The state of pitching in modern baseball is volatile. In many cases, occupying a roster spot requires a pitcher to do things on the field that the human body simply isn\u2019t made to do, over and over again. Every organization is full of injured pitchers, past and current Tommy John recipients, and guys in the midst of long rehab stints, so a fanbase saying \u201cWhen our rotation is healthy\u2026\u201d is often nothing more than an eternal chasing of the carrot.<\/p>\n
That said, if healthy, the Yankees could have one of the best rotations in baseball this Summer. Gerrit Cole seems to be recovering from Tommy John surgery without any major setbacks, and should be back to reclaim his throne sometime around June. Carlos Rod\u00f3n had a bone spur removed from his elbow in October and won\u2019t be ready for the start of the season, but he should make his 2026 debut sometime in May. It\u2019s unlikely we see much Clarke Schmidt this season after he underwent TJS last July, but a smooth recovery could plausibly lead to him being an option late down the stretch.<\/p>\n
The rotation is a bit thin for now without those three, but the Yankees should have enough firepower to weather the storm and remain competitive in their absence. Max Fried went 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA last season and was one spot away from being a Cy Young finalist. Fried has done an excellent job of taking up the mantle as the ace in the Bronx in Cole\u2019s absence. He\u2019ll start on Opening Day in 2026, and will need to anchor a depleted rotation for the first couple months of the season until Cole and Rod\u00f3n are able to return.<\/p>\n
The breakout of Cam Schlittler was among the most fun storylines to watch play out in the Bronx in the second half of last season, culminating in eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts against the Red Sox in an elimination game. Schlittler lines up to start the season as the second option in the rotation, and will look to continue his ascendance in 2026. Behind him is Will Warren, whose up-and-down season ended with a 9-8 record and a 4.44 ERA in 162 innings; Ryan Weathers, who will join Matt Blake\u2019s pitching lab after being acquired in a 4-for-1 deal with the Marlins this offseason; and 2024 Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, whose strikeout rate plummeted in 2025 and who walked an even higher percentage of hitters upon returning from injury. A wide variety of outcomes is on the table for all three of these pitchers, but they all have the talent to retain their spots even if the rotation reaches full health.<\/p>\n
Schlittler was the main breakout starter, but 2025 was an excellent year for the Yankees pitching development and they have a few more prospects on the verge of the big-leagues who could make their MLB debuts sometime this season. The first of three main candidates is Elmer Rodr\u00edguez, who should be considered the closest of the three after making his Triple-A debut at the end of last season. Rodr\u00edguez was acquired from the Red Sox last offseason in a swap for catcher Carlos Narv\u00e1ez, and spent all season dominating High-A and Double-A before making one final start in Scranton which didn\u2019t go particularly well. The 6-foot-3 right-hander will turn 23 in August, and could be expected to debut in the Bronx around that time.<\/p>\n
The other two main candidates for a 2026 debut are Ben Hess and Carlos Lagrange, both of whom ended last season in Double-A and will either start this season at the same level or join Rodr\u00edguez in Scranton. Hess was the Yankees\u2019 first-round draft pick in 2024 out of Alabama, and rewarded the investment by posting much better numbers as a pro than he ever did in college. The 23-year-old has a lively fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a deep arsenal with two plus breaking balls and an effective changeup. He made 15 starts in High-A with a 3.51 ERA and seven in Double-A with a 2.70 ERA, and struck out exactly 33% of the hitters he faced across the two levels.<\/p>\n
Hess is a bit more likely to start the year in Scranton than the 22-year-old Lagrange, who has the most electric stuff of any pitcher in the Yankees\u2019 farm system but is still in need of further refinement. The 6-foot-7 Lagrange struggled severely with command issues prior to last season and walked 20 percent of the hitters he faced in Low-A and the Complex league in 2024. His 2025 campaign was a revelation, as much-improved control allowed his lethal fastball-slider combination to pop. He struck out 33.4 percent of the hitters he faced. A few blow-up starts inflated his ERA and walk rate, but he was able to avoid walks in most of his outingss, and when he did he looked like one of the very best pitchers in the minor leagues.<\/p>\n
Other notable names projected to start the season behind Rodr\u00edguez in the Triple-A rotation are Osvaldo Bido, who the Yankees claimed off waivers just last week, and Brendan Beck, the team\u2019s second-round pick from the 2021 MLB Draft. Bido was effective with the Athletics during their final season in Oakland in 2024, but his numbers took a dive last season, possibly due to the team moving into a more hitter-friendly environment in Sacramento. Beck dominated Double-A in 2025 with a 1.82 ERA in 54 innings, but he came down to earth following a promotion to Triple-A with a 4.44 ERA in 77 innings. Beck received a non-roster invite to spring training, as did other projected Triple-A pitchers Dom Hamel, Adam Kloffenstein, Alexander Cornielle, and Drake Fellows.<\/p>\n
Behind Hess and Lagrange in Double-A is Kyle Carr, another non-roster invitee who dominated High-A in 2025. Carr won\u2019t blow hitters away with his fastball but has a deep enough arsenal to navigate starts effectively and efficiently. His numbers in the minor leagues jumped off the page. Carr posted a 1.96 ERA in 119.1 innings at High-A Hudson Valley despite a mediocre 11.9 K-BB%. A high-end outcome for him is Matthew Boyd, another crafty left-hander who led the Cubs rotation for most of last season.<\/p>\n
Bryce Cunningham, the Yankees\u2019 second-round draft pick from the 2024 MLB Draft, should also start the season in Double-A. Cunningham was on the same trajectory as Rodr\u00edguez, Hess, and Lagrange during the first half of last season, but missed two months with an injury and wasn\u2019t quite as sharp for the remainder of the year. A disastrous performance in the Arizona Fall League raised further questions about his health, and it\u2019s fair to consider him a tier below those other three pitchers for now. He\u2019ll look to get back on track in 2026.<\/p>\n
Notable pitchers who are projected to start the year in High-A include Cade Smith, Xavier Rivas, and Allen Facundo. The AFL had the opposite effect on Smith\u2019s prospect stock as it did on Cunningham\u2019s, as Smith was by far the most effective Yankee of the crop who was sent to the desert (which consisted mostly of players who missed time during the 2025 regular season due to injury.) Smith pitched 32 innings in High-A with a 2.76 ERA, then posted a 2.13 ERA in 12 innings in Arizona. The left-handed Rivas had something of a breakout himself in 2025, moving up multiple levels from the Complex league to High-A. He struggled mightily in Low-A, strangely enough, but dominated High-A to the tune of a 1.23 ERA in his final five starts of the year. Facundo pitched 33 innings in Low-A with a 2.14 ERA. All three of these pitchers are 23-years-old, so if they keep their momentum going, the team shouldn\u2019t waste much time before promoting them to Double-A.<\/p>\n
The main names to know in Low-A to start the season are Henry Lalane, Luis Serna, and Pico Kohn. Lalane picked up some serious steam before the 2024 season as a 6-foot-7 lefty with potentially three plus pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) but an inability to stay healthy and find the plate caused him to fall off the radar. He pitched 16 innings with a 1.65 ERA to end last season, but that came with a 17.8% walk rate. We\u2019ll see if he can locate his pitches more effectively moving forward. Serna missed almost all of 2025 after a disappointing season the year prior, but he\u2019ll look to stay healthy and get back on track in 2026. Kohn was the team\u2019s fourth-round pick out of Mississippi State in last year\u2019s draft, a 6-foot-4 lefty who posted a 32.6% strikeout rate in 80 innings during his final season in college. He\u2019s yet to make his professional debut.<\/p>\n
This season should also mark the return of Chase Hampton and Thatcher Hurd from Tommy John surgery. Hampton was once considered a top prospect in the organization before suffering extended health issues, due to high strikeout rates which took a dive before he opted to go under the knife. If Hampton can return to anything resembling his old self, he should see some time in Triple-A or Double-A while his value is re-assessed. Hurd was the Yankees\u2019 third-round pick in 2024, but never got to make his pro debut before undergoing surgery prior to last season.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The state of pitching in modern baseball is volatile. In many cases, occupying a roster spot requires a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":564171,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2376],"tags":[5,4,1690,62,2548,2547,142,40429],"class_list":{"0":"post-564170","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-new-york-yankees","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-mlb","10":"tag-new-york","11":"tag-new-york-yankees","12":"tag-newyork","13":"tag-newyorkyankees","14":"tag-yankees","15":"tag-yankees-minor-leagues-prospects"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116046684984654181","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=564170"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/564170\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/564171"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=564170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=564170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=564170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}