Oh, how things can change in 3 \u00bd years. Heck, how things can change in 11 months.<\/p>\n
Thursday\u2019s trade of MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers for five prospects not only marked the end of the Nationals\u2019 previous rebuild, but also the beginning of the next one.<\/p>\n
As hard as it may be for fans to hear after four years of rebuilding, new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni admitted as much when he spoke to the media over a Zoom call Thursday night to discuss the deal that has now put the Nats even further away from contention.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think we\u2019ve got to be honest with ourselves,\u201d Toboni said. \u201cThe truth is \u2013 and I don\u2019t think this is a mystery to the fan base, the media or anyone \u2013 we lost 96 games last year. To turn it around in one year and make the playoffs … not to say it can\u2019t be done, but it\u2019s a challenge. What we want to do is make sure we build this really strong foundation, so when we do start to push chips in, we can win for an extended period of time. That fits with that strategy for us.\u201d<\/p>\n
That\u2019s a harsh reality from the new man in charge, and a direct contrast from what fans heard the previous regime say ahead of last season.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m excited about this group,\u201d former manager Davey Martinez said at the start of spring training last February. \u201cThis young core of guys we\u2019ve got, these are the guys we really feel could be here for a long time. We made some unbelievable acquisitions that\u2019s going to help us this year. With those veteran guys and the young core we have, this year I think we\u2019re going to have a really good year.\u201d<\/p>\n
Former president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Rizzo echoed that sentiment, also saying at the time: \u201cI think we\u2019ve improved the club. I think we\u2019ll go from a competitive team last year to a real tough team to play this year.\u201d<\/p>\n
While maybe not a direct declaration that the club anticipated\u00a0winning season, those quotes certainly put more expectations on the 2025 Nationals than perhaps were necessary. And sure enough, last year\u2019s team was not up to the task of meeting them, costing both Rizzo and Martinez their jobs before the All-Star break, and leading to the hiring of Toboni and the start of this latest rebuild.<\/p>\n
We\u2019ll also be left to wonder: If the previous two men in charge had not set such expectations, and instead reiterated the need for one more building year, would they have kept their jobs? With one more year of development in 2025, would the Nationals finally be ready to compete again this year?<\/p>\n
Of course, that is now a moot point, with the organization taking a sharp pivot in another direction. One that fans may be frustrated with because that direction is seemingly backwards.<\/p>\n
There are two sides to every deal: One in the baseball sense of the organization and one in the emotional sense of the fan base. Believe it or not, both can be true.<\/p>\n
Trading Gore made the most sense for the Nationals\u2019 baseball future.<\/p>\n
As Toboni noted, the Nats are likely not going to win a lot of games this year. Fans may argue that is even more true now that the staff ace is gone. It’s hard to argue with that, but bear with me.<\/p>\n
While it has some intriguing pieces, the Nats\u2019 farm system isn\u2019t very strong and needs replenishing.<\/p>\n
Gore has two years left of team control, making him more valuable in a trade than he would be at this year\u2019s trade deadline or next offseason. Plus, he\u2019s a Scott Boras client, meaning he\u2019s unlikely to sign a contract extension until he tests the free agent market after the 2027 season.<\/p>\n
From a pure baseball standpoint, this move made the most sense considering where Toboni sees the current state of the organization. That being said, he wasn\u2019t just going to give up the left-hander for the sake of giving him up.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe were going to hold a really high bar because we think the world of MacKenzie as a player,\u201d Toboni said. \u201cAnd if a team met it or exceeded it, great. But we were comfortable holding him \u2026 the market started to move a little bit this past week.<\/p>\n
“If you asked me a week ago was this going to happen, I probably would have said no. But over the course of the last week, just momentum built and finally got to a spot where it made sense for us.”<\/p>\n
Toboni got five prospects back for one player. On the face of it, that\u2019s a win for a rebuilding Nationals organization. Is this five-player haul the same as the five-player haul Rizzo got for Juan Soto in 2022? No. That was a generational group of prospects \u2013 one that Gore was a part of \u2013 for a generational talent in one of the biggest trades in Major League Baseball history.<\/p>\n
But did the Nats get back scrubs? Also no. All five of those prospects were ranked in the Rangers\u2019 top 20, per MLB Pipeline. Three were in the top 15. And two were in the top 10, with shortstop Gavin Fien being Texas\u2019 second-ranked prospect.<\/p>\n
The five have now been added the Nationals\u2019 top 30 (keeping in mind MLB Pipeline has yet to update its top-30 rankings for all teams and will do so ahead of the season):<\/p>\n
5. Gavin Fien (SS)
11. Alejandro Rosario (RHP)
12. Devin Fitz-Gerald (INF)
17. Yeremy Cabrera (OF)
24. Abimelec Ortiz (1B)<\/p>\n
Fien was the No. 12 overall pick in last summer’s MLB Draft, giving the Nats two players from that class’ top 12 alongside No. 1 pick Eli Willits. With a projected move to third base for Fien, the Nationals\u2019 future left side of the infield could be filled by two top-12 picks from the 2025 Draft.<\/p>\n
Farm system rankings have not been updated recently, but pundits around the industry believe this group of prospects elevates the Nats to just outside or maybe inside the top 10 in the sport.<\/p>\n
But how do you sell the potential of prospects who are two to three years away from the major leagues to a weary fan base that has suffered a lot of losing since winning a World Series title in 2019?<\/p>\n
That leads us to the other side of this deal that can also be true: Fans are frustrated and tired.<\/p>\n
Nats fans were promised better times ahead on the day Rizzo dealt Soto to the Padres. Those days have yet to come to fruition. And now one of the pieces that was supposed to help deliver on those better times has been traded away for yet another promise that is to be determined.<\/p>\n
After a stretch of eight seasons between 2012-19 when the Nationals were one of the winningest teams in baseball, they have now endured a stretch of losing that is about to match that time frame and probably exceed it.<\/p>\n
So what\u2019s Toboni\u2019s message to frustrated fans?<\/p>\n
\u201cI hear it, and I empathize with it,\u201d he said. \u201cThere would be part of me \u2013 I think back to my 15-year-old self; I was a Giants fan at the time \u2013 bummed to see a player of this caliber leaving, and a leader on the team and that sort of thing.<\/p>\n
\u201cBut I would paint a much more optimistic picture. I think the excitement that comes with these players we\u2019re getting in return exceeds the disappointment of seeing MacKenzie go. That\u2019s just me talking as the head of baseball operations now. I\u2019m really excited about the package we\u2019ve gotten in return. And I hope fans see it in the same way.\u201d<\/p>\n
Time might prove him\u00a0right. But it’s hard for fans to see it that same way right now.<\/p>\n
\u201cI read this reasoning to my 7-year-old. He just gave me a blank stare,\u201d a fan replied to me on X, formerly Twitter.<\/p>\n