Thanks to the World Baseball Classic, Major League Baseball is even closer than I thought, as games themselves start on February 20th. I don\u2019t feel as insane about drafting now! By the time you read this, I will have done my first non-slow event, a \u201cDraft Champions Auction\u201d. It\u2019s a 15 team auction until you fill your 23 man \u201cstarting\u201d roster, then a 27 round DC slow draft withno FAAB.<\/p>\n
But enough about me. Let\u2019s continue on with our journey through ADP risers and fallers. Last week, I looked at the first 5 rounds of NFBC 15 team drafts. Today, I will continue on with rounds 6-10, which corresponds to players going on average from Pick 76 to Pick 150. I am comparing Average Draft Positions from Draft Champions completed by the end of 2025 to the last 14 drafts. Some of those last 14 drafts may still be in progress, as they are slow drafts. These are all draft and hold leagues with no FAAB.<\/p>\n
Risers<\/p>\n
Emilio Pagan<\/a> 149.73-93.1<\/p>\n Abner Uribe<\/a> 169.13-115.7<\/p>\n Ryan Walker<\/a> 215.19-147.8<\/p>\n Pete Fairbanks<\/a> 127.11-91.2<\/p>\n Daniel Palencia<\/a> 150.27-108.8<\/p>\n Jeff Hoffman<\/a> 120.51-92.8<\/p>\n Dennis Santana<\/a> 158.59-134<\/p>\n Kenley Jansen<\/a> 125.83-107.8<\/p>\n You may notice a theme here! Closers remain on the rise. Ryan Walker is the last guy in this pack, and his ADP is now about 20th off the board for closers. He represents pretty much the lowest drafted guy who we (the community as a whole) think will safely at least start the season with the closer job. Seranthony Dominguez signed to close with the White Sox just on Friday, and he will likely settle in at the back of this pack, so that makes 21. Beyond that, there\u2019s pretty much just spec guys. So there\u2019s an obvious supply and demand dynamic here. 30 MLB teams divided by 15 Fantasy teams equals 2 closers per team (I never said there would be no math). Once closers start going off the board, they often keep going off the board since the shelves start to empty as quickly as those at my local Shop Rite ahead of this weekend\u2019s storm. Yes, some teams punt saves, but it\u2019s a less common strategy in Draft and Holds without FAAB. And it\u2019s not a real winning strategy either in contests with Overall prizes. So yada yada yada, each draft has a different dynamic, but once they start to go, they all go.<\/p>\n Of course, this dynamic existed all offseason, so why the lift over time? Well, in some cases, they were free agents who got secure, seemingly closer gigs (Pagan, Fairbanks, Jansen). In other cases, they were at risk of their team signing someone else, but that never happened (Walker, Palencia, Hoffman, and Santana). And finally, there\u2019s Abner Uribe. Over the course of the winter, the market has become convinced that he will close for the Brewers over Trevor Megill. He\u2019s an interesting case as he has better skills than this whole group, as he rocked a 1.67 ERA with a 30.2% K% and 13% SwStr%. He\u2019ll pop about 50 picks or so if he definitely has the job.<\/p>\n Salvador Perez<\/a> 105.91-94.2<\/p>\n Maikel Garcia<\/a> 89.19-79.5<\/p>\n I bunch these two Royals even though they could not be more different. Father Time will catch Salvy someday, but it\u2019s not here yet. He popped 30 homers in 2025, with 100 RBI\u2019s and a\u00a0 14.7% Barrel%. He\u2019s never been a good OBP guy, but that does not matter enormously to us as long as the Royals keep playing him at 1B or DH when he\u2019s not catching. He\u2019s also slow as molasses with 3rd percentile sprint speed.\u00a0<\/p>\n Maikel Garcia is a super interesting real life (and fantasy) player as he\u2019s a 3B with 63rd percentile sprint speed that steals bags (23 last year, 37 in 2024) and hits the ball hard (79th percentile EV). He gets it in the air relatively infrequently, though his 9.7 LA last year was an increase from his 6.4 LA in 2024. He did pop a career high 16 homers last year.\u00a0<\/p>\n So why are they both lifting? It might be thanks to the Royals moving in the fences. It could ding Garcia a shade in Avg as he hit .286 last year, but there\u2019s also a chance it turns him into a 20-30 guy batting leadoff in a pretty good lineup. Salvy, it probably just means more homers. He hit .236 last year, so you\u2019re just hoping he doesn\u2019t hurt your Avg much already.<\/p>\n Ceddanne Rafaela<\/a> 141.36-127.2<\/p>\n The Red Sox CF-2B is a terrific real life player as he\u2019s an elite fielder all over the top of the defensive spectrum. And he\u2019s still just 25 with an interesting power-speed profile. He\u2019s going to basically play every day as long as he\u2019s healthy. But he\u2019s just not a great actual hitter, as he had a .304 wOBA last year, and he\u2019s projected in that range again. Plus, he will bat near the end of the Red Sox order. Yeah its a good lineup, but that will obviously put a cap on his counting stats. He had 16 homers and 20 steals last year, so we can dream on 20-25, but it will come with a slight minus Avg., and likely subpar runs and RBI\u2019s for a high pick. I love the upside, but probably at more like his early offseason cost.<\/p>\n Fallers<\/p>\n Oneil Cruz<\/a> 91.47-111.1<\/p>\n Speaking of interesting power speed guys with question marks, I bring you Oneil Cruz. He hit 20 homers and swiped 38 bags in 2025, but was a .200 BA landmine with a 32% K%. I am kind of surprised he has dropped this much, as the only thing that has happened since early offseason is the Pirates actually improving the lineup around him. But I still would not draft him here. He is likely a strictly platoon bat as he has a .172 career Avg and 54 wRC+ vs. lefties. The tools remain forever tantalizing, and I can see the case for taking a shot, but you really need to pair him with a solid Avg base, not to mention the lack of PAs will ding his counting stats.<\/p>\n