Truck Day is happening later this week, and the Royals still seem to be short of what many fans hoped they\u2019d accomplish this offseason. For those uninitiated, Truck Day is when the team loads up most of the equipment it will need for Spring Training into a truck and begins driving it from Kansas City down to Surprise, Arizona. It traditionally marks the end of the offseason and the beginning of the preseason.<\/p>\n
Of course, the preseason doesn\u2019t preclude teams from continuing to make moves. I\u2019ve argued for more than a month now that the Royals have a history of making at least one significant move between the end of January and the beginning of the regular season. In 2023, it was signing Zack Greinke. In 2024, it was trading for John Schreiber and signing Adam Frazier. In 2025, it was signing Carlos Est\u00e9vez. Having written them all down like that, they\u2019ve also got a pattern of progressively more impactful moves in that timespan.<\/p>\n
There are also plenty of big moves left to be made around MLB. Eugenio Su\u00e1rez finally signed a contract this week, but Framber Valdez is still looking for a home. So are Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Marcell Ozuna, and Miguel Andujar. The Red Sox still haven\u2019t traded from their outfield glut or fixed their lackluster infield, the Mets still haven\u2019t addressed their infield glut, Brendan Donovan is still a Cardinal*, and the Twins could yet make some additional baffling moves.<\/p>\n
*He was when I wrote this, and then, before I had to quit checking for the night, it was reported that the Mariners were close to a deal for him.<\/p>\n
But what if the Royals don\u2019t make an impactful move between now and the beginning of the regular season? Would that be the end of the world? ZiPS<\/a> projects the Royals to 83 wins, which would tie them with the Tigers for the division crown. Most other projection systems see the Royals similarly neck-and-neck with the Tigers at the top of a relatively weak AL Central. Last year, ZiPS projected the Royals to finish 82-80<\/a>, third in the division – exactly where they ended up. Of course, it thought the Twins would be the team between KC and the division-winning Guardians, so it\u2019s not perfect, but there\u2019s certainly some value to these projections. In 2024, they were projected to go 74-88<\/a> – Dan noted at the time that ZiPS just didn\u2019t see the Royals as being as advanced as they were acting. But most projection systems tend to be a bit conservative about team improvement, and it wasn\u2019t yet a given that Bobby Witt Jr. was one of the three best players in the AL at any given time.<\/p>\n All that to say, the Royals, as currently constructed on February 3, are contenders for the Central Division in 2026. Something that was not a given in 2024, when they were tied for the division lead as late as August 27, nor last year, even when most expected them to take at least a small step forward from the success of 2024.<\/p>\n The Royals\u2019 offseason work has given them options<\/p>\n An additional move might make them clear favorites in 2026, but the move just may not be out there to be made. I don\u2019t think any of us would argue that the 2025 Royals wouldn\u2019t have been improved by having Mike Yastrzemski on the roster for the entire year, but the Giants believed they could be contenders and weren\u2019t going to trade him before the season. However, the moves the Royals have made this offseason have much better prepared the team to get to the trade deadline in better shape than in 2025.<\/p>\n The Royals had two problems that held them back last year: the absolute worst corner outfield setup in MLB and a series of injuries to their starting rotation that they didn\u2019t have the depth to cover. Those things will not be true this year, even as the rest of the team around those flaws looks remarkably similar. Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek are markedly better than any options the Royals had to replace injured pitchers once Noah Cameron joined the rotation in place of Cole Ragans last year. Heck, even Bailey Falter is likely an improvement over Rich Hill, Thomas Hatch, and Trevor Richards. Mason Black, as things currently stand, would seem to be the fourth or fifth guy up in case of injury, and he\u2019d have been the second if he had been a part of the 2025 squad.<\/p>\n Jac Caglianone represents a lot of uncertainty, while Isaac Collins and Lane Thomas are no one\u2019s ideal corner outfield duo. But together they represent a much improved group compared to what MJ Melendez, Hunter Renfroe, Drew Waters, and John Rave could offer the team in 2025. Most importantly, they do this by drastically raising the floor.<\/p>\n