{"id":541500,"date":"2026-01-28T01:07:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T01:07:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/541500\/"},"modified":"2026-01-28T01:07:14","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T01:07:14","slug":"make-or-break-year-nolan-gorman","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/541500\/","title":{"rendered":"Make Or Break Year: Nolan Gorman"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Cardinals have more firmly committed to a retool than they did last offseason. They treated last season primarily as an evaluation year but weren\u2019t as aggressive in selling off veteran pieces as they\u2019ve been this winter. Unfortunately, they didn\u2019t see any development from former first-round picks and top prospects\u00a0Jordan Walker<\/a> and\u00a0Nolan Gorman<\/a>. They\u2019re in a similar position now as they were 12 months ago, though the pressure is probably ramping up on both players.<\/p>\n

MLBTR examined Walker\u2019s situation<\/a> as the \u201925 season was nearing its end. He\u2019ll enter camp as the everyday right fielder but needs to take a major step forward if he\u2019s to project as a regular on the 2027 team. There might be even more urgency for Gorman, who is two years older than Walker and has more than 1500 major league plate appearances under his belt. He\u2019ll turn 26 in May. If there\u2019s a breakout season in the cards, it probably needs to be now.<\/p>\n

The opportunity should be there. After more than a year of trade rumors, the Cards lined up the\u00a0Nolan Arenado<\/a> deal a couple weeks ago. Third base is open, at least in the short term. Top prospect\u00a0JJ Wetherholt<\/a> is on the doorstep of the majors and may even play his way onto the Opening Day roster. There\u2019s a good chance the Cardinals trade\u00a0Brendan Donovan<\/a> within the next two months, though, which would open second base for Wetherholt. That\u2019d leave Gorman competing with Thomas Saggese<\/a> for playing time at the hot corner.<\/p>\n

Saggese has a strong minor league track record, but his very aggressive approach probably leaves him in a utility role. Gorman has flashed a higher ceiling, yet it\u2019s a couple seasons in the rearview. He hit 14 home runs in 89 games as a rookie, then slugged 27 longballs with a .236\/.328\/.478 slash line in year two. Gorman entered the 2024 season as a .232\/.317\/.454 hitter with 41 homers in his first season and a half as a big leaguer.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

There was a significant amount of swing-and-miss, but Gorman\u2019s power was enough to fit in the middle third of a lineup. That hasn\u2019t been the case over the past two seasons. Gorman has taken roughly 800 trips to the plate in that time. His batting average and on-base percentage have dropped by 30 points each, while his slugging mark has fallen by more than 50 points. Gorman carries a .204\/.284\/.385 slash going back to the beginning of 2024.<\/p>\n

His general profile is much the same as it was early in his career. The lefty hitter has a reasonably patient approach and works a decent number of walks, but his pure bat-to-ball ability is subpar. That\u2019s probably not going to change as he gets into his late 20s. He needs to do damage when he does make contact. A combined 33 homers over his past 218 games isn\u2019t enough.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

Gorman battled a couple injuries last year. He missed time early in the season with a hamstring strain and was sidelined by lower back pain around the All-Star Break. The actual injured list stint was minimal, but it\u2019s possible he was playing at less than full strength for the final two months. He finished the season with a .187\/.278\/.323 line while striking out at a near-40% rate in 45 games after returning from the IL stint. Gorman has battled intermittent back discomfort for a few seasons.<\/p>\n

Whatever the cause, Gorman\u2019s bat speed has gone slightly in the wrong direction. He\u2019s still pulling a lot of balls to right field, which is where he\u2019s most likely to hit for power, but it\u2019s not with the same authority as he did in 2023. He also dramatically scaled back how often he swings at the first pitch and hunts pitches in the heart of the plate. That earned him a few more walks than he took the year before, but it\u2019s not ideal for putting him in positions to drive the ball.<\/p>\n

Gorman has between three and four years of service time. He\u2019s playing on a $2.655MM arbitration salary. He still has a couple minor league option years remaining, so he\u2019s not on the roster bubble right now. A third straight replacement level performance would make him a likely non-tender next offseason, however.<\/p>\n

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry, Imagn Images.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Cardinals have more firmly committed to a retool than they did last offseason. They treated last season…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":541501,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5,4,1893],"class_list":{"0":"post-541500","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-mlb","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-nolan-gorman"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115970051093488580","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/541500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=541500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/541500\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/541501"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=541500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=541500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=541500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}