Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic Detroit had the scoop on Monday morning. The arbitration hearing between Detroit Tigers\u2019 ace, Tarik Skubal, and the club will take place on Wednesday, February 4. The arbitration panel will have 24 hours to rule in favor on one party or the other.<\/p>\n
The Tigers filed for a one-year contract of $19 million, while Skubal and agent Scott Boras filed at $32 million. The midpoint is $25.5 million, which is where the the three person panel will essentially make an over\/under decision and award Skubal either $19 million or $32 million. The two parties could still work out an agreement beforehand but that seems out of the question by this point.<\/p>\n
The difference of $13 million is the largest in the history of arbitration. Should the Tigers win, that decision may set a pretty firm cap on arbitration awards for now. Should Skubal win, he\u2019ll set a record for the highest salary ever for an arbitration eligible player, surpassing Juan Soto\u2019s $31 million a few years back. Soto\u2019s deal was agreed without a hearing, so the Skubal decision, should it go his way, will also set a new standard for arbitration awards for the top players in the game. His would also be the biggest one-year increase in the sport\u2019s history.<\/p>\n
The Tigers initially offered $19.80 million, which was rejected. That amount would just break David Price\u2019s 2015 record for a one-year salary for an arbitration eligible pitcher by $50,000, though again, that deal was negotiated to agreement by then GM Dave Dombrowski and Price\u2019s representatives. It didn\u2019t go to an arbitration panel. It\u2019s fairly telling that 11 years later, the Tigers offered Skubal the same amount, and that is why many expect Skubal to come out on top in the hearing. That certainly isn\u2019t guaranteed, however, as the size of the raise year over year would also be unprecedented should Skubal win through and receive the $32 million.<\/p>\n
A minor war of words in the media has followed, as the two parties filed their initial numbers, each rejecting the others\u2019 demands. At that point negotiations ceased, the two parties filed their numbers, and there have been no reported talks since. The Tigers came off looking rather poorly based on their offer just on the Price comparison alone. They did fire back a little through the media, suggesting that they were willing to negotiate from that point, but that Boras and Skubal cut off negotiations. Boras responded that he and Skubal were still willing to negotiate. And so it goes\u2026<\/p>\n
As big of a story as this is for Major League Baseball, particularly with the next CBA negotiations looming, we\u2019ll have to see if this is actually that impactful for the 2026 Tigers or not. The $13 million may be the difference in terms of adding another depth starter or not, and the starting pitching market has ground to a halt over the last week or two, perhaps in anticipation of arb hearings around the league finalizing payroll numbers for numerous teams. But unless the Tigers are getting into the Framber Valdez sweepstakes, or waiting on the final number before actively engaging on talks to trade Skubal, which seems highly unlikely at this point, then they\u2019re probably hunting for a cheaper, one-year starter either way.<\/p>\n