Or this guy<\/a>.<\/p>\n Or this guy:<\/p>\n \n Hall of Famer Walter Johnson in 1942. (Bruce Bennett Studios via Getty Images)<\/p>\n Yes, back then, if you wanted to be a Hall of Fame starting pitcher, the formula was pretty simple. Just win 397 games, and you were in! That\u2019s how many career wins the first five inductees \u2014 Walter Johnson, Christy Mathewson, Cy Young, Grover Cleveland Alexander and Old Hoss Radbourn \u2014 averaged. Because, well \u2026<\/p>\n Baseball was a little different then.<\/p>\n So now let\u2019s ask a much tougher question: 80 years from now, will the whole world still know a Hall of Fame starting pitcher when it sees one?<\/p>\n Hmmm, you\u2019ve got us. Because, well, how can we be sure that on Induction Weekend 2106, there won\u2019t be three starters on the podium who haven\u2019t even won 397 games combined?<\/p>\n If we peer into the future, we can see another eight to 10 years of relative Hall of Fame \u201cnormalcy.\u201d Clayton Kershaw, a Hall of Fame lock in any era, will debut on the 2031 ballot. Then it will be Justin Verlander\u2019s turn \u2026 and Max Scherzer\u2019s \u2026 assuming they ever retire.<\/p>\n But then what? After Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer, will there ever be another Hall of Fame starting pitcher? Don\u2019t laugh. That\u2019s a serious question.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a question we\u2019ve been pondering for months. It\u2019s even more on our minds after the most recent Hall of Fame election<\/a>, as 169-game winner F\u00e9lix Hern\u00e1ndez reeled in a stunning 46 percent of the vote. And it\u2019s a question we\u2019ve been asking people in the sport since last July.<\/p>\n Even they\u2019re confused, because of course they are. Check out this exchange with the most recent starting pitcher inductee, CC Sabathia, last summer in Cooperstown, N.Y., that summed up that confusion perfectly.<\/p>\n THE ATHLETIC:\u201cHere\u2019s a question for you. Ten years, 15 years, 50 years from now, what do you think a Hall of Fame starting pitcher is going to look like?\u201d<\/p>\n SABATHIA: \u201cI have no idea.\u201d<\/p>\n TA: \u201cIsn\u2019t that crazy?\u201d<\/p>\n SABATHIA: \u201cHonestly, I have no idea. I do think there\u2019s going to be somebody with less than 100 wins \u2014 and 3,000 strikeouts. Jacob deGrom maybe. That could happen.\u201d<\/p>\n For the record, deGrom has 96 career wins \u2026 and 1,851 strikeouts. So it\u2019s probably not going to happen with him. But could Hunter Greene do that \u2026 or Spencer Strider \u2026 or Dylan Cease \u2026 or some 2052 flame-thrower who isn\u2019t even born yet? Who the heck knows.<\/p>\n What we do know is that the rapidly changing sport of baseball is now hurtling through unexplored space at the speed of light. And so much of that change revolves around pitchers \u2014 how they\u2019re used, how hard they throw, how rarely they\u2019re even asked to reach the late innings \u2014 that we can barely grasp where it\u2019s leading.<\/p>\n So can we really be sure there will be any such thing as a Hall of Fame starting pitcher in the 22nd century?<\/p>\n \u201cOh yeah, there will be,\u201d said another Hall of Fame left-hander, Tom Glavine. \u201cI just don\u2019t know how we\u2019re going to figure out who they are.\u201d<\/p>\n Nailed it!<\/p>\n You don\u2019t need to be a descendant of Dizzy Dean to know how we got here. We had ourselves a great century or so, where all we had to do was count up a pitcher\u2019s wins. But suddenly, we\u2019re living on a planet where \u201cthe win\u201d is a more endangered species than the turtleheaded sea snake.<\/p>\n So we don\u2019t have to wonder anymore what we\u2019ll do when \u201cthe win\u201d is no longer the meaningful barometer it used to be. We\u2019re already there.<\/p>\n Take a look at this chart. It shows the active pitchers with the most career wins at their age as of today. (We\u2019re not using the sport\u2019s age-as-of-July-1 standard. If a guy turns 28 in two weeks, he\u2019s still 27 on this list.)<\/p>\n And just to drive home the contrast between this era and the previous generation of pitchers, we\u2019re listing how many wins Greg Maddux had at the same age, as he entered another new season.<\/p>\n AGEPITCHER WINS MADDUX WINS<\/p>\n 22<\/p>\n Eury P\u00e9rez<\/p>\n 12<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 26<\/p>\n 23<\/p>\n Paul Skenes<\/p>\n 21<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 45<\/p>\n 24<\/p>\n Taj Bradley<\/p>\n 19<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 60<\/p>\n 25<\/p>\n Bryan Woo<\/p>\n 28<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 75<\/p>\n 26<\/p>\n Brayan Bello<\/p>\n 39<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 95<\/p>\n 27<\/p>\n George Kirby<\/p>\n 45<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 115<\/p>\n 28<\/p>\n Logan Gilbert<\/p>\n 47<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 131<\/p>\n 29<\/p>\n Freddy Peralta<\/p>\n 70<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 150<\/p>\n 29<\/p>\n Logan Webb<\/p>\n 70<\/p>\n 30<\/p>\n Germ\u00e1n M\u00e1rquez<\/p>\n 68<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 165<\/p>\n 31<\/p>\n Jos\u00e9 Berr\u00edos\u00a0<\/p>\n 108<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 184<\/p>\n 32<\/p>\n Aaron Nola<\/p>\n 109<\/p>\n Maddux <\/p>\n 202<\/p>\n We could keep going here. Gerrit Cole\u2019s 153 wins are the most by any active pitcher 35 or younger. Maddux was at 257 wins at the same age (35) \u2014 on his way to 355.<\/p>\n Verlander, age 42, has the most wins of any active pitcher, period, with 266. He\u2019s still 89 away from Maddux, who was almost exactly Verlander\u2019s age when he threw his last pitch.<\/p>\n If you\u2019re really paying attention, you noticed that no pitcher under 30 has more than 70 wins. Yep, 70. And only one pitcher under 25 (Paul Skenes) has even reached 20 wins. Yep, 20.<\/p>\n So let\u2019s do some quick math: To reach 300 wins before his 40th birthday, Skenes would have to average more than 17 wins a year for the next 16 seasons in a row. Do you like the odds of that \u2014 after only four pitchers in the entire sport won 17 or more last year? Let\u2019s go with no.<\/p>\n \u201cObviously, with the 300-game winners \u2026 I don\u2019t see that happening the way the game is now,\u201d said Glavine, who won 305 in his day (1987-2008), which didn\u2019t seem like ancient history until he started having this conversation. \u201cAnd for a minute, it seemed like 250 would be the new 300. But now I don\u2019t think 250 is going to be (within reach, either). And I\u2019m not even sure about 200 unless something changes.\u201d<\/p>\n \n Tom Glavine, a 305-game winner, is introduced during last year\u2019s Hall of Fame induction ceremony. (Jim McIsaac \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n So what does that mean? Will 150 be the new 200? Will 100 be the new 150? You want to know the truth? If you\u2019re over 40, you may not like this, but \u2026<\/p>\n The win \u2026 is \u2026 dead.<\/p>\n Oh, maybe it\u2019s not quite dead when we consider the cases of Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer \u2014 or even Zack Greinke, a 225-game winner, who arrives on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2029. And maybe it\u2019s not quite dead when we examine the pitchers on the ballot right now. But looking forward? Looking at Hall voting when every active starter under age 35 becomes eligible?<\/p>\n D-E-A-D.<\/p>\n So let\u2019s ask this again: Then what?<\/p>\n It\u2019s either A) have a Hall of Fame that\u2019s all hitters in the years to come, or B) figure out some other way to decide which pitchers are great. And doesn\u2019t Plan B have to win that debate?<\/p>\n \u201cAre we just not going to put anybody in the Hall of Fame anymore, or are we going to adjust to how (the game) works today?\u201d asked one front-office executive. \u201cBecause it seems stupid to have a Hall of Fame and just have none of the best players in the Hall of Fame, right?\u201d<\/p>\n Right. So how are we going to navigate this? Let\u2019s look at the future of the Hall of Fame through the prism of some of the candidates who are going to force us to decide, starting with \u2026<\/p>\n F\u00e9lix Hern\u00e1ndez \n (Elaine Thompson \/ Associated Press)<\/p>\n His credentials: By olden-day standards, they\u2019re a little light: 169-136 won-lost record, with a 3.42 ERA and a 117 ERA+. On the other hand, Hern\u00e1ndez was so entrenched in the best-pitcher-in-baseball discussion that in the six seasons between 2009-14, he won a Cy Young Award, finished second twice and came in fourth once. And he led all right-handed pitchers in baseball in WAR (either version) over the nine seasons from 2007-15.<\/p>\n Where he stands: Just delivered the biggest stunner in the 2026 election. Zoomed from 20.6 percent of the vote in his first year on the ballot to 46.1 percent this year. That\u2019s the biggest one-year climb, by percentage points, of any pitcher in history. That\u2019s telling us something.<\/p>\n Why we should care: Nearly six decades passed between the retirement of Sandy Koufax (165 wins) in 1966 and the arrival of King F\u00e9lix on the ballot in 2025. In that span, 32 other pitchers retired with between 165 and 199 wins. You know what they had in common? Not one was elected to the Hall \u2014 or even came close.<\/p>\n So Hern\u00e1ndez\u2019s eye-popping rise feels like a major ballot-changing moment. It wouldn\u2019t be his first.<\/p>\n In 2010, when Hern\u00e1ndez won the American League Cy Young Award with only 13 wins, it signaled the demise of the almighty win as the ultimate barometer in Cy Young voting. So is he now following the same playbook to blow up Hall of Fame voting? Sure looks like it \u2014 since nobody with under 200 wins has even been a serious threat to get elected since Koufax cruised in, on the first ballot, in 1972.<\/p>\n We find this whole thing fascinating, because back in 2010, \u201cthe win\u201d was far from dead. And the sport was overflowing with pitchers like Hern\u00e1ndez, who still chewed up massive innings. Take a peek at how different that age was from this one.<\/p>\n Pitchers with … <\/p>\n 20102025<\/p>\n 200+ IP<\/p>\n 25<\/p>\n 3<\/p>\n 162+ IP<\/p>\n 92<\/p>\n 52<\/p>\n 15+ WINS<\/p>\n 24<\/p>\n 7<\/p>\n 10+ WINS<\/p>\n 63<\/p>\n 29<\/p>\n (Source: Baseball Reference \/ Stathead)<\/p>\n Back then, the average team still featured three starters who threw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, probably had an ace who blew past 200 innings and had multiple pitchers with double-digit wins. Which tells us that starters then still cared about \u201cthe win\u201d \u2014 and it was still a big enough factor in voting that it would be over a decade before another AL starter won the Cy Young, in a full season, with under 18 wins.<\/p>\n So, wins were not a meaningless line on the stat sheet in King F\u00e9lix\u2019s heyday \u2014 but the voters in this election seemed to have a different take.<\/p>\n Look, the writers have made it clear we know where \u201cthe win\u201d is going. But shouldn\u2019t it fade in Hall of Fame significance as part of a more gradual phase-out? Is it logical for voters to be already applying the voting standards of tomorrow to the pitchers of Hern\u00e1ndez\u2019s era?<\/p>\n Just asking \u2014 because F\u00e9lix\u2019s career largely overlapped with Sabathia\u2019s (although CC debuted in 2001, Hern\u00e1ndez in 2005). But Sabathia was still able to pile up 251 wins \u2014 and he believes that it meant something.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m so thankful and glad that I came up in the era where winning the game, as a starting pitcher, meant more than anything,\u201d Sabathia said, \u201cand I was lucky to learn that lesson from guys like Dave Burba, Chuck Finley and Charles Nagy when I was young. It\u2019s just something that I carry with me throughout my whole career, and I think it\u2019s the reason why I\u2019m here.\u201d<\/p>\n But a year after Sabathia\u2019s induction, have times already changed? Discuss!<\/p>\n Andy Pettitte \n (Rob Carr \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n His credentials: Pettitte\u2019s old-school case embodies the other side of this. His 256-153 record is almost identical to Sabathia\u2019s (251-161), as is their ERA+ (117 for Pettitte, 116 for Sabathia). Pettitte also brings along voluminous postseason bonus points. But his admission that he tried using human growth hormone, to help recover from injury, still lingers over his candidacy.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AP080408043323-scaled.jpg\")
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