In the vote for the #4 prospect, Quinn Mathews did not win by a lot. It was a two-man race and Joshua Baez was only 14 total votes short of Mathews\u2019 total. He received over double the votes of the third-place vote getter. It is not a hard and fast rule, but it was a pretty safe bet that Baez would win this vote and comfortably. That is exactly what happened. He received over half the votes in a poll with eight other players. The current list stands at:<\/p>\n
JJ WetherholtLiam DoyleRainiel RodriguezQuinn MathewsJoshua Baez<\/p>\n
Last week, I ran a comparable player poll of two players I was considering adding to this poll. I in fact told you that I would add the player who won the poll, which I did do. This is maybe the opposite of that. There\u2019s a certain class of prospect who could be just about anywhere on a Cardinals\u2019 list, including well out of the top 20. Not top 10, but after that. And it\u2019s especially hard to know who a relatively random collection of Cardinals fans will think is the 19th best prospect, when another site might think them the 50th best prospect. On the flipside, some site thinks a prospect is the 19th best prospect and this crowd might not give them a single vote if I put them on the voting. So occasionally, I need to put those kinds of prospects in this section to know if I need to start considering adding once we hit the 10th vote or if I can ignore them completely.<\/p>\n
I try to find a hook when I place two players in this section. There needs to be something similar about the two players. A lot of times, I try to just compare two players who play the same position. Today\u2019s two players are similar only because they are both probably going to be in Memphis and both have a decent shot of making their MLB debut. That\u2019s just about the only similar thing about them.<\/p>\n
Blaze Jordan\u2019s big selling point, to be honest, is his age. Drafted out of high school, he\u2019s been a professional since he was drafted in 2020, and yet he turned 23 a little over a month ago. He already has over 300 PAs in AAA. That gives him time. He is essentially a right-handed Alec Burleson, but a Burleson who probably can\u2019t play 3B instead of probably can\u2019t play OF. Jordan also has more questions about his contact quality than Burly did. But free swinger who makes a lot of contact who would benefit from being more selective? Yeah that\u2019s Blaze.<\/p>\n
Bryan Torres\u2019 big selling point is his performance and his versatility. He can play anywhere, and he has. His pro career started as a catcher, so he would probably even be the emergency catcher. He destroyed AAA, albeit with a huge BABIP and not a lot of power. The question is really if his stats will translate, which is a question because of his age: he\u2019s 28 next season. Why does that matter? Well, 26 and 27-year-olds hit in AAA all the time, it is a little bit more rare that they continue hitting in the majors. Nothing represents this more than the wide range of projections he has, as high as 108 from ZiPS and as low as 77 by THE BAT. (With 88, 93, and 101 in between – I don\u2019t think I\u2019ve ever seen such variety)<\/p>\n
As I said above, I ran a comparable player poll in which I told you I would add the winner of the head-to-head. Which means Brycen Mautz is getting added to the voting. As you will see below, he had a truly excellent season in AA. He is on the 40 man and stands a good chance of making his MLB debut in 2026. I mentioned in the past two votes that I was going to use the advantage of getting to add two players by using last year\u2019s list for one of the players – a player I pretty much know how this crowd feels about – and also add a player that has never been voted on.<\/p>\n
So in a way, I\u2019m kind of skirting that when I call Mautz the player where I have last year\u2019s list as a frame of reference. He was not actually on last year\u2019s list. He was on the 2024 list. But most importantly, I did directly say that he was going to be in this vote, so he certainly fits the known quantity addition more than the unknown quantity. The unknown quantity is recent trade acquisition Jesus Baez. No idea how high you guys are going to be on Baez, but he\u2019ll probably land in the top 20, so feels like a good time to add him.<\/p>\n
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244\/.327\/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting (FG): 30\/45 Hit, 35\/50 Game Power, 50\/55 Raw Power, 40\/40 Speed, 40\/45 Fielding<\/p>\n
So this was not intentional – I only realized after I had decided to add him – but Jesus Baez replacing Joshua Baez is kind of funny. There\u2019s going to be a Baez in the voting for quite a few votes. It actually kind of worked out. It may have been confusing if Jesus and Joshua were ever on the same vote, and I\u2019m kind of kicking myself for not thinking of replacing Joshua with Jesus before, because yeah them being on the same ballot would be confusing. Again total accident.<\/p>\n
I listed Baez as an infielder and not a specific position, because I realized I didn\u2019t know what position to put. He plays SS the most, but nobody really thinks he\u2019ll stay at SS. The Cardinals actually played him at DH more than either 2B or 3B. That\u2019s not to suggest he\u2019ll land at DH, just that it\u2019s an open question which position the Cardinals will prefer him at. If he\u2019s heading to Springfield, Jeremy Rivas is in his way at SS, though he\u2019s not considered a prospect, but he\u2019s much better defensively. Deniel Ortiz may be in his way at 3B, although he also plays some 1B and there ain\u2019t nobody at 1B in Springfield. So his position is infield for now.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 107 G, 455 PAs, .247\/.332\/.394, 10.8 BB%, 16.9 K%, .146 ISO, .274 BABIP, 103 wRC+, 113 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting (FG): 35\/50 Hit, 35\/45 Game Power, 50\/50 Raw Power, 40\/30 Speed, 40\/55 Fielding<\/p>\n
Bernal seemingly had one weakness in his offensive profile and that was BABIP. He did have a .333 BABIP in High A last season and also his DRC+ does suggest he deserved a higher one. At the same time, he cut his K rate from 22.8% to 16.9%, and a possible consequence of that was he made weaker contact on plate appearances he struck out on in 2024. If that makes sense.<\/p>\n
Also, these aren\u2019t listed in my stats, but worth pointing out. Bernal allowed 42 stolen bases, but caught 27 base stealers for a 39.1% caught stealing rate. Pretty sure that\u2019s good. Also fun fact, given he is not fast, he himself swiped 13 bases and got caught stealing just 3 times. He stole 7 bases to 7 caught stealing last season, so probably not a talent of his, but always fun to see a slow guy steal some bases.<\/p>\n
Stats (Low A): 3 GS, 9.2 IP, 47.2 K%, 5.6 BB%, 68.8 GB%, .125 BABIP, 0.93 ERA\/0.98 FIP\/1.32 xFIP\/3.66 DRA<\/p>\n
High A: 11 GS, 28.1 IP, 31.2 K%, 18.1 BB%, 62.5 GB%, .254 BABIP, 5.08 ERA\/4.17 FIP\/4.74 xFIP\/4.75 DRA<\/p>\n
Scouting: 60\/60 Fastball, 70\/80 Slider, 40\/50 Change, 30\/40 Command<\/p>\n
Clarke threw so few of innings partially because of injuries, in particular nagging blister issues, which surely there\u2019s a way to prevent those in the future. The other reason, if you can tell by his innings per appearance, was because of how the team used him. His injury history before ever entering pro ball caused them to limit his innings – he didn\u2019t pitch at all in 2024 due to thoracic issues.<\/p>\n
But in his limited time, he did two of the three things I want pitchers to do: he struck out a lot of batters and he got groundballs when hitters did make contact. In Low A, he also did the third thing, which was not walk hitters. He walked a lot of hitters in High A, definitely impacted by his nagging blisters, although I\u2019m sure he struggled with control more generally too.<\/p>\n
Stats (AAA): 98 G, 430 PAs, .274\/.337\/.441, 8.4 BB%, 26.5 K%, .167 ISO, .352 BABIP, 105 wRC+, 106 DRC+<\/p>\n
MLB: 15 G, 46 PAs, .133\/.152\/.244, 0 BB%, 37 K%, .111 ISO, .185 BABIP, 5 wRC+, 67 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting: 35\/40 Hit, 40\/45 Game Power, 50\/50 Raw Power, 20\/20 Speed, 60\/70 Fielding<\/p>\n
There needs to be a term – and honestly there might be a term for what I\u2019m looking for – for a player like Crooks, whose stock seems to be down by the fanbase due to limited exposure in the MLB. It\u2019s not prospect fatigue – Crooks hasn\u2019t been in the conversation long enough to suffer from that. But he looked bad in the majors. That has almost certainly impacted peoples\u2019 opinions of him. He looked bad in 15 total games as a 23-year-old making his MLB debut. Do I need to share Mike Trout\u2019s rookie stats to show you why maybe we shouldn\u2019t put a lot of emphasis on those 15 games?<\/p>\n
Now, there are almost certainly some fans whose opinions changed based on the totality of his 2025 season, primarily in AAA – which did come with a higher K rate. But there are definitely fans whose opinions changed because they saw him be terrible at the MLB level and for no other reason. And I\u2019m saying honestly his MLB performance should essentially be completely ignored – it\u2019s just too small of a sample, too big of an adjustment, too big a moment in Crooks\u2019 life – to treat it with any kind of significance.<\/p>\n
Stats (Three levels): 8 G, 21.1 IP, 27.9 K%, 15.1 BB%, 45.8 GB%, .255 BABIP, 2.95 ERA\/3.80 FIP\/4.18 xFIP, 4.56 DRA<\/p>\n
Scouting: 45\/45 Fast, 50\/55 Slider, 60\/70 Change, 45\/55 Command<\/p>\n
Hence probably suffers from prospect fatigue however. Granted, it\u2019s not like he hasn\u2019t given us reasons to be fatigued. He just can\u2019t seem to stay healthy. I did argue last year, when I ranked him high on my list, that his injury issues were a bit overblown, and that\u2019s harder to argue this year. I will say that looking at his innings totals since drafted is rather misleading though – his 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons went according to plan. His 2024 season was his first hiccup, but he still threw nearly 80 innings. (and was amazing in those innings I must add)<\/p>\n
Last year was probably the first year where he truly deserved his reputation in my opinion. Still only 23 in 2026, let\u2019s hope they figure out a way to keep him healthy.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA\/3.16 FIP\/4.00 xFIP\/4.51 DRA<\/p>\n
Scouting: 50\/60 Fastball, 45\/50 Slider, 30\/40 Change, 40\/45 Cutter, 40\/50 Command<\/p>\n
As more of a stat follower than someone who scouts players or even looks at scouting reports of players, I am rather surprised how Fangraphs rates his pitches. If forced to guess, I would have predicted his secondaries were good, but his fastball was below average. It\u2019s almost the opposite. I don\u2019t know if this is accurate of course. But he\u2019s a fastball\/slider pitcher who needs a third pitch – according to this person\u2019s opinion of course. Certainly, these scouting numbers for his pitches suggest an easy transition to the bullpen at the least.<\/p>\n
Scouting: 55\/55 Fastball, 55\/60 Slider, 50\/50 Change, 45\/50 Cutter, 45\/50 Command<\/p>\n
The good news is that Hjerpe should be ready to pitch fairly early in the season since he had his Tommy John surgery pretty early last season. Recovery is 12-16 months, so he seems to be in the window to pitch some innings this year. The bad news is that his career high in innings right now is 52 innings, so it does kind of feel like there\u2019s a real ceiling in how many innings he will actually pitch this upcoming season.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA\/3.58 FIP\/3.20 xFIP\/4.54 DRA<\/p>\n
Scouting: 45\/45 Fastball, 55\/55 Slider, 40\/45 Curve, 35\/40 Change, 45\/55 Command<\/p>\n
I imagine the thing they are working hard on with Mautz is figuring out a way to not allow quite so many homers. For the second straight season, he carried a fairly high HR\/FB%. When hitters hit the ball in the air, they leave the park more than expected (hence the FIP and xFIP difference). But going from a pitcher\u2019s park to a hitter\u2019s park, Mautz improved in just about every way statistically, so his change from a 14% HR\/FB% to a 13.1% HR\/FB is actually a little more impressive than it sounds. It\u2019s not that hard to hit homers in Springfield. He also struck out quite a few more batters, walked less, and induced more groundballs.<\/p>\n
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285\/.406\/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+<\/p>\n
High A: 130 PAs, .336\/.438\/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+<\/p>\n
There are a couple questions with Ortiz. The first question is will he keep this up? He has a little more swing-and-miss in his game than you\u2019d like, although obviously he managed to cut his K rate when he got promoted to High A. The second question I have is: when will scouts buy in? He was a 16th rounder and I don\u2019t think he ranks particularly high on any Cardinals team list, but I mean clearly if you perform well enough, they\u2019re going to start paying attention. Baseball America in their deep dive on the Cardinals\u2019 system, mentioned him as a sleeper prospect. But you can\u2019t be a sleeper prospect without ranking somewhat low. Will certainly be an interesting player to follow.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA\/2.90 FIP\/2.73 xFIP\/4.56 DRA<\/p>\n
AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA\/4.01 FIP\/4.04 xFIP\/4.50 DRA<\/p>\n
Roby had Tommy John surgery in July of 2025, so his ability to pitch next year is a little more question than Hjerpe. But he pitched well last year, re-establishing himself as a prospect. Without the injury, I wonder how high he would be selected. I also feel that Roby was an example of a prospect that didn\u2019t get as much love because he was a deadline acquisition so there was less attachment. However, fans have gotten familiar with him for now two and half seasons, so he\u2019s probably not harmed by this effect anymore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"In the vote for the #4 prospect, Quinn Mathews did not win by a lot. It was a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":544112,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2403],"tags":[5,160,4,6213,673,67,4311,4310,38503],"class_list":{"0":"post-544111","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-st-louis-cardinals","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-cardinals","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-st-louis-cardinals-news","12":"tag-st-louis","13":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","14":"tag-stlouis","15":"tag-stlouiscardinals","16":"tag-veb-daily"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115978886736509476","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=544111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/544111\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/544112"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=544111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=544111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=544111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}