Every year, a handful of players ranked outside the top 10 in their respective farm systems take meaningful steps forward to improve their stock and vault up prospect rankings. Part of the fun is trying to identify those breakouts before it happens. So today, we\u2019re identifying Astros prospects who have the potential to make a jump in 2026.<\/p>\n
To qualify, a player must rank outside the organization\u2019s preseason Top 10 prospects.\u00a0All scouting reports are from Baseball America\u2019s 2026 Prospect handbook, which you can purchase here<\/a>.<\/p>\n You can find Top 30 prospect rankings\u00a0for all teams here<\/a>\u00a0and all breakout candidates here<\/a>.<\/p>\n Breakout Prospects<\/p>\n Lucas Spence<\/a>, OF<\/p>\n BA Grade\/Risk: 50\/Average Track Record: Spence spent two seasons at Black Hawk (Ill.) JC as a two-way player, earning NJCAA all-region honors. He transferred to Southern Illinois-Edwardsville for his junior season and hit .385\/.473\/.552 over 56 games while making 14 appearances on the mound. Spence went unselected in the 2024 draft but signed with the Astros shortly after. He jumped three levels in his first full season hitting .244\/.368\/.403 and reaching Double-A by early August. <\/p>\n Scouting Report: Spence is a plus athlete with little remaining projection. He shows average bat-to-ball ability with plus swing decisions, showing the ability to get on-base while limiting swing and miss due to his selectivity. Spence struggles to hit lefthanded pitching and does his damage against righties. Spence shows a tick better than average raw power but it plays more like gap power in games. A flatter swing path leads to lots of line drives and hard, top-spun groundballs. Spence did add more lift as the season progressed, slashing his groundball rate as he climbed to Double-A. With solid exit velocity data there\u2019s a chance that improved angles lead to average power. Spence is a plus runner bordering on plus-plus. He flies out the box and pushes outfielders to hustle on balls to the gaps. Spence\u2019s speed translates to the field where he\u2019s an above-average outfielder capable of playing all three outfield positions. He also has a plus arm and uncorks beautiful on-line throws. <\/p>\n The Future: Spence is a future strong-side platoon bat who should move all around the outfield.<\/p>\n Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Field: 55 | Arm: 60<\/p>\n
Adjusted Grade: 40<\/p>\n