{"id":543354,"date":"2026-01-29T02:15:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T02:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/543354\/"},"modified":"2026-01-29T02:15:16","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T02:15:16","slug":"phillies-trea-turner-receives-troubling-prediction-for-2026-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/543354\/","title":{"rendered":"Phillies’ Trea Turner Receives Troubling Prediction for 2026 Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Philadelphia Phillies<\/a> are heavily relying on their star core to continue producing at a high level during the 2026 season, especially given the many question marks already in the lineup. Unfortunately, one member of that core is being predicted to take a step back next season.<\/p>\n

FanGraphs\u2019 famous ZiPS<\/a> projection model is not as high on Trea Turner heading into 2026, compared to the number he put up a season ago.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

The veteran shortstop had an incredible year at the plate, recording a slash line of .304\/.355\/.457, including 53 extra base hits. Turner\u2019s batting average even led the National League. All of that came out to a 121 OPS+, which is tied for his highest as a member of the Phillies, and his best since the 2022 season.<\/p>\n

However, ZiPS predicts Turner will experience some regression in 2026. The model is projecting Turner to finish next season with .285\/.337\/.443 slash line, which would come out to a 112 OPS+.<\/p>\n

\"Jun<\/p>\n

Jun 27, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Philadelphia Phillies shortstop Trea Turner (7) hits a home run against the Atlanta Braves in the ninth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images<\/p>\n

Even Dan Szymbrowski was a little shocked by these totals.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are worries lurking on the horizon, however. Trea Turner had what was certainly his best season in Philadelphia, but he\u2019s entering his mid-30s, a very dangerous time for a middle infielder. I was actually surprised to see the drop-off in the ZiPS projection for Turner, but noticed that Steamer was basically projecting the same thing,\u201d wrote the analyst.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

There are a couple of key takeaways from the numbers the computer is calculating.<\/p>\n

First, it\u2019s incredibly hard for a player to have a repeat season of a batting average over .300. Even Turner, who\u2019s known as a contact hitter, hasn\u2019t done this since back in his days with the Washington Nationals. Some regression on that front wouldn\u2019t be shocking and is probably expected.<\/p>\n

The other is that, even with the drop in batting average, Turner\u2019s on-base percentage remains strong, which is really what the Phillies need, assuming he\u2019ll be hitting in one of the top three spots in the lineup. Turner had a walk rate of 6.7 percent a season ago, and the model predicts it will be about the same next year.<\/p>\n

ZiPS is definitely projecting for Turner to take a step back in 2026, but even if he records the model\u2019s projected numbers, he\u2019d still be a key piece to Philadelphia\u2019s success.<\/p>\n

Advertisement<\/p>\n

Phillies Roundtable also offers a fan community and message board. We\u2019d love to have you join us to talk all things Phillies. Click the \u201cJoin\u201d button at the top of the page to join our community for free.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Philadelphia Phillies are heavily relying on their star core to continue producing at a high level during…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":543355,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2397],"tags":[46,5,4,144,25,4216,40,1713,71],"class_list":{"0":"post-543354","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-philadelphia-phillies","8":"tag-atlanta-braves","9":"tag-baseball","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-philadelphia","12":"tag-philadelphia-phillies","13":"tag-philadelphiaphillies","14":"tag-phillies","15":"tag-trea-turner","16":"tag-washington-nationals"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115975981369920208","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=543354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543354\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/543355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=543354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=543354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=543354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}