS uses statistics from the previous four years for players aged 24-38, giving more weight to more recent seasons. It also uses aging trends to make projections and is considered one of the more accurate predictors in the baseball industry.<\/p>\n

Bo Bichette<\/a>, per ZiPS, should be more valuable at third base than at shortstop. The forecast calls for rebound years from Luis Robert Jr.<\/a> and Marcus Semien<\/a>, a good season for Francisco Alvarez<\/a> and likes the value that backup catcher Luis Torrens<\/a> provides from throwing out runners.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe DH situation isn\u2019t amazing, with Mark Vientos<\/a> getting the bulk of the plate appearances there, but only a few teams really get a ton of WAR from that spot anyway,\u201d Szymborski wrote.<\/p>\n

ZiPS offers three near age comps for every player. Soto\u2019s 27-year-old comps are Rusty Staub<\/a>, Carl Yastrzemski<\/a> and Barry Bonds<\/a>, who won the MVP at age 27. One of Lindor\u2019s 32-year-old comps is his double-play partner in Semien, who was 32 in 2023 when he finished third in AL MVP voting for the Texas Rangers.<\/p>\n

A few other interesting comps: Carson Benge<\/a> (Bernie Williams<\/a> and Andrew McCutchen<\/a>), Vientos (Kevin Mitchell<\/a> and Jeff Kent<\/a>) and Alvarez (Todd Zeile<\/a>).<\/p>\n

\u201cZiPS expects the Mets\u2019 pitching to be pretty good, giving the staff a bit of a bump from last year\u2019s projections,\u201d Szymborski wrote. \u201cAnd that was before the trade for Peralta, who was the Brewers\u2019 most valuable pitcher.\u201d<\/p>\n

Peralta, 29, is compared to Jack Morris<\/a>, Bob Lemon<\/a> and Chan Ho Park<\/a>. Nolan McLean<\/a>\u2018s comps are Sonny Gray<\/a>, Floyd Wooldridge<\/a> and Freddy Garcia<\/a>. ZiPS likes many of the starters, including David Peterson<\/a>, Kodai Senga<\/a> and Sean Manaea<\/a>, who all struggled in the second half of 2025. The projection is \u201cless excited\u201d for Christian Scott<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u201cZiPS view the Mets as having an above-average bullpen, but one that\u2019s below baseball\u2019s elite,\u201d Szymborski wrote, who added that he is concerned about Devin Williams<\/a>\u2018 ability to come back from a poor 2025. ZiPS likes Luke Weaver<\/a> and Brooks Raley<\/a>, but the balance of the bullpen is \u201cmeh,\u201d except for maybe Huascar Brazob\u00e1n<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Overall, the Mets look good, a \u201chighly competitive team in the NL East, and one the league shouldn\u2019t dismiss.\u201d But Szymborski also added a word of caution about projections \u2013 at least for Mets fans.<\/p>\n

\u201cRooting for the Mets is existential; you go into every season with hope, but an unquenchable feeling that something will go horribly or terribly wrong,\u201d he wrote. \u201cMeaning as a Mets fan does not come from celebrating the team\u2019s achievements, but the act of enduring and returning, year after year, with the knowledge that preparation offers no escape. Mets fans essentially become annotators of doomed worlds.\u201d<\/p>\n

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