Our newest writer, John Latham, had an interesting look at The Cardinals\u2019 2026 Roster and the Cost of Choosing Too Slowly.\u00a0 It got me to thinking about how things might look after the 2026 season is over and it is time to revamp the 40-man roster again.\u00a0 It can pay to look down the road a bit, as these future considerations can often influence in-season decisions on who gets promoted.<\/p>\n
One of the implications of this (almost completed) off-season is how much churn the organization has introduced to the 40-man roster, not only now, but on out into the future.\u00a0 I count 13 players new to the 40-man roster just since the trading deadline, 9 of them pitchers.\u00a0 Fully one-third of the roster has turned over.\u00a0 One could argue that a 78-win team that has missed the playoffs three consecutive years should have that kind of turnover.<\/p>\n
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In November 2025 much ado was made of 40-man roster pressure.\u00a0 Some indicated that 40-man concerns played into why we didn\u2019t see JJ Wetherholt in the majors at all.\u00a0 In the end, though, the Cardinals added just five players (Bernal, Baez, Torres, Hjerpe and Mautz).\u00a0 Five additions were enough in the sense they didn\u2019t expose anyone unnecessarily, as only Winquest was drafted away but he is expected back. \u00a0It wasn\u2019t enough in the sense there is still a talent deficit.<\/p>\n
Not to be harsh, but the only guys that were removed or non-tendered or bypassed were guys that did not have a lot of foreseeable upside or their timeline for development had pretty much expired without enough progress.<\/p>\n
To me, a strong draft-and-development program will constantly face progressively more difficult 40-man roster issues, if they are being successful.\u00a0 Younger guys will pressure the more established prospects in an \u201cup or out\u201d conveyor belt.\u00a0 If the perception of the Cardinals minor league system is valid, this next November could reveal more difficult 40-man roster choices.\u00a0 I\u2019m curious if we look over the horizon if that is what we see.<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s take an early look at prospects not on the 40-man roster who will need to be at the next deadline in November 2026.\u00a0 Suffice it to say, the Cardinals will face more than five decisions next year.\u00a0 That says something good about the depth of the system (improving).\u00a0 I will focus only on ranked prospects, reducing Latham\u2019s list by a bit:<\/p>\n
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Guys that are either possible or likely to get 40-man spots before they need to, due to MLB promotion (3):<\/p>\n
Wetherholt, Mathews, Doyle<\/p>\n
Prospects that will require 40-man spots in November 2026 to be protected from Rule V (9):<\/p>\n
Skylar Hales, Luis Gastelum, Ixan Henderson, Jesus Baez, Travis Honeyman, Chase Davis, Zach Levenson, Chen Wei Lin, Tyler Bradt<\/p>\n
Reliever prospects that may ascend to the 40-man to feed the Memphis shuttle as the Cardinals rotate bullpen arms and while protecting other prospects (4):<\/p>\n
Mason Burns, Michael Watson, Zack Thompson, Scott Blewitt<\/p>\n
As I look at the current roster and the number of injured arms, I suspect the seven healthy pitchers who are on the 40-man that won\u2019t be on the 26-man coming out of Spring Training will not be enough to support the MLB bullpen.<\/p>\n
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The first complication of 40-man roster management is the need to cycle in fresh arms for the bullpen during the season can muck up the long-term planning.\u00a0 Sometimes, during the season, these guys get the call not because they are the best arm, but because they are the most expendable.\u00a0 Blewitt won\u2019t be protected next November.\u00a0 If a need arises in-season, he\u2019d be a guy they could promote because his occupancy of a 40-man spot would be temporary and won\u2019t force the subtraction of a real prospect.\u00a0 A guy in his spot really gets one shot.\u00a0 When he gets the MLB call, he better keep it because his pathway out of the MLB bullpen is likely via the DFA route.\u00a0 Orgs will burn through these guys before they start promoting younger guys onto the 40-man that don\u2019t need to be.<\/p>\n
Once a guy gets a 40-man spot, it is his and pretty much the only way the organization can get it back is letting him go.\u00a0 The proverbial \u201ccut ties\u201d. \u00a0Shuffle that incorrectly, and you end up having to promote a guy before he is ready or needing to go to the waiver wire to fill an unexpected hole.\u00a0 Both are less than desirable options.<\/p>\n
To balance all this, it helps to understand what spots might open up at the end of the season. \u00a0First, there are the players on 1-year contracts (May, Stanek).\u00a0 Also, one can gander at the current 40-man roster and suspect there are some spots that can use some improvement.\u00a0 I don\u2019t need to single out any individual player, but you can probably look and imagine in the area of five players.\u00a0 Easy enough.\u00a0 But that means that over the summer and into next fall, the organization must carefully balance 16 guys that may need spots in the next 9 months with the 7 spots they will realistically have open.<\/p>\n
For those keeping score at home, 16 guys do not fit into 7 spots.\u00a0 In essence, there are 9-10 hard decisions coming.\u00a0 A few prospects will drop off the list of 16 due to non-performance but one or two could emerge as breakouts, too.\u00a0 Saladin? Hansen?\u00a0 Rajcic?\u00a0 Rincon? Love?\u00a0 It happens.\u00a0 If any one of these guys find that last ingredient to their game, they will need to go on the 40-man by November or be lost.<\/p>\n
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How do they balance all this?<\/p>\n
Wetherholt, Mathews and Doyle are guys that will be promoted when the org feels they are ready.\u00a0 Hard to put a timeline on each one, but it sure seems possible that JJW would break camp in spring with the big club. \u00a0I\u2019d say Mathews is ahead of Doyle but both appear to be around 8-9 on the starter depth chart, behind May, Pallante, Liberatore, McGreevy, Leahy, Dobbins, Fitts.\u00a0 Most years most teams need more than 7 starters.\u00a0 Their time will come.\u00a0 But when it does, they will push someone on the current roster off, and out of the organization.<\/p>\n
Blewitt and Thompson are guys not on the 40-man but could well end up there and promoted when there is a critical need.\u00a0 If they come out of spring healthy and productive. <\/p>\n
Gastelum, Hales, Lin and Bradt will likely be handled similarly.\u00a0 They will idle in in the minors longer than Blewitt and Thompson, developing their game.\u00a0 When the bullpen needs an infusion (they seemingly always do), the one doing best of this group will be pushed up the ladder earliest, claiming a coveted 40-man spot.\u00a0 Lin will start at AA, so he is probably last in line.\u00a0 The others may all start the year in the Memphis bullpen.\u00a0 Someone will step forward in this group, and an opportunity will undoubtedly arise.\u00a0 Sometimes you just have be in the right place, at the right time.<\/p>\n
Burns and Watson are similar to the above group of relievers, but they do not need to be protected at the end of the year, so the org will be reluctant to burn a 40-man spot for them unless forced to by circumstances.\u00a0 Their 40-man decision will likely not be made in 2026.\u00a0 Although influenced by how their 2026 season goes, their time is not now.\u00a0 <\/p>\n
Honeyman, Davis and Levenson will also likely be handled similarly.\u00a0 Each must demonstrate a reason to protect them at year end. All 3 three are outfielders on an outfield starved team, so their path to MLB could be quick with great performance and a 40-man spot, once claimed, isn\u2019t easily given up.\u00a0 I suspect there is a position player roster clean-up coming by the end of 2026 like the pitching clean-up that has occurred this off-season.\u00a0 These guys could all get swept out if they are unable to progress enough. \u00a0My view would be if they haven\u2019t earned an MLB promotion by end of 2026, they won\u2019t be protected.<\/p>\n
Jesus Baez is an interesting case.\u00a0 He too must demonstrate a reason to protect him at years end.\u00a0 Given he ended the year a High-A, he has no chance at MLB promotion, so his decision will be made in November.\u00a0 Expect him to start in AA and let\u2019s hope he excels. <\/p>\n
Crafting the 40-man roster, and transacting in-season, requires a long-term look and can be a bit like 3-dimensional chess.\u00a0 Since 16 guys won\u2019t fit into 7 spots, we might expect to see the Cardinals begin dealing prospects later in the year to consolidate talent.\u00a0 As well, some of the guys who\u2019ve gotten long lead times to develop may find their runway clearance cancelled.\u00a0 The more of these 16 players the organization believes will be successful, the sooner in 2026 we could begin to see roster churn.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Our newest writer, John Latham, had an interesting look at The Cardinals\u2019 2026 Roster and the Cost of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":558028,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[2403],"tags":[5,160,73612,16641,17271,30876,4,1173,37405,673,67,69184,4311,4310,4391,5422],"class_list":{"0":"post-558027","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-st-louis-cardinals","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-cardinals","10":"tag-chen-wei-lin","11":"tag-fitts","12":"tag-mcgreevy","13":"tag-michael-watson","14":"tag-mlb","15":"tag-pallante","16":"tag-skylar-hales","17":"tag-st-louis","18":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","19":"tag-stanek","20":"tag-stlouis","21":"tag-stlouiscardinals","22":"tag-the-cardinals","23":"tag-zack-thompson"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116024472281831011","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/558027","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=558027"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/558027\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/558028"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=558027"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=558027"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=558027"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}