{"id":541275,"date":"2026-01-27T22:20:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T22:20:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/541275\/"},"modified":"2026-01-27T22:20:24","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T22:20:24","slug":"what-type-of-hitter-will-fernando-tatis-jr-be-in-2026-for-padres","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/541275\/","title":{"rendered":"What type of hitter will Fernando Tatis Jr. be in 2026 for Padres?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Credit: AP Photo
\nFernando Tatis Jr.<\/a> is coming off his healthiest season to date. His offensive production was strong in 2025; however, many projection models suggest he can reach new heights.<\/p>\n

Fernando Tatis Jr. eliminated many \u2018what ifs\u2019 in 2025 by playing a career-high 155 games for the Padres. He accumulated 6.1 WAR, ranking as the tenth-most valuable player in the sport under the metric. Much of his prestigious ranking can be attributed to his defense, which earned him his second Platinum Glove Award in 2025. He became only the sixth player in MLB history to win the award multiple times.<\/p>\n

However, his offensive contributions didn\u2019t quite reach the industry-leading threshold as his fielding did. He placed outside the top-30 in OPS, a metric that effectively mixes a player\u2019s on-base ability and power production. While his .814 mark is still above average, it wasn\u2019t what he flashed in his monster 2021 campaign, or his late-season heroics in 2024.<\/p>\n

His career development and challenges<\/p>\n

Fernando Tatis Jr. has jumped many hurdles to become the hitter he is now. He\u2019s dealt with injuries of all types, multiple surgeries, and loads of mechanical adjustments. However, no hurdle has been bigger than the 80-game PED suspension that kept him off the field for 565 days.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s easy to look at Tatis Jr. and reminisce over what he once was at the plate. 42 home runs, a .282 batting average, and a .975 OPS is dream-like production. However, a 565-day leave is capable of degrading a player\u2019s entire career. A long absence from the batter\u2019s box isn\u2019t easy to come back from, as hitters need to readjust to seeing major league pitching again.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Since returning, Tatis Jr. has actually improved his bat-to-ball ability year after year. After striking out 28% of the time in 2021, he reduced that clip all the way down to 18.7% in 2025. He made plenty of changes to his swing, quieting both his hands and lower half to hone in on sharper movements.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s missing?<\/p>\n

Home runs. The long ball has eluded Tatis Jr. ever since he returned in 2023. His totals of 25, 21, and recently 25 homers don\u2019t resemble the thunderous swing that he flashed in 2021.<\/p>\n

Now, \u201chome runs\u201d are not to be confused with pure power ability. Tatis Jr\u2019s advanced metrics indicate that his muscle hasn\u2019t gone anywhere. His average exit velocity of 93.3 MPH landed him in the 95th percentile of qualified hitters in 2025. He also hit over half of his batted balls at 95 MPH or harder. In 2024, he reached a max exit velocity of 116.7 MPH, which set a new career-high.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no doubt that the power is still within him. It\u2019s truly only a matter of elevating the ball and putting it over the fence instead of on the ground. As his contact has increased steadily, his average launch angle has been trending in the opposite direction. In 2021, the ball came off his bat at a 13.8\u00b0 launch angle, on average. In 2025, he fell all the way to a 9.4\u00b0 launch angle.<\/p>\n

Tatis Jr\u2019s swing has flattened out significantly, as he no longer looks to \u2018golf\u2019 balls out of the yard. Nowadays, he opts for a line drive approach that struggles to lift anything that isn\u2019t located center-cut. If he wants to return to MVP form, he\u2019ll likely need to alter his swing path.<\/p>\n

Fernando Tat\u00eds Jr. quietly improved in several areas in 2025.<\/p>\n

2024 \u27a1\ufe0f 2025
Zone Contact: 80.4%\u27a1\ufe0f82.3%
Contact: 71.9%\u27a1\ufe0f73%
Chase: 28.2%\u27a1\ufe0f24.4%
BB: 7.3%\u27a1\ufe0f12.9%
K: 21.9%\u27a1\ufe0f18.7%<\/p>\n

All of the 2025 metrics above were career-best marks for Tat\u00eds.pic.twitter.com\/MSWUlyzrv6<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Eric Cross<\/a> (@EricCrossMLB) January 8, 2026<\/a><\/p>\n

His 2026 projection<\/p>\n

As it stands, FanGraphs projects Tatis Jr. to eclipse 30 HR and hit .275 at the dish in 2026. Despite falling shy of the 30-homer mark in three straight years, multiple projection models believe that he\u2019ll find the missing power stroke.<\/p>\n

In terms of his larger scale projection, FanGraphs projects an .862 OPS and 5.6 WAR-season from Tatis Jr. Additionally, he projects to have a 142 wRC+\u2014 which is a metric that aims to capture a player\u2019s run creation ability, with the league average coming at 100. A mark of 142 would be approaching two standard deviations above league average, an elite level of offensive output.<\/p>\n

However, there\u2019s still much to be done for Tatis Jr. to reach that point. His second half of the 2025 season presents concern for his bold 2026 outlook. Tatis Jr. only clubbed nine home runs in the second half, which included a 27-game home run drought that plagued his production over the summer months. Although he ramped up down the stretch, it\u2019s alarming to see such a powerful hitter fail to deposit one into the seats over the span of nearly a month.<\/p>\n

However, there\u2019s still plenty of reason to believe in a power resurgence. He\u2019s still just 27 years old, although he\u2019s been with the team for seven seasons. He\u2019s still as explosive as ever and has plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments.<\/p>\n

Tatis Jr. also has a great opportunity to benefit from the newly hired hitting coach, Steven Souza Jr.<\/a> Souza is replacing the contact-oriented Victor Rodriguez<\/a>, who was held responsible in part for the Padres team-wide inability to produce home runs. Souza Jr. is a recently retired MLB player who spent time as a special assistant in the Rays organization. He is expected to bring an emphasis on power hitting to San Diego, which could benefit a player like Tatis Jr.<\/p>\n

When Fernando Tatis, Jr. hit a ball COMPLETELY out of Dodger Stadium. pic.twitter.com\/QotUYsugR4<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Baseball\u2019s Greatest Moments (@BBGreatMoments) October 29, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Conclusion<\/p>\n

The range of outcomes for Fernando Tatis Jr. in 2o26 is certainly wide. With his raw talent, yet untapped swing potential, it\u2019s tough to foresee what we\u2019ll see out of him. While there are warning signs, there\u2019s also a fresh slew of opportunities for Tatis Jr. as the offseason nears a close.<\/p>\n

Tatis Jr. will get an early taste of top-level competition as as early March. The Dominican Baseball Federation announced that he, along with teammate Manny Machado,<\/a> will be representing the Dominican Republic in the 2026 World Baseball Classic. The tournament is expected to be loaded with both MLB and overseas talent, which should provide Tatis Jr. with a healthy tune-up prior to the 2026 MLB season.<\/p>\n

\"Willy<\/p>\n

A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he\u2019ll pursue a major in sports journalism.<\/p>\n

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