{"id":549137,"date":"2026-02-01T15:39:45","date_gmt":"2026-02-01T15:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/549137\/"},"modified":"2026-02-01T15:39:45","modified_gmt":"2026-02-01T15:39:45","slug":"deciphering-the-giants-plan-all-about-a-pending-dodgers-reckoning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/549137\/","title":{"rendered":"Deciphering the Giants\u2019 plan \u2014 all about a pending Dodgers reckoning?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Want more ways to catch up on the latest in Bay Area sports? Sign up for the Section 415 email newsletter here<\/a> and subscribe to the Section 415 podcast wherever you listen<\/a>.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s definitely a pattern to what the Giants have done and, more controversially, what they haven\u2019t done this odd offseason.<\/p>\n

Maybe there\u2019s an outline of an actual plan that goes beyond this season and past any potential new labor deal in 2027 (or whenever it happens), gets clear of the present dynasty in the south and perhaps into a whole new era of Giants baseball.<\/p>\n

Call it: Zen and the art of constructively waiting out the Dodgers\u2019 apex years.<\/p>\n

Also, to be clear, I\u2019m mostly just guessing at the intentions of Buster Posey & Co. this offseason; I haven\u2019t heard any of this from anybody in the organization, nor would I expect them to openly discuss it.<\/p>\n

But there are obvious clues. There\u2019s the presumption that Posey, Greg Johnson, and Zack Minasian aren\u2019t just throwing pennies into a wishing well \u2014 and buying San Francisco theater houses \u2014 randomly as the Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, and Phillies load up with talent.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a sense that nobody\u2019s going to go billion-for-billion with the Dodgers and that the financial system the Dodgers have mercilessly gamed the last few years will almost certainly be altered in some significant ways when the current labor deal expires after this season.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s the realization that the Giants already have committed a lot of money to their payroll. They currently have MLB\u2019s 13th-highest commitment in 2026, which includes a $17 million deferred payment to Blake Snell for his cameo stint way back in 2024 that I\u2019ve heard Giants people grumble about several times ever since. The Giants have the 12th-highest commitment for 2027, and seventh highest for 2028 \u2014 all according to Spotrac. <\/p>\n

Those are the big, sweeping parts of this. They make more sense when you go through the piece-by-piece decisions this offseason, which probably was capped off with the deals for Harrison Bader last week and Luis Arr\u00e1ez over the weekend.<\/p>\n

So here\u2019s what the Giants have done this offseason: <\/p>\n

\u2022 Continued to build up their farm system with a recent run of paying out millions to sign top international players \u2014 three promising shortstops in the last three signing periods.<\/p>\n

Add that to last year\u2019s No. 1 pick Gavin Kilen and this year\u2019s upcoming No. 4 overall pick; going into 2027, the Giants should have a very intriguing set of players at the top of their prospect list.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Signed moderate deals (all under $25 million, none longer than two years, none costing a compensatory pick) with Arr\u00e1ez, Bader, Adrian Houser, Tyler Mahle, and a few others to help fill areas of extreme need.<\/p>\n

1 day ago<\/p>\n

\"A<\/a><\/p>\n

4 days ago<\/p>\n

\"A<\/a><\/p>\n

Friday, Jan. 23<\/p>\n

\"A<\/a><\/p>\n

Key point emphasized: Posey and Minasian have added these players without any future cost of draft picks.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Fired Bob Melvin, eating a year on his contract, and hired Tony Vitello straight out of college and paying his Tennessee buyout.<\/p>\n

Managerial payments, like international signings, aren\u2019t part of luxury-tax calculations. You pay whatever you want to pay and if it gives you a slight advantage, you should pay some more.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what the Giants haven\u2019t done this offseason:<\/p>\n

\u2022 Gotten anywhere near committing huge long-term money to any of the big free agents this season, several of whom ended up with \u2014 surprise! \u2014 the two-time defending champion Dodgers.<\/p>\n

Bader and Arr\u00e1ez, two mid-career journeymen who help the Giants at specific positions in specific ways without a dollar committed beyond 2027, fit the pattern perfectly.<\/p>\n

Left-handed starter Framber Valdez is still available, but unless his price tag goes way down, he\u2019d add tons of long-term money to the payroll and would cost a comp pick. Plus, I doubt Posey of all people is overly enthusiastic about handing out a $100-million-plus contract to a pitcher who may or may not have purposely crossed up (opens in new tab)<\/a> and sent a fastball into the chest of his catcher in a fit of pique last summer.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Traded away Bryce Eldridge or any other top prospects for pitching help or to bolster any other position.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Given much of an indication that they\u2019re ready to directly take on \u2014 or even come close to challenging \u2014 the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers this season.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t expect Giants fans to jump for joy over that last part. Actually, I know most Giants fans are understandably bothered by Posey\u2019s lack of aggression about putting together enough stars to compete with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Mookie Betts, and I can keep typing names but will stop for brevity\u2019s sake.<\/p>\n

The Giants are already paying big dollars to Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Robbie Ray, Logan Webb, and others this season. Why not push harder to make those dollars count by surrounding them with the best players possible?<\/p>\n

But the money already committed could be an answer itself. The Giants played terribly for a big chunk of 2025 with these guys and still finished 81-81, just two games out of the NL\u2019s final wild-card spot.<\/p>\n

The Giants probably haven\u2019t gotten any worse this offseason. In fact, if Bader is healthy, he should be a solid upgrade in center over Jung Hoo Lee, who should be a decent enough upgrade over the grab-bag group that played right field last season.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, who knows how long Arr\u00e1ez will start at second base \u2014 I can imagine Giants pitchers getting a bit exasperated after a barrage of ground balls slip through the right side of the infield \u2014 but if he can hang in there, Arr\u00e1ez should be a contact-machine, as always.<\/p>\n

What will the Giants do if Houser and Mahle can\u2019t hold down rotation spots, if Vitello can\u2019t patch together a reliable bullpen, and if Arr\u00e1ez and Bader get hurt or go into funks?<\/p>\n

Well, it\u2019s not like Posey and Minasian could\u2019ve fixed all those problems even if the Giants were willing to spend a lot more this offseason. And if Eldridge can hit major-league pitching this season, the Giants might have their best lineup in a long time.<\/p>\n

Or if Eldridge needs more minor-league seasoning, he\u2019ll join Josuar Gonzalez, Kilen, Jhonny Level, Luis Hern\u00e1ndez, and the No. 4 pick in the Giants\u2019 system this season, which is the most intriguing group of Giants prospects since Posey, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, and Brandon Crawford were moving through the system.<\/p>\n

\"ATop prospect Bryce Eldridge was the Giants\u2019 first-round draft choice in 2023. | Source: Ross D. Franklin\/Associated Press<\/p>\n

The Giants never want to copy the A\u2019s except in one way: The A\u2019s have, once again, amassed an abundance of young position-player talent that the Giants have lacked until now.<\/p>\n

The A\u2019s young stars: Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof, Shea Langeliers, and, most notably, potential future MVP Nick Kurtz, who was the No. 4 pick in 2024, I will note.<\/p>\n

This is the kind of supply line that Farhan Zaidi was supposed to set up for the Giants and never could get across the finish line. <\/p>\n

But now the Giants have some things lined up. Even with Devers and the other big contracts, the Giants\u2019 2026 payroll is about $100 million less than the Dodgers\u2019, a gap that widens to more than $150 million in 2027 and 2028.<\/p>\n

If a new deal imposes a cap or strict punishment for overages starting in 2027, the Dodgers will be the focus of it. They might have to shed some payroll and bow out of most free-agent chases. And thanks to this moderate offseason, the Giants probably will be under that potential bar.<\/p>\n

So they might be stronger candidates to land Tarik Skubal or Bo Bichette (if he opts out) in the next free-agent cycle. Maybe old friend Kevin Gausman will be interested in a return engagement.<\/p>\n

Or maybe the Giants have an eye on a Japanese star ready to come to MLB in 2027 or 2028 \u2014 when the Dodgers\u2019 spending power might be extremely limited. Until then, the Giants have Webb, Devers, Ray, Chapman, Bader, Arr\u00e1ez, Houser, and others to go for a wild-card berth this season. It sure shouldn\u2019t be out of reach. <\/p>\n

Then when the new labor deal arrives, maybe we\u2019ll see the true impact of this zen offseason, which probably wasn\u2019t only about the Giants being frugal. It was also about them being aware of the moment. While also being frugal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Want more ways to catch up on the latest in Bay Area sports? Sign up for the Section…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":549138,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2408],"tags":[5,6595,162,4,378,66,4343,4340,4344,4341,4342,185],"class_list":{"0":"post-549137","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-san-francisco-giants","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-buster-posey","10":"tag-giants","11":"tag-mlb","12":"tag-san-francisco","13":"tag-san-francisco-giants","14":"tag-sanfrancisco","15":"tag-sanfranciscogiants","16":"tag-sf","17":"tag-sf-giants","18":"tag-sfgiants","19":"tag-sports"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/115996129773208742","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549137","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=549137"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/549137\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/549138"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=549137"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=549137"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=549137"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}