For the fourth straight season, Tink Hence has made the VEB top prospects list and he\u2019s been a top 10 player every season. I think he was actually top 5 in the previous three years. Some of that is because Hence\u2019s health issues have become a little more concerning, but if you took the exact type of prospect Hence is now and tried to place him in past years\u2019 list, I think he\u2019d rank higher than 10. So it\u2019s also a function of the system being stronger.<\/p>\n
JJ WetherholtLiam DoyleRainiel RodriguezQuinn Mathews(or 6) Joshua Baez(or 5) Jurrangelo CjintjeLeonardo BernalJimmy CrooksBrandon ClarkeTink Hence<\/p>\n
Jurrangelo Cjintje
I\u2019m going to make this introduction every time because this may be the first prospect vote you\u2019ve seen. When the Cardinals traded Brendan Donovan, we had already ranked the first 7 prospects. Cjintje was by most measures going to be somewhere in that top 7. So instead of starting over, Cjintje is facing off against the prospects, one-by-one, head-to-head, until he loses. He defeated Crooks in a head-to-head and then Bernal on Monday. Today you have to decide if Cjintje or Joshua Baez is the better prospect. If Cjintje wins, he then faces Quinn Mathews. If he loses, he will be the #6 prospect in the system. Scouting report below:<\/p>\n
\u201cCjintje is technically a switch pitcher, but it is very clear from the scouting and the numbers that he is a far better pitcher right-handed. From the right side, Cjintje throws mid-90s and has topped at 99 mph. He has both a cutter and a sweeper, though the sweeper is the better pitch. He also throws an upper-80s change. From his left side, he is effectively a two-pitch pitcher, throwing low 90s with a solid sweeper. Statistically, it wasn\u2019t close. He walked more than he struck out and allowed 7 homers in 21 innings from the left side, but from the right side he had a 5.0 K\/BB ratio and only allowed 3 homers in 34.1 IP.\u201c<\/p>\n
Sometimes, I find a player comparison that just seems natural. I find two players who feel like they should be compared to each other. They are roughly similar prospects, they play the same position, and they\u2019re even the same handedness. The only difference is strikeouts and proximity to the big leagues.<\/p>\n
Braden Davis was a 5th round draft choice in 2024. With an elite change that produces crazy swing-and-miss, Davis struck out 33% of batters at both Low A and High A. The rest of his arsenal is not quite as good and he has some serious issues with walking batters (16.6% for the season), but he will be 23-years-old and is probably 5-10 great starts away from being in AA next season. Or at least 5-10 starts of a normal walk rate away.<\/p>\n
Pete Hansen was a 3rd round draft pick back in 2022 and he\u2019s pretty much excelled one level at a time since then. He doesn\u2019t necessarily have an elite pitch, but he does have great command of his pitches, walking just 6% of batters last year. With a strong 46% GB rate and 21.1 K%, he had pretty good numbers in a hitting environment. No question where the 25-year-old will be in 2025: AAA.<\/p>\n
The Tanner Franklin experience is making me trust my gut a bit more. I had a feeling he wasn\u2019t going to be like most guys I add and slowly build up votes. I actually have two guys who give me that feeling right now. So I\u2019m going to trust my gut again and put both on the ballot. Unfortunately, neither of those guys is Tai Peete. This is becoming something of a running bit at this point. I am also, for now, removing Ryan Mitchell from the voting. Sorry. There\u2019s too many names. Mitchell has gotten three votes total in his two polls. He will get added back in, but right now I\u2019d rather see if a different name will do better first.<\/p>\n
And as a consolation, if either Mitchell, Peete, or anyone else I add win the very first vote I put them on, the next vote I\u2019ll have them face off against the guy ahead of them just to be safe. Similar to what I\u2019m doing with Cjintje. Because if they win the first vote, I added them too late. Franklin is a good example of it working out well. He absolutely needed to be in the previous vote, but because he didn\u2019t win, I know I didn\u2019t add him too late.<\/p>\n
I\u2019m adding Nathan Church because of Moises Gomez and Matt Koperniak, essentially. I do not think they are similar prospects. Koperniak was old and Gomez had swing-and-miss issues. But broadly speaking, this describes all three: non-prospect who has a breakout great season and is seemingly MLB-ready on Day One. Based on past voting, it kind of feels like I need to give you a chance to vote for Church now. It\u2019s a better system, so who knows where he\u2019ll land, but he would be between 10-15 in years past guaranteed.<\/p>\n
I also want to add Yhoiker Fajardo, mainly because it wouldn\u2019t totally shock me if he pulled a Franklin essentially. Just leapfrogs a bunch of guys in the voting. It also wouldn\u2019t shock me if he barely got any votes. You guys did not like him when I compared him to Tanner Franklin. But just the fact that I think the former is possible is enough to put him on the vote.<\/p>\n
Stats (High A): 416 PAs, .244\/.327\/.397, 10.3 BB%, 18.5 K%, .153 ISO, .270 BABIP, 116 wRC+, 121 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting (FG): 30\/45 Hit, 35\/50 Game Power, 50\/55 Raw Power, 40\/40 Speed, 40\/45 Fielding<\/p>\n
Baez is somewhat fascinating, especially in light of Keith Law\u2019s negative assessment of his character, because on the one hand, character very much impacts a prospect\u2019s ability to reach their full potential. It seems like whatever scouts (or Law specifically) looks for in a player that will reach their max potential, he does not have. It\u2019s also very nebulous though. Oh yeah and he was 20-years-old last year. And so far, it hasn\u2019t affected performance at all. Good luck trying to place this profile on a list.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 129 PAs, .336\/.380\/.563, 6.2 BB%, 7.8 K%, .227 ISO, .327 BABIP, 157 wRC+, 136 DRC+<\/p>\n
AAA: 242 PAs, .335\/.400\/.521, 9.9 BB%, 10.3 K%, .186 ISO, .338 BABIP 144 wRC+, 132 DRC+<\/p>\n
MLB: 65 PAs, .179\/.254\/.250, 4.6 BB%, 27.7 K%, .071 ISO, .237 BABIP, 46 wRC+, 78 DRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting: 55\/55 Hit, 35\/35 Game Power, 40\/40 Raw Power, 55\/55 Speed, 45\/45 Field<\/p>\n
Church deviates from my examples above in many ways, but the most interesting of which is the fact that he actually got to debut in the major leagues. A fact that actually might hurt him in comparison. Had Gomez or Koperniak debuted and hit the way Church hit, I don\u2019t think Gomez is anywhere near 10th in voting and I kind of think Koperniak misses the list entirely. So that\u2019s a wrinkle that may change the comparison in voting.<\/p>\n
Yhoiker Fajardo, RHP – 19<\/p>\n
Stats (CPX): 6 G, 20.2 IP, 31.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 51.2 GB%, .205 BABIP, 0.44 ERA\/2.41 FIP\/3.29 xFIP<\/p>\n
Low A: 13 GS, 51.1 IP, 27.8 K%, 9.4 BB%, 50 GB%, .326 BABIP, 2.98 ERA\/2.50 FIP\/3.14 xFIP<\/p>\n
Scouting: 40\/45 Fastball, 55\/60 Slider, 30\/50 Change, 35\/50 Command<\/p>\n
I had, by the way, always intended to add Fajardo when Franklin was close to being selected. So when he was high in the voting, I was like okay I need to get him on the list soon. In a way I\u2019m replacing Mitchell with a very different kind of 19-year-old prospect. I always wonder when a player this young has a season like this if Low A was on the Red Sox\u2019 radar at the beginning of the season or did he just essentially force them to promote him because he dominated. Did they intend for him to throw 72 innings? It\u2019s in line with the progression you want to see, but if he pitched poorly in the complex, he isn\u2019t getting promoted to Low A, and no way is he throwing 70 innings if he\u2019s never promoted. Anyway, he can throw about 100 this year, so that\u2019s nice for the Cardinals.<\/p>\n
Tanner Franklin, 22 – RHP<\/p>\n
Stats: 3 GS, 6 IP, 32.1 K%, 17.9 BB%, 66.7 GB%, .333 BABIP, 1.50 ERA\/3.95 FIP\/4.28 xFIP<\/p>\n
Scouting: 60\/70 Fastball, 40\/55 Slider, 30\/40 Change, 40\/45 Cutter, 30\/40 Command<\/p>\n
My conception of when I was going to add Franklin was way off, and yet it appears that my conception of when I suspect he\u2019d be selected seems about right. So why exactly did he keep losing head to head polls? He is probably going to be a higher ranked prospect than two players that he beat directly in a head to head voting matchup. That\u2019s kind of bizarre right? There\u2019s something about his profile that makes a significant portion of people doubt him, but of the people who believe in him, they\u2019re all-in.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 132 IP, 25.2 K%, 9.6 BB%, 37.1 GB%, .278 BABIP, 2.59 ERA\/3.16 FIP\/4.00 xFIP\/4.51 DRA<\/p>\n
Scouting: 50\/60 Fastball, 45\/50 Slider, 30\/40 Change, 40\/45 Cutter, 40\/50 Command<\/p>\n
Henderson looks like a less exciting prospect after the big infusion of pitching talent the Cardinals have undergone the last few seasons. This is for two reasons: the other guys, for the most part, have more upside. But also, the Cardinals are significantly less reliant specifically on Henderson working out than they were just a year ago. That means he\u2019ll get less attention. Which is fine because I hope the Cardinals continue finding under the radar pitchers in the new regime to complement the higher upside arms.<\/p>\n
Scouting: 55\/55 Fastball, 55\/60 Slider, 50\/50 Change, 45\/50 Cutter, 45\/50 Command<\/p>\n
Now that Hence is selected and Roby is close behind, Hjerpe will really be the last high upside, big injury risk pitcher left. It makes sense that he\u2019s barely got votes thus far, because I would find it crazy to vote for Hjerpe over the pitchers already selected. But if a high upside, big injury risk pitcher is your thing, he will probably get those votes now. Or next vote I guess. The lukewarm reception to Hjerpe will have no real excuses if he continues to not get votes once Roby is on the list.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 25 GS, 114.2 IP, 28.6 K%, 7.1 BB%. 41.2 GB%, .286 BABIP, 2.98 ERA\/3.58 FIP\/3.20 xFIP\/4.54 DRA<\/p>\n
Scouting: 45\/45 Fastball, 55\/55 Slider, 45\/50 Curve, 30\/35 Change, 50\/55 Command<\/p>\n
Fangraphs released the Cardinals list recently and with that came some updated scouting. If you were wondering, the pitches did not collectively change a lot. The fastball and slider were the exact same, his actual and potential both improved by 5, but his change went down 5 in both actual and potential. His command current took a bump but his potential remained at 55. Basically, they think he\u2019s a slightly better pitcher than when he was graded on last year\u2019s list, but his potential hasn\u2019t moved.<\/p>\n
Stats (Low A): 320 PAs, .285\/.406\/.446, 15.3 BB%, 27.5 K%, .162 ISO, .386 BABIP, 145 wRC+, 119 DRC+<\/p>\n
High A: 130 PAs, .336\/.438\/.500, 13.8 BB%, 22.3 K%, .164 ISO, .436 BABIP, 168 wRC+, 97 DRC+<\/p>\n
Somewhat unbelievably, Fangraphs gave an updated list and yet I still have no scouting numbers for Deniel Ortiz. Whether or not you think Ortiz should be a top 20 prospect, is is objectively insane that he is not among the top 53 by Fangraphs. I have been very open that I\u2019m more of a scouting the stat line guy than probably wise, but I feel like certainly stats alone should get you on the top 53. It\u2019s not like he did this in the Dominican Summer League. Or when he was old for his level. Age-appropriate (young if anything), elite performance across two levels – I mean he should be above most relievers at minimum, no?<\/p>\n
Stats (CPX): 38 G, 148 PAs, .283\/.396\/.367, 12.2 BB%, 14.2 K%, .083 ISO, .340 BABIP, 119 wRC+<\/p>\n
Scouting: 25\/55 Hit, 20\/55 Game Power, 40\/60 Raw Power, 50\/40 Speed, 30\/40 Field<\/p>\n
I don\u2019t think I like the fielding potential here. I am aware that he might not stick at SS and that he might not ultimately be a good defender, but a 40 grade seems absurdly low for 19-year-old still learning the position. Like they\u2019re calling that his potential. If that\u2019s his potential, he\u2019d be moved off SS already I think. On the flip side to be fair, that is a very, very encouraging power projection that hasn\u2019t really shown up in the stats at all. So you take the good with the bad.<\/p>\n
Stats (AA): 10 GS, 47 IP, 31.1 K%, 6 BB%, 42.9 GB%, .273 BABIP, 2.49 ERA\/2.90 FIP\/2.73 xFIP\/4.56 DRA<\/p>\n
AAA: 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 22.6 K%, 6 BB%, 44.7 GB%, .319 BABIP, 4.02 ERA\/4.01 FIP\/4.04 xFIP\/4.50 DRA<\/p>\n
45\/50 Fastball, 55\/55 Slider, 70\/70 Curve, 40\/60 Change, 40\/40 Command<\/p>\n
It\u2019s really quite too bad Roby got injured and needed Tommy John. I am genuinely curious where he would have ranked if he ended the season healthy. He had fully returned as a prospect with fairly dominant numbers at AA. He was then solid, but nothing special in his 6 starts in AAA. I think merely being healthy would see him get a big boost with the exact same stats, but there\u2019s also a world where he adjusts to AAA fairly quickly and improves his numbers.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For the fourth straight season, Tink Hence has made the VEB top prospects list and he\u2019s been a…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":568450,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2403],"tags":[5,160,4,6213,673,67,4311,4310,38503],"class_list":{"0":"post-568449","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-st-louis-cardinals","8":"tag-baseball","9":"tag-cardinals","10":"tag-mlb","11":"tag-st-louis-cardinals-news","12":"tag-st-louis","13":"tag-st-louis-cardinals","14":"tag-stlouis","15":"tag-stlouiscardinals","16":"tag-veb-daily"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@mlb\/116058611082351675","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568449","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=568449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/568449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/568450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=568449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=568449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/mlb\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=568449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}